Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Louisville, KY

123 
WWUS53 KLMK 200736
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
236 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

KYC001-009-045-053-057-169-171-207-200745-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0125.000000T0000Z-110420T0745Z/
CASEY KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-METCALFE KY-BARREN KY-CUMBERLAND KY-
CLINTON KY-MONROE KY-
236 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 AM
CDT/345 AM EDT/ FOR NORTHERN MONROE...NORTHERN CLINTON...NORTHERN
CUMBERLAND...SOUTHEASTERN BARREN...SOUTHERN METCALFE...RUSSELL...
ADAIR AND SOUTHERN CASEY COUNTIES...

AT 233 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER 
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS 
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM TEDDY TO BAKERTON...MOVING 
EAST AT 55 MPH. AT 225 AM CDT...A MESONET SITE IN ADAIR COUNTY 
RECORDED A WIND GUST OF 53 MPH. 

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  JAMESTOWN...
  EDMONTON...
  COLUMBIA...
  LONG BOTTOM AND ONO...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...
WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3681 8589 3720 8533 3723 8475 3711 8492
      3706 8492 3700 8485 3694 8492 3695 8494
      3692 8497 3686 8507 3684 8507 3683 8504
      3682 8504
TIME...MOT...LOC 0736Z 270DEG 48KT 3719 8488 3687 8534
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

DK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
245 AM EDT WED APR 20 2011

...MESOSCALE UPDATE...

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK PROGRESSING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...

IMPRESSIVE AND LONG-LIVED BOW ECHO CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING.  OVERALL...ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO
STABILIZE BEHIND THE BOW ECHO. ONLY REMAINING INSTABILITY IS
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS...MAINLY EAST OF BOWLING GREEN
AND GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE CUMBERLAND PARKWAY.  THE MOST SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE AFFECTING AREAS AROUND BOWLING GREEN AND AREAS TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE.  QUITE A BIT OF DAMAGE IS NOW OCCURING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SIMPSON COUNTY NEAR FRANKLIN.  SEE OUR LOCAL
STORM REPORTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.  IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL...SOME SUB-SEVERE HAIL IS ALSO OCCURING BEHIND
THE MAIN LINE.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL KENTUCKY...TRAILING STRATIFORM RAINFALL IS IN
PROGRESS.  LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.  ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT IS FIRING JUST WEST OF PADUCAH.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY HEAD EAST THIS MORNING.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...

...SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WIND DAMAGE...SOME OF IT POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES EXPECTED...

PARAMETERS STILL IN PLACE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK OVER
S-CENTRAL IND AND CENTRAL KY TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
CAPPING INVERSION HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE
STARTING TO ERODE. TEMPS NOW WARMING NICELY WITH READINGS NOW IN MID
70S TO MID 80S. WARM FRONT...RESPONSIBLE FOR TSTMS THIS MORNING OVER
PARTS OF SRN IND...HAS LIFTED JUST N OF AREA. AT THIS TIME...ANOTHER
AXIS OF ENHANCED CLOUDS WAS LOCATED OVER SRN IL INTO SW IND WHERE
SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN AREA OF
SLOWLY ERODING CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT. 12Z NAM ACTUALLY RESOLVED
THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS SOME WARM-SECTOR CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
TSTMS OVER S-CENTRAL IND AND N-CENTRAL KY THROUGH EARLY EVENING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE.

SPC HAS JUST ISSUED THE FIRST TORNADO WATCH FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL IL
TO SRN/SW MO...THE AREA WHERE THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL
BEGIN. IN THIS AREA...INSTABILITY...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...AND
INCREASING FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TSTMS TO EXPAND
RAPIDLY AS THE CAP IS BROKEN. CELLULAR-BASED CONVECTION (I.E.
SUPERCELLS) IS LIKELY IN THIS AREA. THIS AREA WILL CONGEAL INTO A
LINEAR MODE OF CONVECTION (I.E., SQUALL LINE) WITH BOWING SEGMENTS
INCREASING IN NUMBER WITH TIME AS THE LINE MOVES E INTO THE LOWER OH
VALLEY THIS EVENING. THE MODELS ARE USUALLY SLOW IN THE TIMING OF
THE LINE AS THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN WITH THE STORMS HELPS
TO ACCELERATE THE LINE FASTER THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED GIVEN AMBIENT
WIND FIELDS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT LINE TO REACH OUR FAR NW COUNTY
(DUBOIS) IN IND BY ABOUT 10 PM EDT...LOUISVILLE TO BOWLING GREEN
AXIS ABOUT 11 PM OR MIDNIGHT...FRANKFORT ABOUT 12-2 AM AND LEXINGTON
AROUND 2-3 AM EDT.

