Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
404 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2011

.DISCUSSION...

...HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND BEACH EROSION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

TODAY-TONIGHT...HIGH POPS ARE THE RULE AS GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW
GENERATES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WHILE CUT OFF LOW ALOFT OVER
THE EASTERN GULF PROVIDES LARGE SCALE LIFT. MAIN CONCERNS ARE
TRAINING OF ECHOES AND RESULTING HEAVY RAIN THREAT. EXPECT AN INCH
OR TWO OF RAINFALL ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. INLAND AREAS SHOULD GET A HALF TO ONE INCH
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

SO FAR THE HEAVY AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN SPREAD OUT BUT OVER THE
COURSE OF ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS THIS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE THE CASE.
HENCE THE FLOOD WATCH IS WELL WARRANTED. RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGING
4-8 INCHES ON THE COAST AND 2-4 INCHES INLAND SEEM REASONABLE. AS
ALWAYS WITH THESE KINDS OF RAIN EVENTS...PERSISTENCE OF RAINFALL
BANDS CAN RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...AND OVER 10
INCHES IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST.

HAVE ALSO HAD A FEW REPORTS OF MINOR TREE DAMAGE IN SQUALLS. WITH
35 KNOT WINDS INDICATED BY THE CANAVERAL PROFILERS IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THINK THAT A WIND ADVISORY IS PRUDENT ALONG THE COAST.
WILL ALSO INCLUDE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE INTERIOR.

OF COURSE THE SURF WILL BE VERY DANGEROUS...EVEN WITH A SURF
BOARD...AND VENTURING INTO THE OCEAN IS NOT ADVISED. BEACH EROSION
WILL CONTINUE TO ADD UP AND EVENTUALLY WILL BECOME SIGNIFICANT IN
SPOTS.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...
A STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL INTERACT WITH A
BROAD TROF OVER THE NW CARIB/FL STRAITS TO MAINTAIN A DEEP ERLY FLOW
ACRS CENTRAL FL. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW THE TROF WILL EVOLVE BY
DAYBREAK SUN.

AN H30-H20 TROF AXIS OVER THE ERN GOMEX WILL PLACE REGION UNDER ITS
ASCENDING SIDE...RESULTING IN GOOD UPR LVL DIVERGENCE THAT SHOULD
ALLOW THE TROF TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL BY DAYBREAK SUN. ONCE THE LOW FORMS...HOWEVER...IT WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED BLO AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. INTERACTION BTWN THESE TWO
WX FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A STRONG E/SE FLOW THAT WILL TAP DEEP
MOISTURE OVER THE SRN BAHAMAS/GREATER ANTILLES.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL WARM A BIT AS H50 TEMPS ASSOCD WITH THE AIRMASS ARE
BTWN -7C AND -8C...REDUCING THE THREAT OF SVR WX. HOWEVER...RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH AS THESE WINDS PUSH A TIGHT ISENTROPIC
GRADIENT INTO THE FL PENINSULA. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE.
LOW DIURNAL TEMP FLUX AS HIGH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COOLED AIR KEEPS
MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M80S...WHILE STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BLANKET
EFFECT OF THE HIGH CLOUD COVER KEEPS MIN TEMPS IN THE L/M70S.

MON-MON NIGHT...
THE EAST COAST RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS THE GOMEX LOW
PUSHES NORTH AND A HI AMP TROF OVER THE GREAT PLAINS PUSHES EAST.
DRIER AIR OVER THE WRN GOMEX WILL WRAP AROUND THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
THE GOMEX LOW AND INTO FL...RESULTING IN MUCH LWR PRECIP CHANCES TO
START THE WORK WEEK. POPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG THE COAST TO ACCOUNT
FOR PSBL SEABREEZE FORMATION AND LONGER DURATION FOR DRY AIR
ADVECTION...BUT OVERALL POPS WILL BE AOB 40%. DECREASED PRECIP AND
SWRLY FLOW WILL ALLONW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE U80S/L90S INTERIOR...
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE M/U80S.  LIGHT
SRLY FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE L/M70S.

TUE-FRI...
FCST WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE GOMEX LOW AND HOW QUICKLY
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES INTO THE WRN ATLC.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THAT BRING THE BROAD CENTER OF THE
SFC LOW ACRS THE FL PENINSULA ON WED THEN OFF THE MID ATLC COAST BY
DAYBREAK THU. SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE AS BY MID WEEK A 120KT
H30-H20 JET STREAK OVER THE N PAC WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE WRN
CONUS AND ADD ITS ENERGY TO THE DEEP TROF ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE ERODES...THE GOMEX LOW WILL LIFT NE ACRS THE
STATE. NWRLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL PULL DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO FL BY LATE WEEK...DROPPING PRECIP CHANCES BLO
MENTIONABLE LVLS. TEMPS LARGELY WITHIN 2-3F OF CLIMO AVG.

&&

.AVIATION...
A HIGH COVERAGE OF RAINFALL TODAY WITH SQUALLS/STORMS PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. TIMING WHICH TERMINALS
GET THESE BURSTS OF HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS IS FUTILE BEYOND A FEW
HOURS IN ADVANCE. EXPECT SOME VISIBILITIES TO DROP BELOW 1 MILE
AS THE SQUALLS PASS BUT HAVE NOT INDICATED THAT YET IN THE TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...VERY HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT WITH STRONG ADVISORY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN
SQUALLS.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...PGRAD WILL TIGHTEN AS A WEAK LOW FORMS OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL/SE GOMEX AND INTERACTS WITH A STRONG HI PRES RIDGE
OVER THE ERN CONUS. SUSTAINED SFC/BNDRY LYR WNDS INCREASING TO
25-30KTS BY SUN AFTN WITH OCNL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE IN NMRS SQUALLS
AND ISOLD TSRAS. SEAS BUILDING TO 10-12FT NEARSHORE AND UP TO 16FT
IN THE GULF STREAM. WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR THE LCL ATLC WATERS
FROM 08Z SUN CONTG THRU DAYBREAK MON.

ON-MON NIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND VEER TO THE SE AS THE RIDGE
AXIS BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND THE SFC LOW REMAINS TRAPPED OVER THE
GOMEX.  SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOA
SCA LVLS THROUGH THE EARLY TUE MORNING.

TUE-WED...S/SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL AS THE GOMEX LOW PUSHES ACRS THE
FL PENINSULA AND WORKS ITS WAY UP THE ERN SEABOARD. SCA SEAS MAY
LINGER OVER THE OFFSHORE LEG INTO TUE AFTN...BUT SHOULD FALL BLO 6FT
AREAWIDE BY DAYBREAK WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  75  84  75 /  80  80  70  60
MCO  81  70  84  72 /  80  70  70  50
MLB  82  76  83  75 /  90  80  70  50
VRB  83  78  83  74 /  90  80  70  50
LEE  81  70  83  71 /  80  70  70  50
SFB  81  71  85  72 /  80  70  70  50
ORL  81  71  84  72 /  80  70  70  50
FPR  82  78  83  74 /  90  80  60  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN
     RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-OKEECHOBEE-
     ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-ST. LUCIE.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-
     INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN BREVARD-ST.
     LUCIE.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-
     INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN BREVARD-ST.
     LUCIE.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INLAND
     VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
     SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
     20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM....BRAGAW

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