Tornado Warning 5, NWS Little Rock, AR

028 
WWUS54 KLZK 150351
SVSLZK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1051 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

ARC083-127-150400-
/O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110415T0400Z/
SCOTT AR-LOGAN AR-
1051 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOGAN
AND NORTH CENTRAL SCOTT COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

AT 1049 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF WALDRON...MOVING 
EAST AT 40 MPH. ANOTHER POSSIBLE TORNADO WAS INDICATED JUST EAST OF 
HUNTINGTON WITH REPORTS OF 60 MPH WINDS AND 1 INCH HAIL ALSO SEEN 
NEAR HUNTINGTON.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
  ECHO...               LUCAS...              IONE...
  ELM PARK...           BARBER...             ABBOTT...
  WALDRON LAKE...       PLEASANT HILL...      PILOT KNOB...
  LONE ELM...           GREEN RIDGE...        EAST POTEAU MTN...
  BOOTHE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3490 9407 3490 9416 3506 9423 3507 9425
      3514 9405 3490 9399
TIME...MOT...LOC 0350Z 262DEG 33KT 3495 9412

$$

BJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
651 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

.AVIATION...
TSTMS FROM OK WILL ENTER WRN AR LATER THIS EVE AND SHOULD SHIFT E
OF ALL TAF SITES BY MID MORNING FRI. TIMING OF STORMS WAS PRETTY
MUCH IN LINE WITH NAM AND GFS. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN INDICATING SCT TS DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF OK STORMS THIS
EVENING /AND ISOLATED STORM HAS POPPED UP IN SERN OK/...SO ALLOWED
FOR A LONGER AMOUNT OF TIME FOR TS AT THE TAF SITES. UNTIL TSTMS
ARRIVE...CONDITONS SHOULD BE VFR WITH GUSTY S-SW SURFACE WIND.
CEILING LOWERING TO MVFR/OCNL IFR DUE TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
AS TSTMS MOVE THROUGH. ALSO...VERY GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY
THE STORMS. CONTINUED MVFR FOR AWHILE FRI MORNING...THEN BECOMING
VFR. GUSTY WSW-W WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRI.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

DEEPENING LOW PRES SYS WAS CENTERED ACRS CNTRL KS AT MID AFTN. LOW
LVL MOISTURE CONTD TO ADVECT NWD INTO ERN OK AND SWRN AR.
CDFNT/DRYLINE WAS ALIGNED SWD FM THE LOW ACRS CNTRL OK. TEMPS HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 70S AND LOWERS 80S ACRS THE FA.

CURRENT FCST THINKING RMNS UNCHANGED AS STRONG/SVR STORMS EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE AREA TNGT INTO FRI. SCTD TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WL DVLP
BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING ACRS ERN OK AND EVENTUALLY AFFECT PARTS OF
WRN AR...WHERE DISCRETE STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLD TORNADOES THRU
THE EVENING HRS. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY ORGANIZED INTO A
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...WITH THE FOCUS FOR
WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL CONTG INTO FRI.

PRECIP WL TAPER OFF FM THE W LATE TNGT AND FRI AS THE FNT SHIFTS E
OF AR. WITH SFC LOW EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVR MO ON FRI...GUSTY
W/SWLY WINDS WL BE COMMON. WENT AHEAD AND POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVY
ACRS THE FA FOR FRI. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE
UPGRADE TO A WIND ADVY OVR PARTS OF THE AREA.

CYCLONIC FLOW WL RESULT IN PLENTY OF WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WL KEEP
CLOUDS ACRS MUCH OF THE STATE FRI NGT AND SAT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LEFTOVER SHOWERS FRI NGT OVR NRN AR. WINDS WL SUBSIDE HEADING INTO
SAT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS. HIGH PRES WL SETTLE OVR THE SAT
NGT BEFORE SHIFTING EWD BY SUN. SLY FLOW WL RETURN SUN AFTN WL SOME
INCRS IN MOISTURE COMMENCING BY SUN NGT.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

IT APPEARS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WILL LIKELY STALL ON
TUESDAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE. A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE FRONT
WAVERING ACROSS THE STATE. THE FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS...WITH CLOUDS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

THE FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THIS WILL
BE MOST FAVORED OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS.

AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  72  43  63 / 100  60  20  10
CAMDEN AR         63  73  46  69 /  80  60  10   0
HARRISON AR       50  61  42  61 /  90  50  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    60  69  45  68 /  90  40  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  61  72  46  67 / 100  60  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     65  75  48  69 /  70  70  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      58  67  41  67 /  90  20  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  58  67  40  60 / 100  50  20  10
NEWPORT AR        60  74  43  64 /  90  70  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     62  74  46  68 /  80  70  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   58  67  41  65 / 100  30  20  10
SEARCY AR         62  73  45  65 / 100  70  20  10
STUTTGART AR      63  74  48  67 /  90  70  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

AVIATION...28

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
451 AM CDT THU APR 14 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-151000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
451 AM CDT THU APR 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN
OKLAHOMA HAS PLACED WESTERN ARKANSAS UNDER A MODERATE RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE STATE.

A POTENT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OUT IN THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH
ARKANSAS LATER TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THESE STORMS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL THIRD OF ARKANSAS BY MID TO LATE EVENING.

SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL BECOME SEVERE. THESE
SEVERE STORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE HAIL ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER OR GREATER...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH...AND EVEN TORNADOES.

REGARDING TORNADOES...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST
RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL PRIMARILY BE IN AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM
CLARKSVILLE...TO HOT SPRINGS...TO GURDON...AND BETWEEN 7 PM AND
MIDNIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL
LINE AND MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND INTO
EASTERN ARKANSAS. THE STORMS WILL EXIT THE STATE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT...WHILE THE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE HIGHEST IN THE WEST...THERE WILL BE A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IN ALL PARTS OF THE STATE TONIGHT.

PEOPLE SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WATCH OR
WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THEIR AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.