Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1030 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

.UPDATE...GOT OFF TO ONLY A SLIGHTLY COOLER START THAN YESTERDAY
MORNING BUT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT
10AM. GREENVILLE AND JACKSON WERE BOTH 10 DEGREES COOLER AT 10AM
WITH MOST OTHER SITES AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER. LOOKING AT THE JAN
SOUNDING THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A LATER START TO CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A FEW CLOUDS OVER NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV THAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE CLOUDS AND A FEW STORMS WERE NOTED SOUTH OF
PENSACOLA ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE THAT THE MODELS TRACK
WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. THIS WAVE MAY
HELP INITIATE CONVECTION OVER OUR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL
WET MICROBURST CHECKLIST CAME IN WITH LOWER CHANCES TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY FOR MICROBURSTS BUT...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN HAVE A CHANCE OF PRODUCING GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND
QUARTER SIZED HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INITIATION MAY OCCUR
OVER OUR SOUTHEAST AGAIN BUT HIGH RES MODELS ARE SHOWING GREATEST
COVERAGE TODAY OVER OUR SOUTHWEST WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST. LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN OUR
NORTHEAST. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS MORNING WITH SKC AND
PERHAPS SOME HZ IN SPOTS. BROKEN CUMULUS 4-6K FEET BY 17-23Z WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITH THE NWD MOVING
SEA BREEZE FROM THE COAST AFTER 17Z. THERE COULD BE SCATTERED TSRA
COVERAGE 4-7PM BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS NUMEROUS AS TUESDAY. ANY STORMS
COULD EASILY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 50KTS...MAINLY IMPACTING
AREAS W OF HIGHWAY 49 UNTIL SUNSET. VFR SHOULD AGAIN DOMINATE FOR
THURSDAY AND THE FOLLOWING DAYS./28/40/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2011/

..ONE MORE DAY FOR BETTER RAIN CHANCES THEN DRIER AGAIN...

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WELCOME RAINS COVERED
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SRN MS INTO PORTIONS OF NERN LA ON TUESDAY AS
THE SEA BREEZE WAS ASSISTED BY THE WWD MOVING MCV ACROSS THE REGION.
MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED ONE HALF TO ONE INCH WITH HEAVIER SPOTS UP
TO TWO INCHES GENERALLY S OF I-20 WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WERE
MORE ROBUST. EARLY THIS MORNING...PWATS OF 1.6-1.9 INCHES WERE
POSITIONED ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUTT
CENTER NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER. FESTERING STORMS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS WERE EDGING NWWD HOWEVER...THE TUTT WILL BE CREEPING
EWD LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS PIVOTS WWD AND THEN
SWD BASED ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. WHILE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST...A FINAL DAY FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA SHOULD BE SEEN FOR ABOUT OUR SWRN 2/3 OF THE
CWFA STARTING 18-21Z AS THE SEA BREEZE PROGRESSES NWD.

AGAIN TODAY...ADDED CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN A RATHER SHORT
DURATION OF THE HOTTEST HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT GET KNOCKED DOWN BY
RAIN-COOLING STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA BUILD NWWD GOING
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING SO THAT HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE MS
RIVER COUNTIES/PARISHES 21Z-01Z. K INDEXES REACH 41 AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY AXIS GENERALLY W OF A HIGHWAY 49 AXIS UNTIL THE SUN
SETS. MORE TSRA BOUNDARY COLLISIONS SHOULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
MICROBURST POTENTIAL WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES COMMON.
ISOLATED STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OF
60MPH...FROM 20Z-01Z AS OUR LAST BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEK
OCCUR. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW
WHERE QUICK 1-2 INCH RAINS MOST PROBABLE ROUGHLY KHEZ-KTVR LOCATIONS.

SLOWLY DECREASING MOISTURE AXIS ON THURSDAY APPEARS TO LINGER OVER
THE WRN CWFA INCLUDING NERN LA/SERN AR BUT THE WEAKENING MID-UPPER
SHEAR AXIS PULLS SEWD AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE TUTT CIRCULATION
TURNS EWD INTO THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO AND RESULTS IN A WEAKER
OVERALL SEA BREEZE SET UP. WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA BUT DRYING TREND COULD LAST FOR SEVERAL ADDITIONAL
DAYS GOING FORWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES HOLDING 96-100F
TODAY AND THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE U60S LIKELY AS
EFFECTIVE OVERNIGHT RECOVERY PERIODS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT. GENERALLY
STAYED CLOSE TO MAV MOS FOR HIGHS/LOWS BOTH DAYS. /40/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...OVERALL MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A "DIRTY" RIDGE LYING ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION
THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE STOUTER PORTION OF THE RIDGE
AND MORE-PRONOUNCED HEAT SHIFTED WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
ARKLATEX. WITH THE FORECAST LAST NIGHT I WAS VERY RELUCTANT TO
ACCEPT THE IDEA OF A PATTERN MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLING JUNE
CLIMATOLOGY HOLDING SWAY IN THE EXTENDED. TONIGHT I AM STILL A
LITTLE RELUCTANT TO DROP NOTIONS OF RETURNING DRYNESS AND EXTREME
HEAT TO MOST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...GFS MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT
AND OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN MODEL OUTPUT PRESENTS PRETTY STRONG
ARGUMENTS THAT I CANNOT IGNORE WITH THE LATEST LONG TERM FORECAST.

