Severe Thunderstorm Warning 195, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1158 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

.SHORT TERM.../THIS AFTERNOON/...UPDATED

ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. IT WAS NOT HANDLED WELL
BY THE MODELS AND WAS NOT ANTICIPATED SO EARLY IN THE DAY. ITS
INITIATION WAS OBVIOUSLY ELEVATED...LIKELY OWING TO WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION. HOWEVER...LOCAL VAD WIND PROFILES ALSO SHOWED THE LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TOPPED BY A LAYER OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
WHICH MAY HAVE ALSO AIDED THE INITIATION. WILL NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
GREAT INCREASE IN COVERAGE DESPITE HEATING...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FEATURES TO FOCUS DEVELOPMENT...AND A POTENTIAL FOR DRIER AIR
ALOFT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO BEGIN MIXING DOWN AS MIXING BECOMES
DEEPER. HOWEVER...HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THE
ENTIRE AREA TODAY...CONSIDERING THE ACTIVITY ONGOING AT MID DAY IN
THE SW WHERE THERE WAS NOTHING IN THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE
FOR TODAY.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN HAS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE INTER
MOUNTAIN WEST...ANOTHER LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND A BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE RIDGE HAS BECOME RELATIVELY
SUPPRESSED OF RECENT WHICH WILL ALLOW MINOR SHORT WAVES TO SPARK
PERIODS OF TSRA ACTIVITY... MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SAT AND
SAT NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR AREA WIDE PRECIPITATION. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. IN THE MEANTIME WE WILL SEE
CONTINUED UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A ZONAL PATTERN
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A CLOSED 500MB LOW MOVING UP THE ST
LAWRENCE SEAWAY. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURE WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS APPEARS TO
HAVE BEEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND THE AREA WILL ENTER ANOTHER
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. THE FRONT THEN STALLS SOUTH OF THE BORDER IN
TN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE DESERT SW AND ALLOW A 50H TROUGH
TO BECOME BRIEFLY ESTABLISHED IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A
SERIES OF FRONTAL BNDRYS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH WAVES OF
ALTERNATING WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH AND LIFT AGAIN OVER
THE COMMONWEALTH ON WED AND WED NIGHT. THEN THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE AREA AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS. AFTER A BRIEF FLIRTATION WITH
LOWER 80S EARLY IN THE WEEK... THE HIGHS WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE MID
80S BEFORE THE MID WEEK FRONT DROPS THEM SLIGHTLY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED

VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING AT MID DAY. THEY MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE A LOT
OF COVERAGE. WILL USE CB IN THE TAF CLOUD GROUPS...WITH CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE TS OR EVEN VCTS IN TAFS. ANY REMAINING STORMS SHOULD
DIE OUT EARLY THIS EVENING. VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH LOCALIZED VLIFR...BUT PROBABLY NOT
LOWER THAN MVFR AT TAF SITES. OUTSIDE OF VALLEY FOG AND ISOLATED
STORMS...VFR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...DUSTY/HAL
LONG TERM....DUSTY
AVIATION...HAL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
255 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-111000-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
255 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOCALLY
DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DUSTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1107 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0541 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KECK                    37.61N 83.36W
06/09/2011                   BREATHITT          KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            6-7 TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 1812 BETWEEN MILE MARKER 6 AND
            7.

0628 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E QUICKSAND           37.53N 83.33W
06/09/2011                   BREATHITT          KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            1 TREE DOWN ON HIGHWAY 1098 BETWEEN MILE MARKER 1 AND 2
            AT SOUTH FORK.

&&

JCARICO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1211 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

KYZ068-069-079-080-101700-
ROCKCASTLE-PULASKI-LAUREL-JACKSON-
1211 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 100
PM EDT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

   EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL JACKSON...
   SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKCASTLE...
   EXTREME EAST CENTRAL PULASKI AND
   NORTHERN LAUREL.

AT 1211 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LUNER...OR 11
MILES SOUTH OF MOUNT VERNON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...WOOD CREEK LAKE
AROUND 1220 PM EDT...HARE AROUND 1225 PM EDT...CARMICHAEL AROUND 1230
PM EDT...EAST BERNSTADT AROUND 1235 PM EDT...PITTSBURG AROUND 1240 PM
EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

BECKER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1225 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

KYZ104-106-107-101645-
ELLIOTT-JOHNSON-MORGAN-
1225 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH
1245 PM EDT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

   SOUTHEASTERN ELLIOTT...
   EAST CENTRAL MORGAN AND
   NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON.

AT 1225 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CULVER...OR 7
MILES EAST OF SANDY HOOK...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...KEATON AROUND
1230 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

BECKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
104 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1248 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N LONDON              37.16N 84.08W
06/10/2011                   LAUREL             KY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 490.

&&

DSHALLEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
213 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

KYZ044-050>052-101900-
FLEMING-ROWAN-BATH-MONTGOMERY-
213 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 300
PM EDT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

   SOUTHERN FLEMING...
   EXTREME WEST CENTRAL ROWAN...
   BATH AND
   EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL MONTGOMERY.

AT 213 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BETHEL...OR 14
MILES SOUTHWEST OF FLEMINGSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...BETHEL AROUND
225 PM EDT...BETHEL AROUND 230 PM EDT...SHERBURNE AROUND 240 PM
EDT...CRAINTOWN AROUND 245 PM EDT...TILTON AROUND 250 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP
TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

SHALLENBERGER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
225 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

KYZ050-101900-
MONTGOMERY-
225 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTY THROUGH 300
PM EDT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

   MONTGOMERY.

AT 224 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WADES MILL...
OR 6 MILES WEST OF MOUNT STERLING...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...SIDEVIEW AROUND
230 PM EDT...WADES MILL AROUND 235 PM EDT...PREWITT AROUND 240 PM
EDT...MOUNT STERLING AROUND 250 PM EDT...GATEWOODS STATION AROUND 300
PM EDT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN
ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

RAY