Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
404 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2011

.DISCUSSION...

...HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND BEACH EROSION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

TODAY-TONIGHT...HIGH POPS ARE THE RULE AS GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW
GENERATES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WHILE CUT OFF LOW ALOFT OVER
THE EASTERN GULF PROVIDES LARGE SCALE LIFT. MAIN CONCERNS ARE
TRAINING OF ECHOES AND RESULTING HEAVY RAIN THREAT. EXPECT AN INCH
OR TWO OF RAINFALL ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. INLAND AREAS SHOULD GET A HALF TO ONE INCH
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

SO FAR THE HEAVY AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN SPREAD OUT BUT OVER THE
COURSE OF ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS THIS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE THE CASE.
HENCE THE FLOOD WATCH IS WELL WARRANTED. RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGING
4-8 INCHES ON THE COAST AND 2-4 INCHES INLAND SEEM REASONABLE. AS
ALWAYS WITH THESE KINDS OF RAIN EVENTS...PERSISTENCE OF RAINFALL
BANDS CAN RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...AND OVER 10
INCHES IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST.

HAVE ALSO HAD A FEW REPORTS OF MINOR TREE DAMAGE IN SQUALLS. WITH
35 KNOT WINDS INDICATED BY THE CANAVERAL PROFILERS IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THINK THAT A WIND ADVISORY IS PRUDENT ALONG THE COAST.
WILL ALSO INCLUDE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE INTERIOR.

OF COURSE THE SURF WILL BE VERY DANGEROUS...EVEN WITH A SURF
BOARD...AND VENTURING INTO THE OCEAN IS NOT ADVISED. BEACH EROSION
WILL CONTINUE TO ADD UP AND EVENTUALLY WILL BECOME SIGNIFICANT IN
SPOTS.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...
A STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL INTERACT WITH A
BROAD TROF OVER THE NW CARIB/FL STRAITS TO MAINTAIN A DEEP ERLY FLOW
ACRS CENTRAL FL. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW THE TROF WILL EVOLVE BY
DAYBREAK SUN.

AN H30-H20 TROF AXIS OVER THE ERN GOMEX WILL PLACE REGION UNDER ITS
ASCENDING SIDE...RESULTING IN GOOD UPR LVL DIVERGENCE THAT SHOULD
ALLOW THE TROF TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL BY DAYBREAK SUN. ONCE THE LOW FORMS...HOWEVER...IT WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED BLO AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. INTERACTION BTWN THESE TWO
WX FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A STRONG E/SE FLOW THAT WILL TAP DEEP
MOISTURE OVER THE SRN BAHAMAS/GREATER ANTILLES.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL WARM A BIT AS H50 TEMPS ASSOCD WITH THE AIRMASS ARE
BTWN -7C AND -8C...REDUCING THE THREAT OF SVR WX. HOWEVER...RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH AS THESE WINDS PUSH A TIGHT ISENTROPIC
GRADIENT INTO THE FL PENINSULA. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE.
LOW DIURNAL TEMP FLUX AS HIGH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COOLED AIR KEEPS
MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M80S...WHILE STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BLANKET
EFFECT OF THE HIGH CLOUD COVER KEEPS MIN TEMPS IN THE L/M70S.

MON-MON NIGHT...
THE EAST COAST RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS THE GOMEX LOW
PUSHES NORTH AND A HI AMP TROF OVER THE GREAT PLAINS PUSHES EAST.
DRIER AIR OVER THE WRN GOMEX WILL WRAP AROUND THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
THE GOMEX LOW AND INTO FL...RESULTING IN MUCH LWR PRECIP CHANCES TO
START THE WORK WEEK. POPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG THE COAST TO ACCOUNT
FOR PSBL SEABREEZE FORMATION AND LONGER DURATION FOR DRY AIR
ADVECTION...BUT OVERALL POPS WILL BE AOB 40%. DECREASED PRECIP AND
SWRLY FLOW WILL ALLONW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE U80S/L90S INTERIOR...
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE M/U80S.  LIGHT
SRLY FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE L/M70S.