ALTHOUGH CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG AND JUST E OF THE FRONT IN MO
THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER THE STORMS BECOME AN ORGANIZED LINE...THE
LINE WILL RACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MODELS HINT THAT A SECONDARY
LINE OF AT LEAST SCT TSTMS COULD FORM ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT A
COUPLE/FEW HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL LINE. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL LINE
WILL BE THE MAIN ONE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...
DESPITE THE TIME OF DAY (I.E. LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT).

AS FAR AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...TYPICALLY LINES OF STORMS DO NOT
PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE ALONG THEIR ENTIRE LENGTH...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS
DO OCCUR ALONG MOST OF IT. THIS IS LIKELY TO BE THE CASE AGAIN
TONIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...ORGANIZED BOW ECHOES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR
TONIGHT AND IN THIS CASE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
WIND DAMAGE (70-80 MPH WINDS) ALONG WITH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
TORNADOES. ANY TORNADOES WHICH FORM WILL LIKELY BE SHORT IN DURATION
BUT COULD FORM QUICKLY AND DO DAMAGE. SOME CELLS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL...BUT HAIL WILL BE A SECONDARY CONCERN TO THE WIND DAMAGE
AND TORNADO POTENTIAL. ALSO...RAINFALL RATES WILL BE HIGH...BUT
INTENSE RAINFALL WILL BE BRIEF SO NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD FLOOD/
FLASH FLOOD EVENT AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED PROBLEMS MAY
OCCUR.

SINCE THE STORMS WILL BE OCCURRING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...A MORE ATYPICAL TIME OF OCCURRENCE FOR US...AND
SINCE PEOPLE MAY BE SLEEPING...PEOPLE ARE ENCOURAGED TO HAVE A
DEFINITE PLAN OF ACTION AND KNOW WHAT TO DO WHEN WARNINGS ARE ISSUED
OR WEATHER CONDITIONS DETERIORATE RAPIDLY. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
NOT LAST LONG AT ANY ONE LOCATION SINCE STORMS WILL BE RACING EWD.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED MORNING...MODELS SHOW
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS HANGING IN DURING THE MORNING BEFORE CLEARING
STARTS TO RETURN BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
IN OTHER WORDS...IT WILL BE A MUCH CALMER DAY AFTER A POTENTIALLY
BUSY AND STORMY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...

DIDN/T SPEND AS MUCH TIME ON THE LONG TERM TODAY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT WAS ABLE TO GIVE IT A QUICK LOOK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY STILL LOOK PRIMARILY DRY. CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY POP-UP THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE SOUTH SO WILL HOLD ON TO TINY POPS THEN.

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER AND A WARM FRONT
SHARPENS FROM THE LOW TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY IN A MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH
THE WARM FRONT NEARBY. WE MAY GET A BRIEF BREAK FRIDAY EVENING AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN RETURN
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO
OUR NORTHWEST AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GROW MORE SHEEPISH ABOUT THE CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THIS SYSTEM.  A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO SEVERE WEATHER LOOKED LIKE A
GOOD BET...BUT NOW THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY.

