Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1255 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN LINE OF
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS PUSHING FROM WEST TO
EAST...WHILE MEANWHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE MOVING IN A SOUTH TO NORTH DIRECTION. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY...BLOWING UP TO 30 MILES PER HOUR OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...THEN SHIFTING OUT OF THE WEST AFTER THE LINE. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY ON FRIDAY AFTER THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CLEAR THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH
AS WRAP AROUND PRECIP MOVES THROUGH THE STATE COMING TO AN END
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011/

AVIATION...
TSTMS FROM OK WILL ENTER WRN AR LATER THIS EVE AND SHOULD SHIFT E
OF ALL TAF SITES BY MID MORNING FRI. TIMING OF STORMS WAS PRETTY
MUCH IN LINE WITH NAM AND GFS. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN INDICATING SCT TS DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF OK STORMS THIS
EVENING /AND ISOLATED STORM HAS POPPED UP IN SERN OK/...SO ALLOWED
FOR A LONGER AMOUNT OF TIME FOR TS AT THE TAF SITES. UNTIL TSTMS
ARRIVE...CONDITONS SHOULD BE VFR WITH GUSTY S-SW SURFACE WIND.
CEILING LOWERING TO MVFR/OCNL IFR DUE TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
AS TSTMS MOVE THROUGH. ALSO...VERY GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY
THE STORMS. CONTINUED MVFR FOR AWHILE FRI MORNING...THEN BECOMING
VFR. GUSTY WSW-W WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRI.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

DEEPENING LOW PRES SYS WAS CENTERED ACRS CNTRL KS AT MID AFTN. LOW
LVL MOISTURE CONTD TO ADVECT NWD INTO ERN OK AND SWRN AR.
CDFNT/DRYLINE WAS ALIGNED SWD FM THE LOW ACRS CNTRL OK. TEMPS HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 70S AND LOWERS 80S ACRS THE FA.

CURRENT FCST THINKING RMNS UNCHANGED AS STRONG/SVR STORMS EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE AREA TNGT INTO FRI. SCTD TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WL DVLP
BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING ACRS ERN OK AND EVENTUALLY AFFECT PARTS OF
WRN AR...WHERE DISCRETE STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLD TORNADOES THRU
THE EVENING HRS. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY ORGANIZED INTO A
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...WITH THE FOCUS FOR
WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL CONTG INTO FRI.

PRECIP WL TAPER OFF FM THE W LATE TNGT AND FRI AS THE FNT SHIFTS E
OF AR. WITH SFC LOW EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVR MO ON FRI...GUSTY
W/SWLY WINDS WL BE COMMON. WENT AHEAD AND POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVY
ACRS THE FA FOR FRI. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE
UPGRADE TO A WIND ADVY OVR PARTS OF THE AREA.

CYCLONIC FLOW WL RESULT IN PLENTY OF WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WL KEEP
CLOUDS ACRS MUCH OF THE STATE FRI NGT AND SAT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LEFTOVER SHOWERS FRI NGT OVR NRN AR. WINDS WL SUBSIDE HEADING INTO
SAT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS. HIGH PRES WL SETTLE OVR THE SAT
NGT BEFORE SHIFTING EWD BY SUN. SLY FLOW WL RETURN SUN AFTN WL SOME
INCRS IN MOISTURE COMMENCING BY SUN NGT.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

IT APPEARS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WILL LIKELY STALL ON
TUESDAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE. A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE FRONT
WAVERING ACROSS THE STATE. THE FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS...WITH CLOUDS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

THE FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THIS WILL
BE MOST FAVORED OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS.

AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     43  63  43  73 /  20  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         46  69  45  78 /  10   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       42  61  40  71 /  20  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    45  68  44  76 /  10   0  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  46  67  45  75 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     48  69  45  75 /  10   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      41  67  43  76 /  10   0  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  40  60  41  72 /  20  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        43  64  43  72 /  20  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     46  68  45  75 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   41  65  45  75 /  20  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         45  65  44  74 /  20  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      48  67  44  73 /  20  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-
CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

AVIATION...225

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
248 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW SWEET HOME         34.66N 92.24W
04/15/2011                   PULASKI            AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ALONG 530 NORTH OF DIXON RD. MILE MARKER 3.

&&

227

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
253 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW DOWNTOWN LITTLE RO 34.76N 92.27W
04/15/2011                   PULASKI            AR   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            NUMEROUS TREES HAVE FALLEN WITH SEVERAL TREES ON HOUSES.
            GAS LINE RUPTURES HAVE OCCURED AND TWO HOUSES ARE ON
            FIRE.

&&

227

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
303 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0206 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E EAST END            34.55N 92.28W
04/15/2011                   SALINE             AR   AMATEUR RADIO

            TRRES AND POWERLINE DOWN ALONG I-530.

&&

227

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
323 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0219 AM     TSTM WND DMG     6 S SCOTT               34.61N 92.10W
04/15/2011                   PULASKI            AR   AMATEUR RADIO

            TRRES DOWN AND BLOCKING PARTS OF HWY 161. A TRAILED HAS
            BEEN DAMAGED AND FIRE AND RESUCE IS ON THE SCENE. THERE
            ARE SEVERAL TRAPPED OCCUPANTS.

&&

227

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
338 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0134 AM     TSTM WND DMG     GLEN ROSE               34.45N 92.72W
04/15/2011                   HOT SPRING         AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL BARNS AND HOUSES HAVE SUSTAINED DAMAGE IN THE
            GLEN ROSE COMMUNITY.

&&

57