Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2011

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Louisville, KY

April 19, 20116 counties in Kentucky

NWS Louisville, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Apr 19, 2011, 11:13 PM CDT for 6 counties in Kentucky. It was in force for 47 min. 7 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Apr 19, 2011, 11:13 PM CDT (04:13 UTC)
Expired
Apr 20, 2011, 12:00 AM CDT
In force
47 min
Issued by
NWS Louisville, KY
Area
Storm-based polygon
Hail
1.0 in
Wind
60.0 mph

Counties Breckinridge County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Hancock County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Meade County, KY, Ohio County, KY

The radar

The Louisville radar (KLVX), 72 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Apr 19, 11:14 PM CDTTSTM WND GST 59Deanefield, KY
Apr 19, 11:17 PM CDTTSTM WND DMGHardinsburg, KYTREES DOWN ACROSS HIGHWAY 333
Apr 19, 11:21 PM CDTTSTM WND DMGOlaton, KYTREES AND POWER LINES DOWN
Apr 19, 11:24 PM CDTTSTM WND DMGBeaver Dam, KYTREES AND POWER LINES DOWN
Apr 19, 11:44 PM CDTTSTM WND GST 60Leitchfield, KY
Apr 19, 11:51 PM CDTTSTM WND DMGLeitchfield, KYTREES DOWN
Apr 20, 12:03 AM CDTHAIL 0.88Leitchfield, KY

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 6 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 1 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
Apr 19, 9:13 PM CDTTornado WatchSPC6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 00:00Z, 4.2 hours before the alert went out and 161 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Nashville Metro, TN at 00:00Z on 2011-04-20Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1997 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Nashville Metro, TN at 00:00Z on 2011-04-20The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 92 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1997 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-93 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1626 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
92 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
239 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.4
Supercell composite
7.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

700 
WUUS53 KLMK 200413
SVRLMK
KYC027-085-091-093-163-183-200500-
/O.NEW.KLMK.SV.W.0108.110420T0413Z-110420T0500Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1113 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  BRECKINRIDGE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
  HARDIN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
  SOUTHEASTERN MEADE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
  SOUTHEASTERN HANCOCK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
  OHIO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
  GRAYSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT/100 AM EDT/

* AT 1108 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
  HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
  LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HENSLEY TO HITES FALLS TO
  BEAVER DAM...MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  LEITCHFIELD...
  HARTFORD...
  HARDINSBURG...
  FLAHERTY AND VERTREES...
  VINE GROVE AND ROGERSVILLE...
  ADDINGTON FIELD AIRPORT AND WHITE MILLS JUNCTION...
  SKAGGSTOWN AND ROCK CREEK...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...MOVE QUICKLY TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND HAVE THEM RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3763 8692 3767 8684 3770 8687 3783 8678
      3787 8584 3786 8582 3757 8598 3737 8617
      3737 8652 3740 8662 3737 8667 3737 8711
      3745 8712
TIME...MOT...LOC 0413Z 268DEG 66KT 3780 8621 3757 8646
          3738 8677
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

AL
3 follow-up statements
434 
WWUS53 KLMK 200435
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1235 AM EDT WED APR 20 2011

KYC091-200444-
/O.CAN.KLMK.SV.W.0108.000000T0000Z-110420T0500Z/
HANCOCK KY-
1135 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HANCOCK COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...
WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3763 8692 3767 8684 3766 8663 3768 8664
      3784 8645 3787 8584 3786 8582 3757 8598
      3737 8617 3737 8652 3740 8662 3737 8667
      3737 8711 3746 8711
TIME...MOT...LOC 0434Z 268DEG 66KT 3780 8572 3758 8597
          3739 8629

$$

KYC027-085-093-163-183-200500-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0108.000000T0000Z-110420T0500Z/
MEADE KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-HARDIN KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-
1135 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT
CDT/100 AM EDT/ FOR GRAYSON...OHIO...HARDIN...SOUTHERN BRECKINRIDGE
AND SOUTHEASTERN MEADE COUNTIES...

AT 1232 AM EDT/1132 PM CDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES EAST OF
LONG VIEW TO WHITE MILLS JUNCTION TO SHREWSBURY...MOVING EAST AT 65 
MPH. 

