Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
245 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

...SCATTERED STRONG AND ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...EAST TO WEST BACK DOOR FRONT AT THE
SURFACE ACRS THE FORECAST AREA IN ADDITION TO SHORTWAVE PUSHING
SOUTH ACRS THE REGION FROM THE SERN U.S. WILL TRIGGER SCTD
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ADDED STRONG
HAIL/WIND WORDING INTO THE GRIDS/ZFP TO ACCOUNT FOR SPS/SVR
ISSUANCES LIKELY THROUGH SUNSET AND LINGERING UNTIL MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. STORMS WILL GENERALLY HAVE MOVEMENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BUT
ERRATIC MOVEMENT FROM BOUNDARY/STORM COLLISIONS IS ALSO LIKELY AND
WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...ANY SCTD STRONG/SVR STORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MIDNIGHT
WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY REMAINING POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY/AREAS
OF FOG WILL DEVELOP...MAINLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN...BUT ALSO
WILL MIX WITH SMOKE NEAR WILDFIRE LOCATIONS...WHERE LOCALLY DENSE
SMOKE/FOG CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING. LOWS GENERALLY
AROUND 70 DEGREES.

TUESDAY...LEFTOVER BOUNDARY ACRS NERN FL WILL PROMOTE ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
I-75 CORRIDOR BEFORE THEY PUSH WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
SUNSET. MAX TEMPS STILL SURGING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER
INLAND AREAS UNDER PARTIAL SUNSHINE...WHILE AREAS ALONG THE COAST
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

WED/THU...HIGH WILL RE-BUILD ITSELF BACK OVER TOP OF THE REGION AND
WITH DRY CONDS IN THE MID LEVELS...A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH
JUST AN ISOLD TSTM DURING THE AFTERNOON ACRS MARION COUNTY. MAX
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE SURGE INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S OVER INLAND AREAS
AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI...STILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY AS RIDGE LIFTS JUST EVER SO SLIGHTLY
TO THE NORTH WITH ISOLD DAYTIME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY PSBL ACRS NERN
FL. STILL HOT WITH LOWER/MID 90S OVER INLAND AREAS.

SAT/SUN/MON...RIDGE LOOSENS ITS GRIP ACRS THE FORECAST AREA AND
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS TROPICAL AIRMASS SLOWLY
MOVES NORTHWARD UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A SLOW RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL-LIKE
SUMMER DIURNAL TSTM PATTERN. HAVE LEFT CLIMO TYPE POPS STAND IN THE
30% RANGE FOR SUN/MON AS THIS TAKES PLACE...BUT NOT HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN ANYTHING TO BREAK THE CURRENT LACK OF DAY-TO-DAY RAINFALL YET.
MAX TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL BE DEALING WITH MVFR WITH TSTMS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. RECENT RAIN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS ONCE AGAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE. MAY SEE
SOME 5 FOOT SEAS IN OUR S OFFSHORE LEG ON TUE NIGHT AND WED AS
STRONGEST E WINDS COMBINE WITH SOME SWELL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ALTHO A FEW INTERIOR SPOTS MAY SEE RH VALUES DROP TO
NEAR 35 PERCENT...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED FOR TUE. RH VALUES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER ON WED...AND A FIRE WX WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED
DEPENDING ON ERC LEVELS AFTER TODAY'S RAINS AND IF SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS CAN REACH 15 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  95  65  95 /  20   0   0  10
SSI  74  87  72  86 /  20   0   0   0
JAX  72  91  68  90 /  30  10   0   0
SGJ  72  90  71  89 /  40  20   0   0
GNV  68  95  65  94 /  50  20   0   0
OCF  69  95  67  94 /  50  20  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

HESS/CARROLL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
455 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-071000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
455 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

...STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA.
THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG AND PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...
FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLE HAIL.

THE HONEY PRAIRIE WILDFIRE CONTINUES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SEVERAL
OTHER WILDFIRES ARE BURNING IN FLAGLER AND SAINT JOHNS COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH THE SMOKE PLUMES
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. THE SMOKE PLUMES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BRING SOME
OF THE PLUMES INTO ST AUGUSTINE AS WELL AS THE JACKSONVILLE
METRO AREA. VISIBILITIES CLOSE TO AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THESE FIRES
MAY BE REDUCED TO A MILE OR LESS AND MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
SUDDEN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

HOT TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE INLAND AREAS. HEAT INDICES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 102
DEGREES. IF YOU PLAN TO BE OUTSIDE...AVOID PROLONGED EXPOSURE OR
STRENUOUS ACTIVITY. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS TO AVOID DEHYDRATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

HOT TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOONS OVER THE INLAND AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

PP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
242 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

FLZ033-061930-
ST. JOHNS-
242 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN ST.
JOHNS COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
VALID UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 243 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BAKERSVILLE...OR 9 MILES
WEST OF SAINT AUGUSTINE...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND BAKERSVILLE...ELKTON...
SPUDS...HASTINGS AND DUPONT CENTER THROUGH 330 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO
THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS. IF FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OCCURS A WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2966 8128 2962 8149 2962 8152 2976 8152
      2980 8157 2994 8158 2998 8138 2966 8127
TIME...MOT...LOC 1843Z 349DEG 9KT 2987 8146

HESS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
248 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

FLZ040-061930-
MARION-
248 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN
MARION COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 330 PM
EDT...

AT 248 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RAINBOW LAKES
ESTATES...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL
AFFECT AREAS AROUND RAINBOW LAKES ESTATES...OCALA AIRPORT AND
DUNNELLON THROUGH 330 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2896 8231 2901 8240 2901 8242 2905 8248
      2904 8250 2904 8253 2913 8253 2926 8235
      2920 8219 2905 8208 2895 8217
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 328DEG 8KT 2910 8239

CARROLL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
312 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

FLZ023-030>032-061945-
BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-UNION-
312 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWESTERN
CLAY...NORTHERN BRADFORD...SOUTHEASTERN BAKER AND NORTHEASTERN UNION
COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 312 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF ELLERBEE...OR 9
MILES NORTHEAST OF RAIFORD...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND ELLERBEE...RAIFORD...LAWTEY
AND JOHNSTOWN THROUGH 345 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40
TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2994 8206 3000 8233 3025 8222 3023 8205
      3019 8205 3018 8203 2997 8202
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 010DEG 14KT 3015 8215

CARROLL