Severe Thunderstorm Warning 350, NWS Memphis, TN

409 
WWUS54 KMEG 130628
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
128 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

ARC037-123-130700-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0350.000000T0000Z-110513T0700Z/
CROSS AR-ST. FRANCIS AR-
128 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT
FOR NORTHERN ST. FRANCIS AND SOUTHERN CROSS COUNTIES...

AT 128 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
L'ANGVILLE...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF PALESTINE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FORREST
CITY...MADISON...PARKIN...WYNNE...ELLIS CHAPEL...L'ANGVILLE...MC
ELROY...FITZGERALD CROSSING...WITTSBURG...LEVESQUE...RIVER FRONT...
DUVALL...PRINCEDALE AND MC DONALD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

&&

LAT...LON 3501 9105 3518 9104 3529 9054 3506 9047
      3493 9110 3501 9112
TIME...MOT...LOC 0628Z 256DEG 28KT 3509 9094

$$

038 
WWUS54 KMEG 130705
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
205 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

ARC037-123-130716-
/O.EXP.KMEG.SV.W.0350.000000T0000Z-110513T0700Z/
CROSS AR-ST. FRANCIS AR-
205 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN ST. FRANCIS AND
SOUTHERN CROSS COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

AT 206 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED...AND NO
LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3501 9105 3518 9104 3529 9054 3506 9047
      3493 9110 3501 9112
TIME...MOT...LOC 0628Z 256DEG 28KT 3509 9094

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1212 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011/

UPDATE...TALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING TO OUR WEST ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS...BUT A STRONG CAP HAS PROTECTED MOST OF
THE MIDSOUTH SO FAR TONIGHT. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN BUILDING
TOWARD THE EAST AND A FEW COULD MOVE INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BY
MIDNIGHT. A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WILL HELP
KEEP THESE STORMS GOING FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO TURN NORTHEAST MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT INTO MISSOURI. THERE IS A SMALL FLAIR UP OF
STORMS IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA THAT COULD IMPACT AREAS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT IS MAKING MUCH
NORTH PROGRESS SO WILL LOWER POPS A BIT FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011/

SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S. SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY
EVENING PRODUCING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 70 DEGREES. UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS CONTINUED COOL WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION BY MONDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY KEEPING THINGS
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM 00Z TAF SET AS TAFS LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE.
ACTIVE 24 HOUR PERIOD SETTING UP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. SHRAS/TSRAS
ACROSS ARKANSAS HAVE FORMED A MCS THAT IS MOVING INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME. COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PUSH THROUGH THE CWA AND SHOULD EXIT EASTERN AREAS BY 14Z-15Z.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT ADDITIONAL TSRA DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR ALONG A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE CWA BEGINNING AROUND 16Z
ACROSS NE ARKANSAS AND BY 22Z ACROSS NE MISSISSIPPI. AN UPPER LOW
WILL THEN BEGIN TO PUSH INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AFTER 21Z PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR TSRAS. EXPECT PERIODS OF LOW CIGS
AND VSBYS TO OCCUR OFF AND ON BEGINNING THROUGHOUT OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. AFTER 00Z...MVFR CIGS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE CWA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA. LIGHT SSW WINDS
WILL BECOME SW AT 12 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE EVENING HOURS.

KRM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  82  58  68  53 /  60  60  30  10
MKL  80  57  68  50 /  70  60  40  20
JBR  79  56  68  51 /  60  60  30  10
TUP  82  59  71  54 /  60  60  30  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
415 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-131115-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
415 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE
STORMS WOULD BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT THE RISK IS QUITE LOW. IN ADDITION...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE
SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...SO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

HISTORIC RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI WITH
LEVEES BEING STRESSED AT SOME LOCATIONS. BACKWATER FLOODING ALONG
TRIBUTARIES TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER REMAIN OF SERIOUS CONCERN.
OTHER AREA RIVERS ARE ALSO IN MODERATE OR MAJOR FLOOD. PLEASE
KEEP IN TOUCH WITH THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND FOLLOW ANY
EVACUATION ORDERS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
AGENCY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. LARGE HAIL
IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH DAMAGING WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE.

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG MANY AREA RIVERS.
NEAR RECORD CRESTS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
BACKWATER FLOODING ALONG TRIBUTARIES TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL
REMAIN OF SERIOUS CONCERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON FRIDAY.

BORGHOFF