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  LEITCHFIELD...
  HARTFORD...
  HARDINSBURG...
  HUFFMAN AND SNAP...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...
WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3763 8692 3767 8684 3766 8663 3768 8664
      3784 8645 3787 8584 3786 8582 3757 8598
      3737 8617 3737 8652 3740 8662 3737 8667
      3737 8711 3746 8711
TIME...MOT...LOC 0434Z 268DEG 66KT 3780 8572 3758 8597
          3739 8629
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

EER
342 
WWUS53 KLMK 200448 RRA
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1248 AM EDT WED APR 20 2011

KYC163-200457-
/O.CAN.KLMK.SV.W.0108.000000T0000Z-110420T0500Z/
MEADE KY-
1248 AM EDT WED APR 20 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MEADE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...
WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3747 8705 3753 8686 3767 8663 3787 8584
      3786 8582 3757 8598 3737 8617 3737 8652
      3740 8662 3737 8667 3737 8711
TIME...MOT...LOC 0447Z 268DEG 66KT 3780 8541 3758 8567
          3739 8599

$$

KYC027-085-093-183-200500-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0108.000000T0000Z-110420T0500Z/
BRECKINRIDGE KY-HARDIN KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-
1148 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT
CDT/100 AM EDT/ FOR GRAYSON...CENTRAL OHIO...HARDIN AND SOUTHERN
BRECKINRIDGE COUNTIES...

AT 1246 AM EDT/1146 PM CDT/...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS
REPORTED  QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 26 MILES EAST
OF LONG VIEW TO 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ADDINGTON FIELD AIRPORT TO 8 
MILES EAST OF SNAP...MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH. WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH 
WERE REPORTED IN LEITCHFIELD WITH THIS STORM. IN ADDITION THESE 
STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. PONDING OF WATER WILL 
BE POSSIBLE ON ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...

  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL OHIO...GRAYSON...HARDIN AND SOUTHERN
  BRECKINRIDGE COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...
WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3747 8705 3753 8686 3767 8663 3787 8584
      3786 8582 3757 8598 3737 8617 3737 8652
      3740 8662 3737 8667 3737 8711
TIME...MOT...LOC 0447Z 268DEG 66KT 3780 8541 3758 8567
          3739 8599
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

EER
405 
WWUS53 KLMK 200500
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1200 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

KYC027-085-093-183-200510-
/O.EXP.KLMK.SV.W.0108.000000T0000Z-110420T0500Z/
BRECKINRIDGE KY-HARDIN KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-
1200 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR GRAYSON...CENTRAL OHIO...
HARDIN AND SOUTHERN BRECKINRIDGE COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...
WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3747 8705 3753 8686 3767 8663 3787 8584
      3786 8582 3757 8598 3737 8617 3737 8652
      3740 8662 3737 8667 3737 8711
TIME...MOT...LOC 0500Z 268DEG 66KT 3780 8510 3758 8537
          3739 8569

$$

EER

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Apr 19, 10:38 PM CDT, 35 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 19, 10:38 PM CDT, 35 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1138 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

...MESOSCALE UPDATE...

...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT UNFOLDING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND WEST-CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

WELL DEVELOPED QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MATURE
AND SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND WEST-CENTRAL
KENTUCKY.  THE LINE IS NOW ENTERING OUR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
SERVICE AREA.  REPORTS COMING OUT OF OWENSBORO INDICATE THAT 75-80
MPH WINDS ARE OCCURING WITH THIS LINE.  MULTIPLE WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 65.

MESOSCALE ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY UNSTABLE AND MOIST
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.  OVERALL
ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH MESOVORTICES WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE ITSELF.

BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR SCANS...THIS LINE WILL BE IMPACTING THE
LOUISVILLE METRO AREA BETWEEN WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...MAINLY BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 100 AM EDT.  WITH THIS LINE CONTINUING TO MAINTAIN ITS
STRENGTH...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
LOUISVILLE METRO AREA AND SURROUNDING SUBURBS WITHIN THE NEXT 60
MINUTES.  WINDS OF 70 MPH OR MORE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
TREES COMING DOWN ALONG WITH LARGE AREAS OF POWER OUTAGES.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...

...SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WIND DAMAGE...SOME OF IT POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES EXPECTED...

