Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Milwaukee, WI

321 
WWUS53 KMKX 030803
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
303 AM CDT SAT SEP 3 2011

WIC049-065-111-030815-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0123.000000T0000Z-110903T0815Z/
IOWA WI-LAFAYETTE WI-SAUK WI-
303 AM CDT SAT SEP 3 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
SAUK...LAFAYETTE AND EASTERN IOWA COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM CDT...

AT 258 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF MAZOMANIE TO
BLANCHARDVILLE TO SHULLSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  ARGYLE AROUND 310 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE WIOTA...
GRATIOT...WOODFORD...SOMERS AND SOUTH WAYNE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY 
LEAD TO URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE 
THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4325 9005 4327 8974 4324 8979 4324 8980
      4321 8984 4251 8984 4251 9043
TIME...MOT...LOC 0802Z 270DEG 32KT 4324 8980 4284 8990
          4256 9014
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

HENTZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
233 AM CDT SAT SEP 3 2011

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM EASTERN IOWA ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY
THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTH AS SURFACE LOW NEAR LAKE
WINNIPEG MOVES EAST TO NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING.  FRONT IS
RATHER DIFFUSE WITH A DOUBLE STRUCTURE AND MAIN INSTABILITY
REMAINING SOUTH ALONG BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD SAG SOUTH AND EXTEND
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO NORTHERN INDIANA THIS EVENING.

EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS AIDED BY A WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST
850 MB JET ACROSS IOWA PUSHING TOWARD SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN ALONG
WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
70 KNOT UPPER JET ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE UPPER JET LIFTS
NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING BUT UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES AGAIN
BY AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

HIGH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL REMAIN POOLED ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES.  THEREFORE HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY.
LOCAL 4 KM WRF OFF LAPS BRINGS THE STRONG IOWA MCS ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH 14Z THEN LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS. 03Z HRRR IS
SIMILAR BUT IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE STORMS.   AFTER THAT THE
GENERAL TREND OF THE NAM APPEARS REASONABLE.

BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING THEN
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
WIND DAMAGE.

.SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH

A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FALLING DOWN TO AROUND 1/2 INCH. SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH
THE DAY WITH COOLER HIGHS STRUGGLING TO AROUND 70.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH AND
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN. WILL BE A COOL LABOR DAY...WITH TEMPS
STARTING IN IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WITH LOW
50S NEAR THE LAKE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT COOLER OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS...SO NUDGED HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES. MAY EVEN END UP BEING
COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 60S IF CURRENT MODEL 925 MB TEMPS
OF 9-10C VERIFY. WILL DEFINITELY BE A STARK CONTRAST TO THE 90
DEGREE WEATHER FROM THE LAST TWO DAYS...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME CLOUDS
POSSIBLE AND A NORTHERLY BREEZE.

HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO HOLD PRETTY WELL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATING TO AROUND NORMAL BY THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY.

THE ONLY POSSIBLE HICCUP TO THE CURRENT EXPECTED WEATHER WOULD BE
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM LEE. MODELS ARE NOT IN
GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE LATEST ECMWF DOES SUGGEST
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS THE LOW MEANDERS BACK WESTWARD. TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO ADD POPS...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH
DOWN THE ROAD.

&&

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN FOG/STRATUS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME IFR IN FOG ALSO
EXPECTED SOUTHEAST.

MVFR/IFR ALSO EXPECTED IN AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...

MAINLY LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS
INCREASING NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS LATE TONIGHT.  PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

BRISK NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE WINDS AND RESULTANT WAVES WILL LIKELY REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV/07
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ/06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
802 PM CDT FRI SEP 2 2011

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-031215-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
802 PM CDT FRI SEP 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WOULD
BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...MAINLY
SOUTH OF A LONE ROCK TO HORICON TO PORT WASHINGTON LINE. THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

LMZ643>646-031215-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
802 PM CDT FRI SEP 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR A STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF PORT WASHINGTON. THE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BRISK
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...IN THE
WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE SUBSEQUENT HIGH WAVES ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME...AND INTO TUESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING.

REM
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
147 AM CDT SAT SEP 3 2011

WIZ056-062-067-030745-
IOWA-LAFAYETTE-SAUK-
147 AM CDT SAT SEP 3 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD IOWA AND LAFAYETTE COUNTIES...

AT 144 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 31 MILES WEST OF
DODGEVILLE TO 44 MILES WEST OF DARLINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  BLACKHAWK LAKE RECREATION AREA BY 215 AM CDT...
  LONE ROCK AIRPORT AND BELMONT BY 225 AM CDT...
  MINERAL POINT AIRPORT AND BENTON BY 230 AM CDT...
  GOVERNOR DODGE STATE PARK AND SPRING GREEN BY 235 AM CDT...
  DARLINGTON BY 245 AM CDT...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL
THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

REM