Flash Flood Warning 92, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
251 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FORMERLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STARTING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLES REGION WILL PUSH THE
LAST BIT OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAIN COULD OCCUR...SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING EARLY.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP COMING TO AN END BY MID DAY TUESDAY. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER PLEASANT...TOPPING OUT MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

WITH WINDS GOING NEAR CALM TONIGHT...AS THE HIGHS CENTER PASSES
OVER US...TEMPERATURES COULD GET RATHER CHILLY...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH TO LOWER/MID 40S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
SOME VALLEY AREAS COULD RADIATE OUT COLDER.

AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM.
HOWEVER...READINGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE LONG TERM PD WILL BEGIN WITH PROGRESSIVE UPR FLOW OVER THE
CONUS AS MODEST WESTERLIES STREAM INTO AND THROUGH THE COUNTRY.
EVENTUALLY...A MORE POTENT UPR WAVE SHOULD DIG INTO THE WRN CONUS
AND RE-AMPLIFY THE UPR PATTERN WITH SW FLOW BUILDING BACK OVER AR
BEGINNING LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY LASTING INTO NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE FRI NIGHT BUT
LACK MUCH PUSH GIVEN FLAT UPR FLOW. HAVE LEFT GOING SLGHT CHC
POPS...FIRST IN THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND THEN INTO THE REST OF THE
STATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT. ATTM...THE
ALIGNMENT OF THE STALLING FRONT SHOULD BE MORE PERPENDICULAR TO
THE BUILDING SW UPR FLOW AS THE FRONT BACKDOORS INTO THE STATE AND
ALIGNS ITSELF IN A GENERAL NW-SE DIRECTION. HOPEFULLY THIS
ALIGNMENT WILL PRECLUDE ANY SORT OF HUGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKE
THOSE SEEN THIS PAST WEEKEND...BUT THE FACT THAT THE FRONT MAY
REMAIN STALLED FOR A FEW DAYS MEANS THAT IT DOES BEAR WATCHING.
GIVEN SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW LVL THETA E RETURN...SVR WX COULD BECOME
A POSSIBILITY THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS ABOVE AVERAGE ON THE DEGREE OF
THIS THREAT ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON EXACT FNTL POSITION
AND CLOUD COVER AND HAVE LARGELY LEFT GOING FCST...WHICH IS A GOOD
HEDGE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     42  66  40  67 / 100  20  10  10
CAMDEN AR         44  69  41  74 / 100  20  10  10
HARRISON AR       38  62  37  69 /  80  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    42  67  43  72 /  90  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  44  67  43  71 / 100  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     45  64  43  73 / 100  30  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      43  68  36  72 /  90  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  40  63  37  69 /  90  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        43  67  40  67 / 100  30  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     46  65  46  70 / 100  30  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   40  68  38  72 /  90  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         43  65  42  69 / 100  20  10  10
STUTTGART AR      45  66  45  68 / 100  30  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-
FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-
JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-
NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-
SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.
&&

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...63

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
518 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-031030-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
518 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WHILE THE THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS SOMEWHAT LOW...THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS TO ALREADY SATURATED
GROUNDS...FURTHER ADDING TO THE FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE STATE.

WITH SATURATED GROUNDS...IT WILL TAKE VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO CREATE TREACHEROUS CONDITIONS IN AREAS PRONE TO FLASH
FLOODING. WITH AN EXTRA 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS
THE STATE TODAY...FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY
MORNING.

RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO A CONTINUING THREAT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH MANY RIVERS ACROSS THE STATE REMAINING AT OR ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE YET TO SEE THE RIVERS
CREST...WITH CONTINUING RISES EXPECTED FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL.
ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY EITHER AGGRAVATE THIS
SITUATION...OR AT LEAST SLOW THE RATE AT WHICH FLOOD WATERS
RECEDE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THE RAINS SHOULD
SUBSIDE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA. WHILE THIS WILL END THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RAINS...RIVER FLOODING WILL
STILL BE OF CONCERN. INDIVIDUALS ARE ADVISED TO BE CAUTIOUS IN
AREAS WITH FLOODING...AND TO AVOID DRIVING THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS AT ALL COSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER REPORTS OF FLASH
FLOODING ARE ENCOURAGED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.