River Flood Warning 48, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
625 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

.AVIATION...
OVERALL VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE SEEN SUNDAY EVENING TO THE
OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAFS. PATCHY AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WITH A SW TO NE ORIENTATION...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
ARKANSAS...AND BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY
EVENING. SOUTH OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH 5 TO 15
KNOTS...WHILE NORTH OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE NORTH 7 TO 18 KNOTS.
SOME WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ALONG THE FRONT. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING OVER AR WITH THE NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN AR. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS ARKANSAS. RAIN HAS DIMINISHED IN
AREAL COVERAGE FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT IT TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL MEANDER AROUND THE STATE THROUGH MONDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY AND
PUSHES THE FRONT EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VARIED ACROSS THE STATE AS
LONG AS THE FRONT IS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST OF ARKANSAS ON
THURSDAY...THEN A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE STATE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL BE KEPT IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT
AND ON FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS THROUGH THE STATE. THE FRONT
WASHES OUT LATER FRIDAY THEN IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT AND KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. THEN
SUNDAY HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE ALSO AS ANOTHER FRONT FORMS AND SAGS
SOUTH INTO AR. OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE
CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     48  57  45  64 /  90  80  80  20
CAMDEN AR         54  59  46  65 /  80  90  90  20
HARRISON AR       42  55  40  63 /  90  80  80  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    51  57  44  65 /  90  80  80  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  52  58  46  65 /  90  90  90  20
MONTICELLO AR     61  64  49  62 /  80  90 100  40
MOUNT IDA AR      50  56  43  65 /  90  80  80  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  43  56  42  63 /  90  80  80  10
NEWPORT AR        50  58  46  63 / 100  90  90  30
PINE BLUFF AR     56  60  47  64 /  90  90  90  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   47  58  42  65 /  90  80  80  10
SEARCY AR         50  57  46  65 /  90  80  90  30
STUTTGART AR      53  58  47  64 /  90  90  90  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-
FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-
JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-
NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-
SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...59

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
445 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-021000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
445 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE COLD FRONT HAS SATALLED ACROSS SOUTH ARKANSAS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT
THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME
SEVERE...WITH MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE STATE THROUGH TONIGHT.

CENTRAL AND SOUTH ARKANSAS WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL
TONIGHT. FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN THROUGH
AT LEAST TONIGHT AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND LIKELY MOVE OVER OR NEAR LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY
SEEN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS HAVE ALREADY
SEEN 2 TO OVER 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL SINCE SATURDAY EVENING. ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY FOR THIS
PERSISTING FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO A CONTINUING THREAT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH MANY RIVERS ACROSS THE STATE REMAINING AT OR ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE YET TO SEE THE RIVERS
CREST...WITH CONTINUING RISES EXPECTED FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL. ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY EITHER AGGRAVATE THIS
SITUATION...OR AT LEAST SLOW THE RATE AT WHICH FLOOD WATERS
RECEDE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOME PORTION OF THE STATE THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. WHILE THERE WILL REMAIN AT LEAST SOME
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD...A VERY SIGNIFICANT
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. AN
ADDITIONAL 2 TO AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES OR MORE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUESDAY...IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. AGAIN...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY.

RIVER FLOODING CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE FOR MANY RIVERS ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE THE ALREADY VERY SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING
SITUATION ONGOING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ALSO...ANY REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING
ARE ENCOURAGED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

62

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
704 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0641 PM     HAIL             NORFORK                 36.21N 92.28W
05/01/2011  E1.00 INCH       BAXTER             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

227

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
712 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0641 PM     HAIL             RUSSELLVILLE            35.27N 93.14W
05/01/2011  E1.00 INCH       POPE               AR   PUBLIC

            HAIL FELL FOR ABOUT 5 MINUTES.

&&

227

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
718 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0641 PM     HAIL             NEW HOPE                34.23N 93.88W
05/01/2011  E1.00 INCH       PIKE               AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

227

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
744 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0717 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N WONDERVIEW          35.35N 92.73W
05/01/2011                   CONWAY             AR   AMATEUR RADIO

            COUPLE OF TREES DOWN ALONG HWY 95. THE TREES WERE NOT
            BLOCKING ANY ROADS.

&&

227

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
811 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0713 PM     HAIL             OPAL                    34.54N 93.99W
05/01/2011  E1.00 INCH       POLK               AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

227

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
816 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0814 PM     FLOOD            SHERWOOD                34.83N 92.21W
05/01/2011                   PULASKI            AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            THREE HOMES ARE FLOODED ON ORCHID DRIVE.

&&

227