Severe Thunderstorm Warning 351, NWS Memphis, TN

218 
WWUS54 KMEG 130643
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
143 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

ARC077-107-123-130700-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0351.000000T0000Z-110513T0700Z/
PHILLIPS AR-LEE AR-ST. FRANCIS AR-
143 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ST. FRANCIS...LEE AND NORTHWESTERN PHILLIPS
COUNTIES...

AT 144 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OAK
FOREST...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF PALESTINE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MARIANNA...
PALESTINE...BLOSSOM...GOODWIN...DODSONS CORNER...BONAIR...HEUSTESS...
BURNT CANE...RAWLINSON...GILL...FOUR FORKS...WESTOR...OAK FOREST AND
THOMASVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

&&

LAT...LON 3493 9111 3504 9059 3471 9057 3455 9105
      3473 9106 3473 9110 3474 9111 3487 9110
      3487 9112
TIME...MOT...LOC 0644Z 257DEG 28KT 3483 9090

$$

493 
WWUS54 KMEG 130706
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
206 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

ARC077-107-123-130716-
/O.EXP.KMEG.SV.W.0351.000000T0000Z-110513T0700Z/
PHILLIPS AR-LEE AR-ST. FRANCIS AR-
206 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN ST. FRANCIS...LEE
AND NORTHWESTERN PHILLIPS COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

AT 206 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED...AND NO
LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

.CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AS FUTURE WARNINGS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR YOUR AREA.

LAT...LON 3493 9111 3504 9059 3471 9057 3455 9105
      3473 9106 3473 9110 3474 9111 3487 9110
      3487 9112
TIME...MOT...LOC 0643Z 257DEG 28KT 3483 9091

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1212 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011/

UPDATE...TALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING TO OUR WEST ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS...BUT A STRONG CAP HAS PROTECTED MOST OF
THE MIDSOUTH SO FAR TONIGHT. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN BUILDING
TOWARD THE EAST AND A FEW COULD MOVE INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BY
MIDNIGHT. A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WILL HELP
KEEP THESE STORMS GOING FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO TURN NORTHEAST MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT INTO MISSOURI. THERE IS A SMALL FLAIR UP OF
STORMS IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA THAT COULD IMPACT AREAS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT IS MAKING MUCH
NORTH PROGRESS SO WILL LOWER POPS A BIT FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011/

SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S. SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY
EVENING PRODUCING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 70 DEGREES. UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS CONTINUED COOL WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION BY MONDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY KEEPING THINGS
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM 00Z TAF SET AS TAFS LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE.
ACTIVE 24 HOUR PERIOD SETTING UP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. SHRAS/TSRAS
ACROSS ARKANSAS HAVE FORMED A MCS THAT IS MOVING INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME. COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PUSH THROUGH THE CWA AND SHOULD EXIT EASTERN AREAS BY 14Z-15Z.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT ADDITIONAL TSRA DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR ALONG A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE CWA BEGINNING AROUND 16Z
ACROSS NE ARKANSAS AND BY 22Z ACROSS NE MISSISSIPPI. AN UPPER LOW
WILL THEN BEGIN TO PUSH INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AFTER 21Z PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR TSRAS. EXPECT PERIODS OF LOW CIGS
AND VSBYS TO OCCUR OFF AND ON BEGINNING THROUGHOUT OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. AFTER 00Z...MVFR CIGS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE CWA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA. LIGHT SSW WINDS
WILL BECOME SW AT 12 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE EVENING HOURS.

KRM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  82  58  68  53 /  60  60  30  10
MKL  80  57  68  50 /  70  60  40  20
JBR  79  56  68  51 /  60  60  30  10
TUP  82  59  71  54 /  60  60  30  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
415 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-131115-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
415 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE
STORMS WOULD BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT THE RISK IS QUITE LOW. IN ADDITION...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE
SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...SO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

HISTORIC RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI WITH
LEVEES BEING STRESSED AT SOME LOCATIONS. BACKWATER FLOODING ALONG
TRIBUTARIES TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER REMAIN OF SERIOUS CONCERN.
OTHER AREA RIVERS ARE ALSO IN MODERATE OR MAJOR FLOOD. PLEASE
KEEP IN TOUCH WITH THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND FOLLOW ANY
EVACUATION ORDERS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
AGENCY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. LARGE HAIL
IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH DAMAGING WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE.

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG MANY AREA RIVERS.
NEAR RECORD CRESTS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
BACKWATER FLOODING ALONG TRIBUTARIES TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL
REMAIN OF SERIOUS CONCERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON FRIDAY.

BORGHOFF