Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
947 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

.UPDATE...
RAIN AND ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL EVENT UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
AT MIDEVENING. GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE LIFTING EAST INTO KS...UNDERCUT A DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS DIFFLUENT FLOW WAS
ENHANCING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A STABLE LAYER EXTENDING UP TO
850MB OVER NORTHEAST AR... AND JUST OFF THE SURFACE OVER NORTHEAST
MS. THIS AIR WAS QUICKLY BECOMING BUOYANT...WITH CAPE TO 500 J/KG
NEAR I40... AND 1000 J/K OVER NORTH MS. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO 8
C/KM AREAWIDE WERE ENHANCING THE HAIL POTENTIAL.

EXPECT AN INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE INTO THE EARLY MORNING...
MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER... AS A SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE
MIDPLAINS VORT AXIS ROTATES THROUGH. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP
ERODE WHAT/S LEFT THE WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.
OVERNIGHT HAIL POTENTIAL MAY WANE SOMEWHAT...WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. OTHER POSSIBLE
NEGATING FACTOR FOR OVERNIGHT SEVERE POTENTIAL IS THE DEVELOPING
LARGE MCS TAKING SHAPE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MS. NORTHEAST
MS WILL BE IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY OVERNIGHT TO INTERCEPT SOME
OF THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVING CELLS OFF THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL MS.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011/

DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SOUTH
MISSOURI...AND PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE. STILL NO REPORTS OF
SMALL HAIL ACROSS ANY OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOR UPSTREAM ACROSS
NORTH ARKANSAS. 5-7 HUNDRED MB LAPSE RATES ARE BETWEEN 7 AND 8
DEGREES C/KM. LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE AT THEIR STEEPEST NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 RIGHT NOW...BUT ONLY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...BY AT MOST A
DEGREE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH...7.25 TO 7.75 DEGREE LAPSE
RATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE A BIT LONGER. EVEN THOUGH LAPSE RATES
ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...PROXIMITY TO AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORT MAX SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT
OF AT LEAST SMALL HAIL IN THE AREA WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS SYSTEM IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT
WIDESPREAD HAIL TO THE MIDSOUTH. THE TWO MAIN DIFFERENCES SHOULD
OFFSET EACH OTHER. THE WARM FRONT IS FARTHER SOUTH BUT THE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE STRONGER. IF A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG AN
INVERTED TROUGH IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AS THE GFS
SUGGESTS...WIND COULD BECOME A BIGGER THREAT IN NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AROUND MIDNIGHT.

EVERYTHING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED
DURING THIS TIME FRAME HOWEVER IN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NORTH WESTERLY
FLOW...DYNAMICS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN AT LEAST A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS MUCH NICER AS A RIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS SHUNTING THE MEAN STORM TRACK TO THE EAST
OF OUR AREA. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST SATURDAY
DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FOR MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S EACH DAY...WITH 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES SUPPORTIVE OF LOW TO MIDDLE 80S IN SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING CLOUD
COVER MAY PREVENT US FROM BECOMING THAT WARM.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...A MORE PROTOTYPICAL SPRING WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS
TO BE IN THE WORKS. UNLIKE THE PAST 2-3 EVENTS THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY HAVE BOTH DYNAMIC AND THERMAL ENERGY WORKING IN ITS
FAVOR. IN ADDITION MULTIPLE DAYS OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD ENSURE ADEQUATE MOISTURE IN IN PLACE.

30/SIRMON

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN PUSHING ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH NORTH OF I-40 DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. GENERALLY
IFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THESE AREAS...WITH
VFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS FURTHER SOUTH. THINK MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA..NAMELY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF KMEM-KMKL BETWEEN 01Z-04Z...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH 08-12Z.

CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
AT IFR LEVELS INTO MID MORNING WEDNESDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER.

BORGHOFF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  44  60  41  58 / 100  10  10  20
MKL  42  57  36  57 / 100  10  10  20
JBR  41  55  39  58 /  70  10  10  30
TUP  51  63  39  62 / 100  30  10  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
314 AM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-301015-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
314 AM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. LARGE HAIL
IS THE MAIN THREAT...WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS
CONFINED TO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
NORTH OF I-40. SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF A FEW STRONG STORMS
TO THE MIDSOUTH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BRING A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-40 LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

JAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
746 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

ARZ009-018-026-MOZ113-115-300115-
CRAIGHEAD AR-CLAY AR-GREENE AR-DUNKLIN MO-PEMISCOT MO-
746 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR...

  SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  NORTH CENTRAL CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  GREENE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  SOUTHERN DUNKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
  WEST CENTRAL PEMISCOT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING UP TO DIME SIZE HAIL WAS LOCATED OVER
WALCOTT AT 745 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CLAY...CRAIGHEAD...DUNKLIN...GREENE AND PEMISCOT
COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR CROWLEYS RIDGE STATE PARK...
KENNETT...LAKE FRIERSON STATE PARK...MARMADUKE...PARAGOULD...RECTOR
AND SENATH...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3639 9005 3612 8992 3593 9070 3610 9078
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 249DEG 57KT 3605 9063

RRH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
804 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

ARZ026-028-MOZ113-115-TNZ048-300130-
CRAIGHEAD AR-MISSISSIPPI AR-DUNKLIN MO-PEMISCOT MO-LAUDERDALE TN-
804 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 830 PM CDT FOR...

  EASTERN CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN DUNKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
  SOUTHWESTERN PEMISCOT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
  NORTH CENTRAL LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING UP TO DIME SIZE HAIL WAS LOCATED
OVER LAKE CITY AT 804 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CRAIGHEAD...DUNKLIN...LAUDERDALE...MISSISSIPPI AND PEMISCOT
COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR BLYTHEVILLE...CARAWAY...
GOSNELL...LAKE CITY...LEACHVILLE...MANILA AND MONETTE...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT ALSO
INCLUDES BIG LAKE.

&&

LAT...LON 3608 8977 3580 8973 3573 9048 3592 9052
TIME...MOT...LOC 0104Z 261DEG 49KT 3584 9038

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
811 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0753 PM     HAIL             EVERGREEN               34.17N 88.52W
03/29/2011  E1.00 INCH       ITAWAMBA           MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERED THE GROUND LIGHTLY.

&&

BORGHOFF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
856 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

ARZ017-018-026-300230-
CRAIGHEAD AR-GREENE AR-LAWRENCE AR-
856 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR...

  CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  SOUTHERN GREENE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES WAS
LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTH OF ALICIA AT 856 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
65 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CRAIGHEAD...GREENE AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES...INCLUDING
LOCATIONS NEAR BONO...BROOKLAND...CROWLEYS RIDGE STATE PARK...
JONESBORO...LAKE FRIERSON STATE PARK AND PARAGOULD...SHOULD MONITOR
THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3614 9046 3591 9034 3571 9100 3571 9105
      3588 9104 3589 9111 3590 9111
TIME...MOT...LOC 0156Z 247DEG 55KT 3580 9103

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1012 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

MSZ017-024-300345-
ITAWAMBA MS-MONROE MS-
1012 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1045 PM CDT FOR...

  SOUTHERN ITAWAMBA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHERN MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE WAS LOCATED
OVER NEW WREN AT 1012 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PEOPLE IN ITAWAMBA AND MONROE COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
AMORY...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY
AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3413 8819 3408 8819 3399 8821 3385 8866
      3399 8871 3403 8871 3423 8821 3417 8818
TIME...MOT...LOC 0312Z 247DEG 35KT 3397 8860

BORGHOFF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1013 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

MSZ015-022-023-300400-
PONTOTOC MS-CALHOUN MS-CHICKASAW MS-
1013 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR...

  SOUTHERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  CHICKASAW COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTH CENTRAL PONTOTOC COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING UP TO PENNY SIZE HAIL WAS LOCATED 8
MILES SOUTH OF DERMA AT 1013 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CALHOUN...CHICKASAW AND PONTOTOC COUNTIES...INCLUDING
LOCATIONS NEAR HOUSTON...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT ALSO INCLUDES DAVIS LAKE.

.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY
AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3373 8952 3378 8951 3414 8893 3386 8875
      3380 8890 3381 8891 3380 8892 3373 8908
      3374 8917 3372 8918 3372 8950
TIME...MOT...LOC 0313Z 240DEG 29KT 3375 8930