PARAMETERS STILL IN PLACE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK OVER
S-CENTRAL IND AND CENTRAL KY TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
CAPPING INVERSION HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE
STARTING TO ERODE. TEMPS NOW WARMING NICELY WITH READINGS NOW IN MID
70S TO MID 80S. WARM FRONT...RESPONSIBLE FOR TSTMS THIS MORNING OVER
PARTS OF SRN IND...HAS LIFTED JUST N OF AREA. AT THIS TIME...ANOTHER
AXIS OF ENHANCED CLOUDS WAS LOCATED OVER SRN IL INTO SW IND WHERE
SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN AREA OF
SLOWLY ERODING CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT. 12Z NAM ACTUALLY RESOLVED
THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS SOME WARM-SECTOR CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
TSTMS OVER S-CENTRAL IND AND N-CENTRAL KY THROUGH EARLY EVENING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE.

SPC HAS JUST ISSUED THE FIRST TORNADO WATCH FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL IL
TO SRN/SW MO...THE AREA WHERE THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL
BEGIN. IN THIS AREA...INSTABILITY...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...AND
INCREASING FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TSTMS TO EXPAND
RAPIDLY AS THE CAP IS BROKEN. CELLULAR-BASED CONVECTION (I.E.
SUPERCELLS) IS LIKELY IN THIS AREA. THIS AREA WILL CONGEAL INTO A
LINEAR MODE OF CONVECTION (I.E., SQUALL LINE) WITH BOWING SEGMENTS
INCREASING IN NUMBER WITH TIME AS THE LINE MOVES E INTO THE LOWER OH
VALLEY THIS EVENING. THE MODELS ARE USUALLY SLOW IN THE TIMING OF
THE LINE AS THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN WITH THE STORMS HELPS
TO ACCELERATE THE LINE FASTER THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED GIVEN AMBIENT
WIND FIELDS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT LINE TO REACH OUR FAR NW COUNTY
(DUBOIS) IN IND BY ABOUT 10 PM EDT...LOUISVILLE TO BOWLING GREEN
AXIS ABOUT 11 PM OR MIDNIGHT...FRANKFORT ABOUT 12-2 AM AND LEXINGTON
AROUND 2-3 AM EDT.

ALTHOUGH CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG AND JUST E OF THE FRONT IN MO
THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER THE STORMS BECOME AN ORGANIZED LINE...THE
LINE WILL RACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MODELS HINT THAT A SECONDARY
LINE OF AT LEAST SCT TSTMS COULD FORM ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT A
COUPLE/FEW HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL LINE. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL LINE
WILL BE THE MAIN ONE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...
DESPITE THE TIME OF DAY (I.E. LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT).

AS FAR AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...TYPICALLY LINES OF STORMS DO NOT
PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE ALONG THEIR ENTIRE LENGTH...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS
DO OCCUR ALONG MOST OF IT. THIS IS LIKELY TO BE THE CASE AGAIN
TONIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...ORGANIZED BOW ECHOES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR
TONIGHT AND IN THIS CASE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
WIND DAMAGE (70-80 MPH WINDS) ALONG WITH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
TORNADOES. ANY TORNADOES WHICH FORM WILL LIKELY BE SHORT IN DURATION
BUT COULD FORM QUICKLY AND DO DAMAGE. SOME CELLS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL...BUT HAIL WILL BE A SECONDARY CONCERN TO THE WIND DAMAGE
AND TORNADO POTENTIAL. ALSO...RAINFALL RATES WILL BE HIGH...BUT
INTENSE RAINFALL WILL BE BRIEF SO NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD FLOOD/
FLASH FLOOD EVENT AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED PROBLEMS MAY
OCCUR.

SINCE THE STORMS WILL BE OCCURRING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...A MORE ATYPICAL TIME OF OCCURRENCE FOR US...AND
SINCE PEOPLE MAY BE SLEEPING...PEOPLE ARE ENCOURAGED TO HAVE A
DEFINITE PLAN OF ACTION AND KNOW WHAT TO DO WHEN WARNINGS ARE ISSUED
OR WEATHER CONDITIONS DETERIORATE RAPIDLY. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
NOT LAST LONG AT ANY ONE LOCATION SINCE STORMS WILL BE RACING EWD.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED MORNING...MODELS SHOW
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS HANGING IN DURING THE MORNING BEFORE CLEARING
STARTS TO RETURN BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
IN OTHER WORDS...IT WILL BE A MUCH CALMER DAY AFTER A POTENTIALLY
BUSY AND STORMY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...

