Flash Flood Warning 87, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
101 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

LEADING EDGE OF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS CURRENTLY...AS OF
06Z...STRETCH FROM ROUGHLY KJBR TO KTXK. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ENOUGH TO AFFECT KPBF AND
KLLQ. WHEN THIS OCCURS...KHRO AND POSSIBLY KBPK MAY SEE -RA END
BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THAT AT THIS TIME. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ENOUGH
SO THAT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. AS
SUCH...HAVE ESSENTIALLY PUT ALL TERMINALS DOWN INTO LOW-END MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WILL MONITOR AND
AMEND AS NECESSARY.

EVENTUALLY THIS LINE WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THIS NORTHWARD SHIFT COULD BE ENOUGH TO TEMPORARILY END
SHRA/TSRA CONDITIONS AT KLIT AND POINTS SOUTH...BUT WILL HAVE TO
MODEL THIS INTO FUTURE TAF PACKAGES AS THIS WILL BE A NEAR TERM
TIMING ISSUE.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS ARKANSAS. RAIN HAS DIMINISHED IN
AREAL COVERAGE FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT IT TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL MEANDER AROUND THE STATE THROUGH MONDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY AND
PUSHES THE FRONT EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VARIED ACROSS THE STATE AS
LONG AS THE FRONT IS AROUND.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST OF ARKANSAS ON
THURSDAY...THEN A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE STATE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL BE KEPT IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT
AND ON FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS THROUGH THE STATE. THE FRONT
WASHES OUT LATER FRIDAY THEN IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT AND KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. THEN
SUNDAY HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE ALSO AS ANOTHER FRONT FORMS AND SAGS
SOUTH INTO AR. OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE
CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     57  45  64  42 /  80  80  20  10
CAMDEN AR         59  46  65  44 /  90  90  20  10
HARRISON AR       55  40  63  41 /  80  80  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    57  44  65  44 /  80  80  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  58  46  65  44 /  90  90  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     64  49  62  45 /  90 100  40  10
MOUNT IDA AR      56  43  65  43 /  80  80  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  56  42  63  41 /  80  80  10  10
NEWPORT AR        58  46  63  42 /  90  90  30  10
PINE BLUFF AR     60  47  64  45 /  90  90  40  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   58  42  65  42 /  80  80  10  10
SEARCY AR         57  46  65  43 /  80  90  30  10
STUTTGART AR      58  47  64  45 /  90  90  40  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-FULTON-
GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-
OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-
SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

AVIATION...64

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
445 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-021000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
445 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE COLD FRONT HAS SATALLED ACROSS SOUTH ARKANSAS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT
THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME
SEVERE...WITH MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE STATE THROUGH TONIGHT.

CENTRAL AND SOUTH ARKANSAS WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL
TONIGHT. FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN THROUGH
AT LEAST TONIGHT AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND LIKELY MOVE OVER OR NEAR LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY
SEEN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS HAVE ALREADY
SEEN 2 TO OVER 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL SINCE SATURDAY EVENING. ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY FOR THIS
PERSISTING FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO A CONTINUING THREAT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH MANY RIVERS ACROSS THE STATE REMAINING AT OR ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE YET TO SEE THE RIVERS
CREST...WITH CONTINUING RISES EXPECTED FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL. ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY EITHER AGGRAVATE THIS
SITUATION...OR AT LEAST SLOW THE RATE AT WHICH FLOOD WATERS
RECEDE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOME PORTION OF THE STATE THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. WHILE THERE WILL REMAIN AT LEAST SOME
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD...A VERY SIGNIFICANT
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. AN
ADDITIONAL 2 TO AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES OR MORE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUESDAY...IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. AGAIN...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY.

RIVER FLOODING CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE FOR MANY RIVERS ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE THE ALREADY VERY SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING
SITUATION ONGOING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ALSO...ANY REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING
ARE ENCOURAGED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

62

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1037 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

ARZ037>042-052-054-020435-
GARLAND AR-HOT SPRING AR-MONTGOMERY AR-PERRY AR-PIKE AR-POLK AR-SCOTT
AR-YELL AR-
1037 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN YELL...EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN PERRY...SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT...WESTERN GARLAND...
MONTGOMERY...EASTERN POLK...EXTREME WESTERN HOT SPRING AND
NORTHWESTERN PIKE COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

AT 1037 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTH OF
BEAR MTN TO NEAR SHADY LAKE TO 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF DIERKS...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MT IDA...             LAKE OUACHITA...      SEGUR...
  OPAL...               ODEN...               NORMAN...
  MUDDY CREEK WMA...    MIMOSA...             MEYERS...
  MAULDIN...            LITTLE MISSOURI FALLS REC AREA...
  LENA LNDG REC AREA... GLENWOOD...           GAP MTN...
  GAP CREEK REC AREA... FOURCHE VALLEY...     DAISY...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3502 9336 3479 9322 3448 9321 3417 9382
      3418 9391 3419 9393 3426 9392 3427 9393
      3434 9394 3435 9409 3456 9419
TIME...MOT...LOC 0337Z 238DEG 47KT 3455 9406 3437 9398
          3420 9395

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1143 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1143 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SSW OPPELO            35.06N 92.80W
05/01/2011  E0.00 INCH       PERRY              AR   AMATEUR RADIO

            1 INCH OF RAINFALL WAS MEASURED IN 17 MINUTES.

&&

227

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1144 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1143 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SSW OPPELO            35.06N 92.80W
05/01/2011  M1.00 INCH       PERRY              AR   AMATEUR RADIO

            1 INCH OF RAINFALL WAS MEASURED IN 17 MINUTES.

&&

227

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1159 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

ARZ032-033-039-043>045-020545-
FAULKNER AR-LONOKE AR-PERRY AR-PULASKI AR-SALINE AR-WHITE AR-
1159 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WHITE...SOUTHERN
FAULKNER...NORTHEASTERN PERRY...WESTERN LONOKE...PULASKI AND EASTERN
SALINE COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM CDT...

AT MIDNIGHT CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF
HARRIS BRAKE TO 2 MILES EAST OF SCHOOLHOUSE MTN TO 3 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF LENA...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WEST LITTLE ROCK...   SW LITTLE ROCK...     SHERWOOD...
  N LITTLE ROCK ARPT... NORTH LITTLE ROCK...  LITTLE ROCK AFB...
  LAKE MAUMELLE...      LAKE CONWAY...        JACKSONVILLE...
  DWNTWN LITTLE ROCK... LITTLE ROCK ARPT...   CONWAY...
  CABOT...              BRYANT...             BENTON...
  WRIGHTSVILLE...       WARD...               VILONIA...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 30 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 113 AND 142.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 126 AND 173.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 530 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 11.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3523 9205 3497 9193 3463 9188 3446 9264
      3475 9271 3500 9280
TIME...MOT...LOC 0500Z 250DEG 49KT 3501 9268 3478 9259
          3454 9253

44