Severe Thunderstorm Warning 354, NWS Memphis, TN

893 
WWUS54 KMEG 131741
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1241 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

ARC121-131815-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0354.000000T0000Z-110513T1815Z/
RANDOLPH AR-
1241 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN RANDOLPH COUNTY...

AT 1241 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PING PONG SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
ELEVEN POINT...OR 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF POCAHONTAS...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ELM STORE...
ELEVEN POINT...WARM SPRINGS...PITMAN...MIDDLEBROOK...BRAKEBILL...
INGRAM...HAMIL AND ELKINS PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALERT
AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 9081 3644 9078 3626 9125 3626 9127
      3632 9127 3633 9129 3637 9129 3639 9132
      3642 9132 3642 9136 3650 9139
TIME...MOT...LOC 1741Z 240DEG 24KT 3641 9122

$$

908 
WWUS54 KMEG 131802
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
102 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

ARC121-131815-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0354.000000T0000Z-110513T1815Z/
RANDOLPH AR-
102 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN RANDOLPH COUNTY...

AT 102 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED PRODUCING GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR WARM SPRINGS...OR 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF
POCAHONTAS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ELM STORE...
WARM SPRINGS...PITMAN...MIDDLEBROOK...BRAKEBILL...INGRAM...HAMIL AND
ELKINS PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALERT
AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3627 9122 3631 9125 3635 9124 3637 9125
      3640 9126 3642 9126 3645 9125 3650 9123
      3650 9081 3644 9078 3626 9125
TIME...MOT...LOC 1802Z 240DEG 24KT 3648 9107

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1020 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

.UPDATE...

MAIN SHIELD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS QUICKLY EXITING THE
MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES. THIS COMBINED
WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL HELP TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE. WEAK CAPPING SHOULD ERODE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. DEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE DEPICTED IN THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE ALONG WITH MOSTLY UNI-
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE PULSE TYPE CONVECTION
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ADJUSTED
POPS...TEMPERATURES...AND SKY COVER TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT.

CCD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. A
LEAD SHORTWAVE IS CONTINUING TO DRIVE A WEAKENING MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) ACROSS THE MID SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING.
LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A STRONG GUST FRONT WILL
ADVANCE FURTHER EAST OF ONGOING STORMS WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A
CONTINUED WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST AFTER SUNRISE. THIS COMPLEX
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON OVER
EASTERN AREAS. AT THIS TIME...WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS MORNING...WITH CHANCE POPS
FURTHER WEST.

A SECONDARY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE MID SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND FORCE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IN A WEAKLY
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RECOVER FROM MORNING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH THE AIRMASS BECOMING MODERATELY TO
STRONGLY UNSTABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON MUCAPES SHOULD
RANGE FROM 2000-3000J/KG...LI/S WILL RANGE FROM -4C TO -7C...AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN TO GREATER THAN 6.5C/KM. THIS
IMPROVED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 40-50KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK SHOULD
SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY THREATS
FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THE
TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LOW AS THE FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1KM REMAINS
RATHER WEAK AND THE WIND FIELDS BECOME UNIDIRECTIONAL. PLAN TO
CONTINUE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS AND SLIGHT RISK IN LATEST HWO.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY BY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD. A COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT BRINGING AN
END TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. MUCH COOLER
AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ALSO FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY WITH A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AND INTO
THE MID SOUTH ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND
LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH
COOLER AND AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE MID SOUTH FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARMER AND HUMID WEATHER WILL ALSO MAKE
A RETURN BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

HYDROLOGY...

THE MAIN STEM MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE MAJOR FLOOD
STAGE LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AREAS
THAT HAVE BEEN FLOODED DUE TO THE NEAR RECORD MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FLOODING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE FLOODED CONDITIONS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSSIBLY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION AND CONTINUE TO HEED THE
ADVICE OF YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. ALSO CONTINUE
TO AVOID AREAS THAT REMAIN FLOODED. RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SMALLER TRIBUTARIES OFF OF THE MAIN STEM MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAY SEE
RISES IF HEAVIER RAINFALL DOES FALL OVER THE BASINS TODAY...AS RUNOFF
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ESCAPE THE SMALLER RIVERS DUE TO CONTINUED
BACK WATER FLOOD ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS AND STAGES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

A BROAD AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS
GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END BY 13/14Z. DAYTIME INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
ADJUSTED TIMING OF BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT JBR BETWEEN
13/18-20Z...MEM 13/19-21Z...MKL 13/20-22Z...AND TUP 13/22-24.
SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 8-11 KTS WILL VEER NORTHWEST BY TONIGHT.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT.

CJC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  82  57  69  53 /  60  40  20  10
MKL  80  57  67  50 /  60  60  30  10
JBR  78  55  68  48 /  50  30  20  10
TUP  83  58  72  52 /  70  70  20  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
504 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-141215-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
504 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
TODAY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISKS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IN
AREAS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS.

HISTORIC RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH
LEVEES BEING STRESSED AT SOME LOCATIONS. BACKWATER FLOODING ALONG
TRIBUTARIES TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER REMAIN OF SERIOUS CONCERN.
OTHER AREA RIVERS ARE ALSO IN MODERATE OR MAJOR FLOOD. PLEASE
REMAIN UPDATED WITH THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND FOLLOW ANY EVACUATION
ORDERS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG MANY AREA
RIVERS...INCLUDING PERSISTENT MAJOR FLOODING ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
BACKWATER FLOODING ALONG TRIBUTARIES TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL
REMAIN OF SERIOUS CONCERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS...AND LAW
ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY. PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR NEW
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MEMPHIS.

JLH