Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1005 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011

.DISCUSSION...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...

THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS SINCE LATE AFTN. ONE CELL OFFSHORE
MARTIN COUNTY LIKELY PRODUCE A TORNADIC WATERSPOUT BASED ON DEEP
STRONG ROTATION SEEN BUT IT DISSIPATED BEFORE REACHING THE COAST.
HAVE ALSO SEEN SOME STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OVER THE ATLC. WINDY
ONSHORE FLOW (070-090 DEGREES) WILL PUSH INCREASINGLY HIGHER
COVERAGE OF MARINE INDUCED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WELL INLAND.
COASTAL CONVERGENCE WILL HELP WITH GIVING CELLS A BOOST. CONVERGENCE
LINES WILL PRODUCE TRAINING HEAVY PCPN IN SOME SELECTED AREAS ALONG
THE COAST LEADING TO LOCALLY HIGH AMOUNTS...ESP ALONG THE COAST
OVERNIGHT. FLOOD WATCH POSTED FOR ALL CO'S EXCEPT LAKE INTO
SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE REGIME WL FAVOR COASTAL AREAS FOR HIGHEST RAIN
AMTS BASED ON PRIOR CASE HISTORIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT/NMRS MVFR SHRAS AND ISOLD IFR TSRAS COASTAL SITES SFC WIND GUSTS
25+ KNOTS ESP WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY. PREVAILING CIGS AOA FL060. NO
LETUP EXPECTED IN THESE PREVAILING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OCCURRING AT NOAA BUOY 009 AND
ACROSS ALL THE WATERS. SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS ARND 20KTS GUSTING
25-30KTS...STEEP SEAS 4-6FT NEARSHORE AND 6-9FT OFFSHORE WITH DOMINANT
PDS BTWN 7-8SEC. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A LARGE AND STRONG HIGH
PRES RIDGE BLANKETING THE ERN CONUS MAINTAINS A FRESH TO STRONG E/NE
BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC. SFC GUSTS AOA 34KTS PSBL IN NUMEROUS SHRAS
AND ISOLD TSRAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  81  73  81 /  70  80  70  70
MCO  70  81  70  82 /  60  80  70  60
MLB  74  82  73  82 /  70  80  70  60
VRB  75  83  77  84 /  80  80  80  60
LEE  70  81  70  82 /  60  70  70  60
SFB  71  82  71  83 /  70  80  70  60
ORL  71  82  71  82 /  60  80  70  60
FPR  75  83  77  84 /  80  90  80  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-
     OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-ST. LUCIE.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-
     INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN BREVARD-ST.
     LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
     20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

KELLY/WIMMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
603 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-080100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
603 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
LINES OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL MOVE TO THE WEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. AS THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS COME ASHORE THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND LIGHTNING STRIKES AT THE COAST
AND INLAND TO THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BEFORE STARTING TO DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
PERIODIC HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALREADY HAS OCCURRED IN THE MARTIN
AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES...AND ACROSS NORTHERN VOLUSIA COUNTY. THE
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL CAUSE LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS TO
FLOOD THAT WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. A FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL
VOLUSIA...INDIAN RIVER...INLAND VOLUSIA...MARTIN...NORTHERN
BREVARD...OKEECHOBEE...ORANGE... OSCEOLA...SEMINOLE...SOUTHERN
BREVARD AND ST. LUCIE COUNTIES.

.COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT...
STEADY EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERATE ROUGH SURF ALONG AREA
BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE WAVES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MINOR BEACH EROSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HIGH TIDE CYCLES. A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BEGIN AT 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF WIND GUSTS OVER 34 KNOTS.
GIVEN THE ROUGH CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
AND THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY...BOATERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN
PORT OR AT DOCK.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A FRESH TO STRONG EAST NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC...GENERATING SEAS BETWEEN TO 7 FEET A FEW MILES OFF
THE COAST TO 12 FEET WELL OFFSHORE IN THE GULF STREAM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA. COMBINED WITH A SURFACE
BOUNDARY DROPPING TOWARDS THE PENINSULA...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...AND
INCREASING MOISTURE...A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA. STAY TUNED FOR SPECIFIC HAZARDS RELATED TO LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT AND OR THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS.

SEAS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SURF AND POSSIBLE
BEACH EROSION AT HIGH TIDE. WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALSO
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIP CURRENT THREAT
AT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES WILL BE MODERATE TO HIGH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

WIMMER

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
946 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011

FLZ041-141-080230-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-
946 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH OVER NORTHERN VOLUSIA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 1030 PM EDT.

AT 944 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER ORMOND BEACH...
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
INCLUDE DAYTONA INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY...AND ORMOND BY THE SEA.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2918 8098 2897 8130 2925 8145 2927 8138
      2927 8116 2933 8116 2936 8106
TIME...MOT...LOC 0146Z 065DEG 22KT 2928 8107

KELLY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
953 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011

FLZ047-147-080245-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
953 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH OVER CENTRAL BREVARD COUNTY...

* UNTIL 1045 PM EDT.

AT 948 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER COCOA BEACH...
MOVING WEST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
INCLUDE COCOA AND CANAVERAL GROVES.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2843 8057 2836 8060 2814 8058 2815 8061
      2820 8064 2815 8063 2816 8072 2852 8090
      2851 8077 2841 8074 2850 8074 2849 8064
      2841 8065 2843 8061 2848 8060 2847 8053
      2844 8053
TIME...MOT...LOC 0152Z 092DEG 40KT 2839 8078

67

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1012 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011

FLZ064-080300-
MARTIN-
1012 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH OVER SOUTHEASTERN MARTIN COUNTY...

* UNTIL 1100 PM EDT.

AT 1010 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS APPROACHING SOUTH
JUPITER ISLAND OFF THE ATLANTIC...MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2695 8020 2702 8024 2705 8010 2701 8008
      2697 8007 2697 8014 2695 8015 2695 8017
TIME...MOT...LOC 0211Z 079DEG 20KT 2697 8012

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1034 PM EDT FRI OCT 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW ORMOND BEACH       29.31N 81.10W
10/07/2011                   VOLUSIA            FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.5 FOOT DIAMETER TREE DOWN ACROSS VEHICLE AND WRAPPED IN
            POWER LINES AT 300 BLOCK OF COQUINA AVE. BLOWN
            TRANSFORMER CAUSED POWER OUTAGE ON US 1 BETWEEN COQUINA
            AVE. AND LAWNDERS AVE.

&&

JRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1157 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011

FLZ059-064-080445-
MARTIN-ST. LUCIE-
1157 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH OVER EASTERN MARTIN COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ST.
LUCIE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 1245 AM EDT.

AT 1153 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER HOBE SOUND AND
APPROACHING THE COAST AROUND JENSEN BEACH...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 35
MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
INCLUDE PORT SALERNO...ROCKY POINT AND JENSEN BEACH.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN
CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE
POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY.
SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2696 8032 2721 8053 2731 8025 2729 8024
      2732 8022 2725 8019 2724 8017 2721 8017
      2721 8015 2716 8015 2700 8008 2695 8019
TIME...MOT...LOC 0355Z 054DEG 24KT 2726 7997

RL