TUE-FRI...
FCST WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE GOMEX LOW AND HOW QUICKLY
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES INTO THE WRN ATLC.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THAT BRING THE BROAD CENTER OF THE
SFC LOW ACRS THE FL PENINSULA ON WED THEN OFF THE MID ATLC COAST BY
DAYBREAK THU. SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE AS BY MID WEEK A 120KT
H30-H20 JET STREAK OVER THE N PAC WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE WRN
CONUS AND ADD ITS ENERGY TO THE DEEP TROF ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE ERODES...THE GOMEX LOW WILL LIFT NE ACRS THE
STATE. NWRLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL PULL DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO FL BY LATE WEEK...DROPPING PRECIP CHANCES BLO
MENTIONABLE LVLS. TEMPS LARGELY WITHIN 2-3F OF CLIMO AVG.

&&

.AVIATION...
A HIGH COVERAGE OF RAINFALL TODAY WITH SQUALLS/STORMS PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. TIMING WHICH TERMINALS
GET THESE BURSTS OF HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS IS FUTILE BEYOND A FEW
HOURS IN ADVANCE. EXPECT SOME VISIBILITIES TO DROP BELOW 1 MILE
AS THE SQUALLS PASS BUT HAVE NOT INDICATED THAT YET IN THE TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...VERY HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT WITH STRONG ADVISORY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN
SQUALLS.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...PGRAD WILL TIGHTEN AS A WEAK LOW FORMS OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL/SE GOMEX AND INTERACTS WITH A STRONG HI PRES RIDGE
OVER THE ERN CONUS. SUSTAINED SFC/BNDRY LYR WNDS INCREASING TO
25-30KTS BY SUN AFTN WITH OCNL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE IN NMRS SQUALLS
AND ISOLD TSRAS. SEAS BUILDING TO 10-12FT NEARSHORE AND UP TO 16FT
IN THE GULF STREAM. WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR THE LCL ATLC WATERS
FROM 08Z SUN CONTG THRU DAYBREAK MON.

ON-MON NIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND VEER TO THE SE AS THE RIDGE
AXIS BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND THE SFC LOW REMAINS TRAPPED OVER THE
GOMEX.  SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOA
SCA LVLS THROUGH THE EARLY TUE MORNING.

TUE-WED...S/SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL AS THE GOMEX LOW PUSHES ACRS THE
FL PENINSULA AND WORKS ITS WAY UP THE ERN SEABOARD. SCA SEAS MAY
LINGER OVER THE OFFSHORE LEG INTO TUE AFTN...BUT SHOULD FALL BLO 6FT
AREAWIDE BY DAYBREAK WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  75  84  75 /  80  80  70  60
MCO  81  70  84  72 /  80  70  70  50
MLB  82  76  83  75 /  90  80  70  50
VRB  83  78  83  74 /  90  80  70  50
LEE  81  70  83  71 /  80  70  70  50
SFB  81  71  85  72 /  80  70  70  50
ORL  81  71  84  72 /  80  70  70  50
FPR  82  78  83  74 /  90  80  60  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN
     RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-OKEECHOBEE-
     ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-ST. LUCIE.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-
     INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN BREVARD-ST.
     LUCIE.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-
     INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN BREVARD-ST.
     LUCIE.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INLAND
     VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
     SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
     20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM....BRAGAW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
545 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2011

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-081630-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
545 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY WEST AROUND 30 MPH WILL OCCUR.
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO START REPEATING
ACROSS THE SAME AREAS. LOCAL RAIN AMOUNTS TO AROUND 4 INCHES CAN
BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. EVENTUALLY THERE WILL BE
SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS DEVELOP AS THE HEAVY RAIN FALLS ON ALREADY
SATURATED GROUND. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

.HIGH WIND IMPACT...
STRONG LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS. MINOR DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES WILL
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM FALLING TREE LIMBS. A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL BOATS ON AREA LAKES.

.COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT...
THE OCEAN WILL BE LIKE A WASHING MACHINE AS GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
OVER THE ATLANTIC GENERATE HIGH SEAS AND FREQUENT LARGE BREAKING
WAVES ALONG THE BEACHES. VENTURING INTO THE SURF WILL BE HAZARDOUS...
EVEN FOR THOSE ON SURF BOARDS. LARGE WAVES BREAKING ON JETTIES
WILL ALSO OCCUR. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. DUE TO THE
PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS LARGE WAVE EVENT...BEACH EROSION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME SIGNIFICANT.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
THE PRIMARY BEACH HAZARD TODAY WILL BE LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BREAKING WAVES. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS CAN OCCUR IN
THESE ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY NEAR PIERS AND JETTIES.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
WIDESPREAD SQUALLS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 40 KNOTS.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE WILL PRODUCE VERY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.
WAVE HEIGHTS TO AROUND 15 FEET WILL OCCUR IN THE OPEN ATLANTIC. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT BUT IT MAY BE UPGRADED TO A GALE
WARNING BY LATE TONIGHT. ONLY VERY SEA WORTHY VESSELS WITH
EXPERIENCED CAPTAINS SHOULD LEAVE PORT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDY CONDITIONS AND A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

MARINE CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN VERY HAZARDOUS WITH
POSSIBLE GALE CONDITIONS OCCURRING. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DANGEROUS SURF AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY TUESDAY...BUT THE RISK
OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND REPORT MINOR
DAMAGE...FLOODING AND RAINFALL TOTALS OVER 3 INCHES.

LASCODY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
211 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2011

FLZ047-080700-
SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
211 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH OVER SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY...

* UNTIL 300 AM EDT.

AT 206 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SCATTERED SQUALLS MOVING WEST AT 30 MPH ALONG AND OFFSHORE BETWEEN
COCOA BEACH AND SEBASTIAN INLET

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE SQUALLS WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
INCLUDE INDIAN HARBOUR BEACH...SUNTREE...VIERA AND MELBOURNE.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN
CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE
POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY.
SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2787 8048 2791 8049 2791 8050 2788 8049
      2787 8049 2783 8084 2834 8081 2835 8070
      2834 8066 2832 8065 2835 8064 2835 8060
      2813 8057 2787 8045
TIME...MOT...LOC 0609Z 091DEG 25KT 2823 8056

RL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
519 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2011

FLZ047-081015-
SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
519 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH OVER SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY...

* UNTIL 615 AM EDT.

AT 514 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF
GRANT...MOVING WEST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
INCLUDE MELBOURNE BEACH AND WEST MELBOURNE.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2788 8048 2791 8049 2791 8051 2788 8050
      2789 8082 2826 8083 2828 8066 2822 8063
      2828 8061 2807 8055 2806 8054 2802 8053
      2788 8046
TIME...MOT...LOC 0919Z 104DEG 44KT 2802 8042

BRAGAW

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
806 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2011

FLZ047-147-081300-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
806 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BREVARD COUNTY...

* UNTIL 900 AM EDT.

AT 804 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF SQUALLS FROM MELBOURNE NORTHWARD TO THE VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE SQUALLS WERE MOVING WEST AT 35 MPH.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...
WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS
OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE
VISIBILITY AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR.

SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE SQUALLS PASS.

LAT...LON 2842 8057 2836 8060 2811 8057 2813 8061
      2810 8061 2809 8086 2835 8086 2843 8090
      2849 8087 2861 8097 2879 8097 2879 8079
      2871 8071 2873 8070 2879 8075 2880 8073
      2859 8057 2846 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 1204Z 180DEG 0KT 2841 8063

CRISTALDI