THUS...20 POPS WERE INCLUDED FOR MOST AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS
IN THE EXTENDED OVER THE EASTERN THREE-QUARTERS TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT MAINLY IN THE MID 90S THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH ANY UPPER 90S MAINLY INCLUDED IN FAR WESTERN ZONES
WHERE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BE LESS. MEXMOS
(GFS-BASED) TEMPS WERE STILL RAISED AT LEAST A LITTLE IN MANY AREAS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED...MAINLY IN AN EFFORT TO KEEP SOME
CONSISTENCY IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE GFS MEAN TEMPS ARE
MORE SOLIDLY IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS IN THE EXTENDED AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TEMPS MAY HAVE TO BE TRENDED FURTHER DOWNWARD IF
MODELS CAN BE CONSISTENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE OUTPUTS FOR ANOTHER
DAY. MEXMOS POPS WERE NOT LOWERED AT ALL IN THE EXTENDED...BUT IN
FACT RAISED SOME PERIODS TO KEEP MATCH EARLIER MENTIONED
EXPECTATIONS.

PULSE CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED MAY STILL BE VIGOROUS AT
TIMES CONSIDERING 500 MB TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE MUCH ABOVE
-10 CELSIUS...THUS CONSISTENTLY DELIVERING STEEPISH LAPSE RATES.
MOISTURE SHOULD BECOME GRADUALLY DEEPER THROUGH THE EXTENDED IN MOST
AREAS...LOWERING MICROBURST POTENTIAL A LITTLE FROM THE RECENT
EXTREME VALUES...BUT THE POTENTIAL WILL BY NO MEANS BE ZERO. WILL
NOT BE MENTIONING THIS RISK IN THE HWO YET...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO
KEEP IN MIND AT THIS POINT. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       94  69  94  69 /  47  20  19   4
MERIDIAN      95  65  95  65 /  25  11  13   7
VICKSBURG     94  68  93  67 /  56  20  22   3
HATTIESBURG   95  68  95  69 /  53  17  20   9
NATCHEZ       93  69  91  68 /  58  20  22   8
GREENVILLE    96  72  95  71 /  39  20  22   3
GREENWOOD     95  69  95  69 /  31  17  16   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

40/BB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
244 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

LAZ015-016-023>026-MSZ042>066-072>074-091945-
RICHLAND-MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-YAZOO-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
244 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...AND ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS UP TO
60 MPH...QUARTER-SIZED HAIL...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM RAYVILLE
LOUISIANA...TO YAZOO CITY...TO MACON THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW- LYING AREAS FROM
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR THESE
STORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 9PM AS DAYTIME HEATING COMBINES
WITH A VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ018-019-025>041-091945-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-
244 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS OF 50 MPH
AND HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 2PM TO 8PM THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH A VERY MOIST
UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE THE STORMS WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

28

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
224 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

MSZ073-074-081945-
FORREST MS-LAMAR MS-
224 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER HATTIESBURG AT 224 PM CDT...
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN LAMAR AND NORTHERN FORREST COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3138 8951 3144 8941 3143 8922 3132 8917
      3124 8941
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 155DEG 8KT 3134 8932

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
232 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

MSZ058-081950-
CLARKE MS-
232 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF CRANDALL AT 232
PM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN CLARKE COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3211 8845 3203 8845 3195 8846 3193 8846
      3190 8858 3212 8867 3218 8844 3211 8844
TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 159DEG 10KT 3202 8851

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
250 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     LIGHTNING        2 NE MCLAURIN           31.19N 89.19W
06/08/2011                   FORREST            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            41 SOLDIERS HAVE BEEN STRUCK BY LIGHTNING AT CAMP SHELBY.
            THEY HAVE BEEN TRANSPORTED TO A HOSPITAL IN
            HATTIESBURG...NO OTHER DETAILS ARE KNOWN AT THIS TIME.

&&

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
251 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

MSZ064-072-082020-
MARION MS-JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-
251 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF BUNKER HILL AT 251 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS AND NORTHERN MARION COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3135 8999 3148 8991 3150 8973 3125 8966
      3120 8983
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 163DEG 11KT 3133 8979

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
311 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

MSZ057-058-082040-
CLARKE MS-JASPER MS-
311 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF GOODWATER AT 311 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN JASPER AND SOUTHWESTERN CLARKE COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3183 8874 3182 8890 3182 8908 3200 8909
      3209 8891 3196 8867
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 115DEG 8KT 3189 8877

JA