THE FUTURE OF THIS SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION AS WELL. THE GFS STILL
WANTS TO STALL IT OUT ROUGHLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER KEEPING US WET.
THE ECMWF STILL WANTS TO LIFT IT BACK NORTH OUT OF THE REGION
KEEPING US DRY. THE GFS SOLUTION DOES HAVE SOME WEAK SUPPORT FROM
THE GEM ENSEMBLE MEAN AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED
JUST A BIT CLOSER TO THE GFS AND WE ARE CURRENTLY IN A WET PATTERN.
THUS...WILL HOLD ON TO THE SMALL POPS WE ALREADY HAD GOING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT STAND A DECENT CHANCE AT BEING RELATIVELY
DRY...THEN A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

MATURE SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING.  CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
THROUGH LOUISVILLE INTERNATIONAL...BUT THE WORST OF THE SEVERE
CONDITIONS WILL BE EAST OF KSDF BY 20/06Z.  THE SQUALL LINE WILL
EVENTUALLY AFFECT BLUEGRASS FIELD IN LEXINGTON.  BASED ON RADAR
ESTIMATES THE LINE SHOULD BE IMPACTING THE TERMINAL BY 20/06Z.  WE
EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS WITH SFC WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH TO 40-50KTS.

FURTHER SOUTH AT KBWG...SQUALL LINE IS TAKING A BIT MORE OF AN
EAST-WEST ORIENTATION AND DIPPING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH.  LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWING A BIT OF A GUST FRONT COMING OUT OF THE LINE AND
THAT MAY IMPACT KBWG BEFORE THE RAIN GETS THERE.  ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IN SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY WILL ALSO IMPACT KBWG...SO STORMY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THERE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE......MJ
SHORT TERM.....TWF
LONG TERM......13
AVIATION.......MJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
535 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-200830-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
535 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2011 /435 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AROUND 10 PM EDT
TONIGHT. THE STORMS WILL RACE EASTWARD BETWEEN 10 PM AND 4 AM
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH...WITH ISOLATED DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 70
TO 80 MPH. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO EXPECTED...ALONG WITH SOME
HAIL. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH TOTALS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS...IS ALSO LIKELY.

SINCE THESE SEVERE AND POTENTIALLY FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE OUTLOOK AREA AT NIGHT...WE HIGHLY ENCOURAGE
YOU TO SET YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO TO ALERT MODE SO THAT YOU CAN BE
AWAKENED IN THE EVENT THAT A WARNING IS ISSUED WHILE YOU ARE ASLEEP.
MANY SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL AS FLASH FLOOD FATALITIES OCCUR LATE AT
NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE BLUEGRASS
AND LAKE CUMBERLAND REGIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST.

SCATTERED STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH MAY BRING A ROUND OF
STRONG STORMS MAINLY FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS LOST SOME OF ITS POTENCY IN RECENT FORECASTS...STAY TUNED TO
SEE HOW THIS NEXT SYSTEM SHAPES UP.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HEAVY RAINS FROM THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE RISING WATER
LEVELS ON AREA RIVERS...INCLUDING THE OHIO...AND MAY RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODS AND AREAL FLOODING AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR TONIGHT AND MAY BE NEEDED LATE
IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

KIRKPATRICK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
245 AM EDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 AM     HAIL             BOWLING GREEN           36.97N  86.44W
04/20/2011  E1.00 INCH       WARREN             KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100460

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
301 AM EDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 AM     TSTM WND GST     BYBEE                   37.73N  84.12W
04/20/2011  M58 MPH          MADISON            KY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100461

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
304 AM EDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BROWNSVILLE             37.19N  86.26W
04/20/2011                   EDMONSON           KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON HOMES IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100462

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
305 AM EDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 AM     HAIL             BROWNSVILLE             37.19N  86.26W
04/20/2011  E1.00 INCH       EDMONSON           KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100463

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
307 AM EDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 AM     TSTM WND GST     GLASGOW                 37.00N  85.92W
04/20/2011  M69 MPH          BARREN             KY   AWOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100464

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
315 AM EDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BOWLING GREEN           36.97N  86.44W
04/20/2011                   WARREN             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES WERE DOWN...SOME ON POWER LINES. POWER LINES
            DOWN. TREES BLOCKING ROADS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100465

MRC