Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
245 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

...SCATTERED STRONG AND ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...EAST TO WEST BACK DOOR FRONT AT THE
SURFACE ACRS THE FORECAST AREA IN ADDITION TO SHORTWAVE PUSHING
SOUTH ACRS THE REGION FROM THE SERN U.S. WILL TRIGGER SCTD
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ADDED STRONG
HAIL/WIND WORDING INTO THE GRIDS/ZFP TO ACCOUNT FOR SPS/SVR
ISSUANCES LIKELY THROUGH SUNSET AND LINGERING UNTIL MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. STORMS WILL GENERALLY HAVE MOVEMENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BUT
ERRATIC MOVEMENT FROM BOUNDARY/STORM COLLISIONS IS ALSO LIKELY AND
WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...ANY SCTD STRONG/SVR STORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MIDNIGHT
WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY REMAINING POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY/AREAS
OF FOG WILL DEVELOP...MAINLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN...BUT ALSO
WILL MIX WITH SMOKE NEAR WILDFIRE LOCATIONS...WHERE LOCALLY DENSE
SMOKE/FOG CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING. LOWS GENERALLY
AROUND 70 DEGREES.

TUESDAY...LEFTOVER BOUNDARY ACRS NERN FL WILL PROMOTE ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
I-75 CORRIDOR BEFORE THEY PUSH WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
SUNSET. MAX TEMPS STILL SURGING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER
INLAND AREAS UNDER PARTIAL SUNSHINE...WHILE AREAS ALONG THE COAST
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

WED/THU...HIGH WILL RE-BUILD ITSELF BACK OVER TOP OF THE REGION AND
WITH DRY CONDS IN THE MID LEVELS...A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH
JUST AN ISOLD TSTM DURING THE AFTERNOON ACRS MARION COUNTY. MAX
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE SURGE INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S OVER INLAND AREAS
AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI...STILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY AS RIDGE LIFTS JUST EVER SO SLIGHTLY
TO THE NORTH WITH ISOLD DAYTIME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY PSBL ACRS NERN
FL. STILL HOT WITH LOWER/MID 90S OVER INLAND AREAS.

SAT/SUN/MON...RIDGE LOOSENS ITS GRIP ACRS THE FORECAST AREA AND
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS TROPICAL AIRMASS SLOWLY
MOVES NORTHWARD UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A SLOW RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL-LIKE
SUMMER DIURNAL TSTM PATTERN. HAVE LEFT CLIMO TYPE POPS STAND IN THE
30% RANGE FOR SUN/MON AS THIS TAKES PLACE...BUT NOT HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN ANYTHING TO BREAK THE CURRENT LACK OF DAY-TO-DAY RAINFALL YET.
MAX TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL BE DEALING WITH MVFR WITH TSTMS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. RECENT RAIN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS ONCE AGAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE. MAY SEE
SOME 5 FOOT SEAS IN OUR S OFFSHORE LEG ON TUE NIGHT AND WED AS
STRONGEST E WINDS COMBINE WITH SOME SWELL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ALTHO A FEW INTERIOR SPOTS MAY SEE RH VALUES DROP TO
NEAR 35 PERCENT...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED FOR TUE. RH VALUES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER ON WED...AND A FIRE WX WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED
DEPENDING ON ERC LEVELS AFTER TODAY'S RAINS AND IF SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS CAN REACH 15 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  95  65  95 /  20   0   0  10
SSI  74  87  72  86 /  20   0   0   0
JAX  72  91  68  90 /  30  10   0   0
SGJ  72  90  71  89 /  40  20   0   0
GNV  68  95  65  94 /  50  20   0   0
OCF  69  95  67  94 /  50  20  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

HESS/CARROLL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
455 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-071000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
455 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

...STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA.
THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG AND PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...
FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLE HAIL.

THE HONEY PRAIRIE WILDFIRE CONTINUES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SEVERAL
OTHER WILDFIRES ARE BURNING IN FLAGLER AND SAINT JOHNS COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH THE SMOKE PLUMES
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. THE SMOKE PLUMES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BRING SOME
OF THE PLUMES INTO ST AUGUSTINE AS WELL AS THE JACKSONVILLE
METRO AREA. VISIBILITIES CLOSE TO AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THESE FIRES
MAY BE REDUCED TO A MILE OR LESS AND MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
SUDDEN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

HOT TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE INLAND AREAS. HEAT INDICES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 102
DEGREES. IF YOU PLAN TO BE OUTSIDE...AVOID PROLONGED EXPOSURE OR
STRENUOUS ACTIVITY. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS TO AVOID DEHYDRATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

HOT TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOONS OVER THE INLAND AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

PP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
400 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

FLZ022-GAZ162-163-062045-
CLINCH-COLUMBIA-ECHOLS-
400 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
CLINCH...SOUTHEASTERN ECHOLS AND NORTHEASTERN COLUMBIA COUNTIES FOR
STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 445 PM
EDT...

AT 401 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM FARGO TO 11 MILES
SOUTH OF FARGO...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND FARGO THROUGH 445 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO
THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3072 8250 3052 8246 3048 8261 3072 8264
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 000DEG 6KT 3069 8257 3051 8254

ZAPPE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
405 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

FLZ036-062030-
ALACHUA-
405 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN ALACHUA
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS VALID UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 405 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER ALACHUA...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
GAINESVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL
AFFECT AREAS AROUND ALACHUA...NEWBERRY AND GAINESVILLE THROUGH
430 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2957 8233 2954 8249 2962 8263 2987 8256
      2983 8233
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 014DEG 8KT 2976 8246

CARROLL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
410 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

FLZ025-032-062100-
CLAY-DUVAL-
410 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEASTERN
CLAY AND SOUTHEASTERN DUVAL COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 410 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTH OF
BAYARD TO 2 MILES NORTHWEST OF BELLAIR...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.
THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND BELLAIR...
ORANGE PARK...MANDARIN AND BAYARD THROUGH 500 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO
THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3012 8160 3013 8162 3012 8168 3011 8169
      3010 8174 3023 8182 3027 8147 3020 8143
      3015 8144
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 315DEG 9KT 3022 8147 3019 8174

ZAPPE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
412 PM EDT MON JUN 06 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             3 SW TARBORO            30.98N 81.85W
06/06/2011  E0.50 INCH       CAMDEN             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL

&&

AWALKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
413 PM EDT MON JUN 06 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0347 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 E GAINESVILLE         29.68N 82.27W
06/06/2011  M41.00 MPH       ALACHUA            FL   ASOS

            A WIND GUST OF 41 MPH WAS MEASURED AT THE GAINESVILLE
            REGIONAL AIRPORT.

0357 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NNE ORANGE PARK       30.24N 81.68W
06/06/2011  M50.00 MPH       DUVAL              FL   ASOS

            A WIND GUST OF 50 MPH WAS MEASURED AT NAVAL AIR STATION
            JACKSONVILLE.

&&

SHULER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
421 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

GAZ164-062100-
CHARLTON-
421 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEASTERN
CHARLTON COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
VALID UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 421 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WINOKUR...OR 12
MILES NORTH OF FOLKSTON...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND WINOKUR THROUGH 500 PM
EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS. IF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OCCURS A WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3096 8209 3101 8210 3102 8208 3104 8208
      3108 8206 3106 8199 3098 8197
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 353DEG 6KT 3100 8205

ZAPPE