DIDN/T SPEND AS MUCH TIME ON THE LONG TERM TODAY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT WAS ABLE TO GIVE IT A QUICK LOOK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY STILL LOOK PRIMARILY DRY. CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY POP-UP THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE SOUTH SO WILL HOLD ON TO TINY POPS THEN.

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER AND A WARM FRONT
SHARPENS FROM THE LOW TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY IN A MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH
THE WARM FRONT NEARBY. WE MAY GET A BRIEF BREAK FRIDAY EVENING AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN RETURN
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO
OUR NORTHWEST AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GROW MORE SHEEPISH ABOUT THE CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THIS SYSTEM.  A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO SEVERE WEATHER LOOKED LIKE A
GOOD BET...BUT NOW THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY.

THE FUTURE OF THIS SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION AS WELL. THE GFS STILL
WANTS TO STALL IT OUT ROUGHLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER KEEPING US WET.
THE ECMWF STILL WANTS TO LIFT IT BACK NORTH OUT OF THE REGION
KEEPING US DRY. THE GFS SOLUTION DOES HAVE SOME WEAK SUPPORT FROM
THE GEM ENSEMBLE MEAN AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED
JUST A BIT CLOSER TO THE GFS AND WE ARE CURRENTLY IN A WET PATTERN.
THUS...WILL HOLD ON TO THE SMALL POPS WE ALREADY HAD GOING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT STAND A DECENT CHANCE AT BEING RELATIVELY
DRY...THEN A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

A SQUALL LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU ALL
TAF SITES LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY WED MORNING...RESULTING IN ABOUT A
2-HR WINDOW OF LIFR TO IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS
0F 40-50KTS. CDFNT WILL FOLLOW LINE AND MOVE THRU ALL TAF SITES BY
13Z.

AFTERWARD...MVFR CIGS AND WEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH CLEARING BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE......MJ
SHORT TERM.....TWF
LONG TERM......13
AVIATION.......DK/11
Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 19, 4:35 PM CDT, 6 hours 38 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
535 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-200830-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
535 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2011 /435 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AROUND 10 PM EDT
TONIGHT. THE STORMS WILL RACE EASTWARD BETWEEN 10 PM AND 4 AM
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH...WITH ISOLATED DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 70
TO 80 MPH. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO EXPECTED...ALONG WITH SOME
HAIL. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH TOTALS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS...IS ALSO LIKELY.

SINCE THESE SEVERE AND POTENTIALLY FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE OUTLOOK AREA AT NIGHT...WE HIGHLY ENCOURAGE
YOU TO SET YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO TO ALERT MODE SO THAT YOU CAN BE
AWAKENED IN THE EVENT THAT A WARNING IS ISSUED WHILE YOU ARE ASLEEP.
MANY SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL AS FLASH FLOOD FATALITIES OCCUR LATE AT
NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE BLUEGRASS
AND LAKE CUMBERLAND REGIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST.

SCATTERED STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH MAY BRING A ROUND OF
STRONG STORMS MAINLY FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS LOST SOME OF ITS POTENCY IN RECENT FORECASTS...STAY TUNED TO
SEE HOW THIS NEXT SYSTEM SHAPES UP.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HEAVY RAINS FROM THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE RISING WATER
LEVELS ON AREA RIVERS...INCLUDING THE OHIO...AND MAY RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODS AND AREAL FLOODING AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR TONIGHT AND MAY BE NEEDED LATE
IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

KIRKPATRICK

In the hours before

Local storm report, Apr 19, 11:03 PM CDT, 10 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1203 AM EDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1203 AM     TSTM WND GST     LEWISPORT               37.93N  86.90W
04/20/2011  M66 MPH          HANCOCK            KY   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100411

SZAPPANOS
Local storm report, Apr 19, 11:05 PM CDT, 8 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1205 AM EDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 PM     TSTM WND GST     JASPER                  38.39N  86.94W
04/19/2011  M67 MPH          DUBOIS             IN   MESONET

            MEASURED AT JASPER MIDDLE SCHOOL

1134 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JASPER                  38.39N  86.94W
04/19/2011                   DUBOIS             IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS THE CITY.

1135 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JASPER                  38.39N  86.94W
04/19/2011                   DUBOIS             IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            OVERTURNED MOBILE HOMES REPORTED IN THE CITY OF JASPER.

1138 PM     TSTM WND GST     TASWELL                 38.33N  86.57W
04/19/2011  M65 MPH          CRAWFORD           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

1143 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW TELL CITY          37.98N  86.80W
04/19/2011                   PERRY              IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES REPORTED DOWN.

