Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
245 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

...SCATTERED STRONG AND ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...EAST TO WEST BACK DOOR FRONT AT THE
SURFACE ACRS THE FORECAST AREA IN ADDITION TO SHORTWAVE PUSHING
SOUTH ACRS THE REGION FROM THE SERN U.S. WILL TRIGGER SCTD
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ADDED STRONG
HAIL/WIND WORDING INTO THE GRIDS/ZFP TO ACCOUNT FOR SPS/SVR
ISSUANCES LIKELY THROUGH SUNSET AND LINGERING UNTIL MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. STORMS WILL GENERALLY HAVE MOVEMENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BUT
ERRATIC MOVEMENT FROM BOUNDARY/STORM COLLISIONS IS ALSO LIKELY AND
WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...ANY SCTD STRONG/SVR STORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MIDNIGHT
WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY REMAINING POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY/AREAS
OF FOG WILL DEVELOP...MAINLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN...BUT ALSO
WILL MIX WITH SMOKE NEAR WILDFIRE LOCATIONS...WHERE LOCALLY DENSE
SMOKE/FOG CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING. LOWS GENERALLY
AROUND 70 DEGREES.

TUESDAY...LEFTOVER BOUNDARY ACRS NERN FL WILL PROMOTE ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
I-75 CORRIDOR BEFORE THEY PUSH WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
SUNSET. MAX TEMPS STILL SURGING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER
INLAND AREAS UNDER PARTIAL SUNSHINE...WHILE AREAS ALONG THE COAST
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

WED/THU...HIGH WILL RE-BUILD ITSELF BACK OVER TOP OF THE REGION AND
WITH DRY CONDS IN THE MID LEVELS...A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH
JUST AN ISOLD TSTM DURING THE AFTERNOON ACRS MARION COUNTY. MAX
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE SURGE INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S OVER INLAND AREAS
AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI...STILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY AS RIDGE LIFTS JUST EVER SO SLIGHTLY
TO THE NORTH WITH ISOLD DAYTIME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY PSBL ACRS NERN
FL. STILL HOT WITH LOWER/MID 90S OVER INLAND AREAS.

SAT/SUN/MON...RIDGE LOOSENS ITS GRIP ACRS THE FORECAST AREA AND
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS TROPICAL AIRMASS SLOWLY
MOVES NORTHWARD UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A SLOW RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL-LIKE
SUMMER DIURNAL TSTM PATTERN. HAVE LEFT CLIMO TYPE POPS STAND IN THE
30% RANGE FOR SUN/MON AS THIS TAKES PLACE...BUT NOT HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN ANYTHING TO BREAK THE CURRENT LACK OF DAY-TO-DAY RAINFALL YET.
MAX TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL BE DEALING WITH MVFR WITH TSTMS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. RECENT RAIN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS ONCE AGAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE. MAY SEE
SOME 5 FOOT SEAS IN OUR S OFFSHORE LEG ON TUE NIGHT AND WED AS
STRONGEST E WINDS COMBINE WITH SOME SWELL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ALTHO A FEW INTERIOR SPOTS MAY SEE RH VALUES DROP TO
NEAR 35 PERCENT...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED FOR TUE. RH VALUES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER ON WED...AND A FIRE WX WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED
DEPENDING ON ERC LEVELS AFTER TODAY'S RAINS AND IF SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS CAN REACH 15 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  95  65  95 /  20   0   0  10
SSI  74  87  72  86 /  20   0   0   0
JAX  72  91  68  90 /  30  10   0   0
SGJ  72  90  71  89 /  40  20   0   0
GNV  68  95  65  94 /  50  20   0   0
OCF  69  95  67  94 /  50  20  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

HESS/CARROLL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
455 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-071000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
455 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

...STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA.
THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG AND PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...
FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLE HAIL.

THE HONEY PRAIRIE WILDFIRE CONTINUES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SEVERAL
OTHER WILDFIRES ARE BURNING IN FLAGLER AND SAINT JOHNS COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH THE SMOKE PLUMES
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. THE SMOKE PLUMES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BRING SOME
OF THE PLUMES INTO ST AUGUSTINE AS WELL AS THE JACKSONVILLE
METRO AREA. VISIBILITIES CLOSE TO AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THESE FIRES
MAY BE REDUCED TO A MILE OR LESS AND MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
SUDDEN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

HOT TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE INLAND AREAS. HEAT INDICES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 102
DEGREES. IF YOU PLAN TO BE OUTSIDE...AVOID PROLONGED EXPOSURE OR
STRENUOUS ACTIVITY. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS TO AVOID DEHYDRATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

HOT TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOONS OVER THE INLAND AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

PP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
421 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

GAZ164-062100-
CHARLTON-
421 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEASTERN
CHARLTON COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
VALID UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 421 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WINOKUR...OR 12
MILES NORTH OF FOLKSTON...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND WINOKUR THROUGH 500 PM
EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS. IF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OCCURS A WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3096 8209 3101 8210 3102 8208 3104 8208
      3108 8206 3106 8199 3098 8197
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 353DEG 6KT 3100 8205

ZAPPE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
422 PM EDT MON JUN 06 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     FLOOD            RIVERSIDE               30.31N 81.68W
06/06/2011                   DUVAL              FL   PUBLIC

            MINOR STREET FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN THE RIVERSIDE AREA
            OF DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE. SECTIONS OF OSCEOLA STREET NEAR
            HERSCHEL STREET AND OAK STREET WERE FLOODED OVER THE
            CURB.

&&

SHULER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
427 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

GAZ136-151-152-062115-
BRANTLEY-PIERCE-WAYNE-
427 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN
WAYNE...EASTERN PIERCE AND CENTRAL BRANTLEY COUNTIES FOR STRONG
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 427 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SCREVEN TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HICKOX...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND SCREVEN...HICKOX AND NAHUNTA THROUGH 515 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO
THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3148 8198 3107 8198 3108 8211 3147 8213
      3150 8213
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 324DEG 11KT 3143 8204 3106 8203

ZAPPE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
428 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

FLZ020-062115-
HAMILTON-
428 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
HAMILTON COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
VALID UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 429 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF WHITE SPRINGS...
MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT
AREAS AROUND WHITE SPRINGS THROUGH 515 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE
QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3044 8279 3033 8273 3032 8275 3033 8276
      3032 8279 3035 8280 3034 8281 3034 8284
      3036 8287 3041 8288
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 348DEG 8KT 3037 8281

ZAPPE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
434 PM EDT MON JUN 06 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 PM     HAIL             4 NW COLUMBIA           30.12N 82.73W
06/06/2011  E0.75 INCH       COLUMBIA           FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CR 247 2 MILE E OF I75

&&

AWALKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
438 PM EDT MON JUN 06 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0357 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW LAKE CITY         30.22N 82.70W
06/06/2011                   COLUMBIA           FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            COLUMBIA COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A TREE DOWN
            ON NASH ROAD.

0402 PM     HAIL             3 SSE NEWBURN           30.23N 83.11W
06/06/2011  E1.75 INCH       SUWANNEE           FL   PUBLIC

&&

SHULER