1149 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TELL CITY               37.95N  86.76W
04/19/2011                   PERRY              IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS THE CITY.

1150 PM     TSTM WND GST     PAOLI                   38.56N  86.47W
04/19/2011  M60 MPH          ORANGE             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

1150 PM     TSTM WND GST     ORLEANS                 38.66N  86.45W
04/19/2011  M63 MPH          ORANGE             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

1151 PM     TSTM WND GST     ENGLISH                 38.33N  86.46W
04/19/2011  M65 MPH          CRAWFORD           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

1158 PM     TSTM WND GST     LEAVENWORTH             38.20N  86.35W
04/19/2011  E65 MPH          CRAWFORD           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

1202 AM     TSTM WND GST     ROME                    37.93N  86.53W
04/20/2011  M63 MPH          PERRY              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

1203 AM     TSTM WND GST     LEWISPORT               37.93N  86.90W
04/20/2011  M66 MPH          HANCOCK            KY   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100400 LMK1100401 LMK1100402 LMK1100403 LMK1100404
LMK1100407 LMK1100405 LMK1100408 LMK1100406 LMK1100409 LMK1100410
LMK1100411

SZAPPANOS
Local storm report, Apr 19, 11:08 PM CDT, 5 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1208 AM EDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1207 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HARDINSBURG             37.78N  86.45W
04/20/2011                   BRECKINRIDGE       KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN WEST OF THE CITY

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100412

SZAPPANOS
Local storm report, Apr 19, 11:10 PM CDT, 3 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1210 AM EDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LEAVENWORTH             38.20N  86.35W
04/20/2011                   CRAWFORD           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100414

SZAPPANOS
Local storm report, Apr 19, 11:11 PM CDT, 2 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1211 AM EDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1203 AM     TSTM WND DMG     VALEENE                 38.43N  86.40W
04/20/2011                   ORANGE             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100415

SZAPPANOS
Local storm report, Apr 19, 11:12 PM CDT, 1 minute before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1212 AM EDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 PM     TSTM WND GST     JASPER                  38.39N  86.94W
04/19/2011  M67 MPH          DUBOIS             IN   MESONET

            MEASURED AT JASPER MIDDLE SCHOOL

1134 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JASPER                  38.39N  86.94W
04/19/2011                   DUBOIS             IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS THE CITY.

1135 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JASPER                  38.39N  86.94W
04/19/2011                   DUBOIS             IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            OVERTURNED MOBILE HOMES REPORTED IN THE CITY OF JASPER.

1138 PM     TSTM WND GST     TASWELL                 38.33N  86.57W
04/19/2011  M65 MPH          CRAWFORD           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

1143 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW TELL CITY          37.98N  86.80W
04/19/2011                   PERRY              IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES REPORTED DOWN.

1149 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TELL CITY               37.95N  86.76W
04/19/2011                   PERRY              IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS THE CITY.

1150 PM     TSTM WND GST     PAOLI                   38.56N  86.47W
04/19/2011  M60 MPH          ORANGE             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

1150 PM     TSTM WND GST     ORLEANS                 38.66N  86.45W
04/19/2011  M63 MPH          ORANGE             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

1151 PM     TSTM WND GST     ENGLISH                 38.33N  86.46W
04/19/2011  M65 MPH          CRAWFORD           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

1158 PM     TSTM WND GST     LEAVENWORTH             38.20N  86.35W
04/19/2011  E65 MPH          CRAWFORD           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

1202 AM     TSTM WND GST     ROME                    37.93N  86.53W
04/20/2011  M63 MPH          PERRY              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

1203 AM     TSTM WND GST     LEWISPORT               37.93N  86.90W
04/20/2011  M66 MPH          HANCOCK            KY   MESONET

1203 AM     TSTM WND DMG     VALEENE                 38.43N  86.40W
04/20/2011                   ORANGE             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN

1207 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HARDINSBURG             37.78N  86.45W
04/20/2011                   BRECKINRIDGE       KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN WEST OF THE CITY

1209 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CORYDON                 38.21N  86.13W
04/20/2011                   HARRISON           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN

1210 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LEAVENWORTH             38.20N  86.35W
04/20/2011                   CRAWFORD           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

1212 AM     TSTM WND GST     HARDINSBURG             37.78N  86.45W
04/20/2011  M60 MPH          BRECKINRIDGE       KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100400 LMK1100401 LMK1100402 LMK1100403 LMK1100404
LMK1100407 LMK1100405 LMK1100408 LMK1100406 LMK1100409 LMK1100410
LMK1100411 LMK1100415 LMK1100412 LMK1100413 LMK1100414 LMK1100416

SZAPPANOS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Louisville, KY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 19, 9:26 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLMKHancock49 min
Apr 19, 9:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKHancock24 min
Apr 19, 9:59 PM CDTTornado WarningLMKHancock46 min
Apr 19, 10:11 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKHancock, Ohio34 min
Apr 19, 10:29 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKBreckinridge, Grayson, Hancock, Meade46 min
Apr 19, 10:34 PM CDTTornado WarningLMKMeade41 min
Apr 19, 10:45 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKHancock, Ohio30 min
Apr 19, 10:54 PM CDTTornado WarningLMKBreckinridge, Meade36 min
Apr 19, 11:04 PM CDTTornado WarningLMKBullitt, Hardin, Jefferson56 min
Apr 19, 11:17 PM CDTTornado WarningLMKTrimble43 min
Apr 19, 11:25 PM CDTTornado WarningLMKHenry, Oldham, Trimble50 min
Apr 19, 11:38 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKBullitt, Grayson, Hardin, Hart, Larue, Nelson37 min
Apr 19, 11:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKAnderson, Henry, Nelson, Shelby, Spencer46 min
Apr 19, 11:49 PM CDTTornado WarningLMKShelby, Spencer26 min
Apr 20, 12:09 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKMarion, Nelson, Washington36 min
Apr 20, 12:10 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKBarren, Butler, Edmonson, Grayson, Hart, Metcalfe and 1 more35 min
Apr 20, 12:17 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryLMKBreckinridge, Grayson, Hancock, Ohio3 hr
Apr 20, 12:18 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKGreen, Larue, Marion, Taylor42 min
Apr 20, 12:19 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKAnderson, Bourbon, Clark, Fayette, Franklin, Harrison and 6 more41 min
Apr 20, 12:26 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKBoyle, Casey, Garrard, Jessamine, Lincoln, Madison and 2 more34 min
Apr 20, 12:43 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKButler, Logan, Simpson47 min
Apr 20, 12:43 AM CDTTornado WarningLMKBourbon, Fayette, Harrison, Scott17 min
Apr 20, 12:50 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKAllen, Barren, Butler, Edmonson, Hart, Metcalfe and 2 more40 min
Apr 20, 12:58 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKBourbon, Clark, Fayette, Harrison, Jessamine, Nicholas and 1 more32 min
Apr 20, 1:02 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKBoyle, Clark, Garrard, Jessamine, Lincoln, Madison43 min
Apr 20, 1:02 AM CDTTornado WarningLMKLogan, Simpson28 min
Apr 20, 1:07 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningLMKButler, Edmonson, Grayson, Ohio3 hr
Apr 20, 1:07 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKAdair, Casey, Green, Lincoln, Russell, Taylor38 min
Apr 20, 1:25 AM CDTTornado WarningLMKAllen, Simpson35 min
Apr 20, 1:29 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKAllen, Barren, Butler, Edmonson, Hart, Logan and 3 more46 min
Apr 20, 1:49 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryLMKBarren, Boyle, Casey, Edmonson, Grayson, Green and 8 more3 hr
Apr 20, 1:49 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKAdair, Boyle, Casey, Garrard, Green, Lincoln and 4 more41 min
Apr 20, 1:52 AM CDTTornado WarningLMKAllen, Barren, Monroe23 min
Apr 20, 2:13 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKAllen, Barren, Cumberland, Metcalfe, Monroe32 min
Apr 20, 2:16 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKAdair, Barren, Casey, Clinton, Cumberland, Metcalfe and 2 more29 min
Apr 20, 2:34 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLMKClinton, Cumberland26 min
Apr 20, 2:47 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKAdair, Casey, Clinton, Cumberland, Russell28 min
Apr 20, 6:45 AM CDTRiver Flood AdvisoryLMKOhio24 hr
Apr 20, 9:24 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLMKJefferson, Oldham15 days
Apr 20, 9:24 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLMKJefferson, Meade49 hr
Apr 20, 9:24 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLMKBreckinridge, Hancock17 days

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kentucky, 2011Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.