Severe Thunderstorm Warning 425, NWS Jackson, MS

802 
WWUS54 KJAN 080111
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
811 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

MSC133-151-080130-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0425.000000T0000Z-110608T0130Z/
SUNFLOWER MS-WASHINGTON MS-
811 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND SOUTHWESTERN SUNFLOWER COUNTIES...

AT 811 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
WEST OF INVERNESS MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO HOLLY
RIDGE AND INDIANOLA

WINDS OF 60 MPH CAN BRING DOWN TREES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN INJURY
AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. ROOFS OF MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS COULD BE
DAMAGED...AND MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO WELL BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES
COULD OCCUR.

LAT...LON 3328 9058 3328 9072 3324 9074 3324 9079
      3348 9082 3349 9057
TIME...MOT...LOC 0111Z 176DEG 9KT 3337 9069

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
545 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
SHOWING A SWIRL AROUND AN MCV MOVING WEST NEAR THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA STATE LINE. THIS DISTURBANCE WAS COMBINING
WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PRIME DAYTIME HEATING TO SET
OFF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR THAT WILL SPREAD NORTH AS THEY TRACK WEST.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON REACHED THE CENTURY MARK AT HATTIESBURG
AND JACKSON THAT WAS HELPING FUEL THE CONVECTION. MODEL CONSENSUS
STILL POINTS TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA AS HAVING THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH ISOLATED IN THE NORTH.
LOCAL WET MICROBURST CHECKLISTS SHOWED FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER
SIZED HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
WHERE THE STORMS TRAIN SLOWLY TO THE WEST OVER THE SAME AREAS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING
AND SHOULD END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE LARGE MID LEVEL HIGH WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A COL JUST NORTHWEST
OF OUR CWA AND A WEAKENING OF ITS GRIP ON OUR CWA. THE TUTT OVER THE
WESTERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK EAST TO THE CENTRAL GULF
WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA DURING THE HEAT OF
THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST POPS BEING CARRIED IN THE SOUTH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. FLOW LOOKS TO
REMAIN LIGHT AGAIN SO SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. GUIDANCE CAME IN
CLOSE WITH HIGHS 93-95F AT MOST SITES. COME THURSDAY WL HAVE A
WEAKENED RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE CWA WITH THE TUTT AXIS IN THE GULF
SHIFTED FARTHER EAST INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
NOSE ACROSS THE GULF STATES FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO OUR CWA FROM THE EAST AND LIMIT
DEEP MOISTURE TO ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR. GUIDANCE CAME IN A LITTLE TOO COOL FOR
HIGHS THURSDAY. AM ANTICIPATING LESS CLOUD COVER AND A LITTLE BETTER
HEATING THAN THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
BE DIURNAL AND DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING. /22/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COMPOSITE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RIDGING WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATE FRIDAY AND ALSO
SUGGESTS UPPER RIDGING (MAINLY CENTERED TO OUR WEST)WILL LAST AT
LEAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

THE RESULT OF THESE GOINGS ON ALOFT WILL LIKELY CONFINE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN
BORDER OF THE CWA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD HEAT BACK UP THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH A RETURN TO SOME
SPORADIC 100 DEGREE READINGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY NEXT
WEEKEND. MEXMOS GUIDANCE IS NOT GOING NEAR THAT HOT...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT INCLUDE 100S YET...BUT I DID RAISE HIGHS
IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MEXMOS FORECAST LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DID NOT LOOK BAD CONSIDERING ATMOSPHERE
WILL DRY OUT AGAIN OVER THIS TIME PERIOD AND ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT
NIGHTTIME COOLING. DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WE COULD END UP WITH
CONDITIONS ON PAR WITH THE RECENT HEAT BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
POTENTIAL FOR OFFICIAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE MET THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK IS NOT LOOKING VERY HIGH AND WILL NOT MENTION RETURN
OF HEAT IN THE HWO AT THIS JUNCTURE.

MODEL CONSENSUS DOES GIVE SOME HOPE OF UPPER RIDGE BECOMING CENTERED
FAR ENOUGH WEST IN THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ALLOW BOUNDARIES
(AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION) TO EFFECTIVELY "BACK-DOOR" INTO THE
ARKLAMISS AFTER THE WEEKEND. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL WEATHER
REGIME WOULD DEFINITELY CUT THE HEAT BACK A LITTLE AGAIN AND
POSSIBLY RESULT IN MUCH BETTER OVERALL RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...I DO
NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CONSENSUS MODEL OUTPUT TAKING
DEVELOPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND RECENT PERSISTENCE INTO ACCOUNT.
FOR NOW I HAVE TAKEN THE TACT OF NOT RAISING GUIDANCE TEMPS TOO
MUCH (ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MS) AFTER SUNDAY AND INCLUDING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY (WHILE VIGOROUSLY CROSSING
FINGERS). /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN TRACKING CONVECTION
AND ISSUING UPDATES AHEAD OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR TAF SITES.
HOT TEMPS AND RELATIVELY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER HAS BEEN RESULTING IN
PARTICULARLY GUSTY STORMS...KMEI RECENTLY HAD A GUST TO 42 KT WITH
RELATIVELY BENIGN LOOKING CONVECTION FROM A RADAR PERSPECTIVE. LOOKS
AS IF CONVECTION HAS ENDED AT KMEI/KHBG BUT WILL CARRY FOR ANOTHER
HOUR OR SO AT KJAN. CONVECTION IS QUITE ISOLATED IN HWY 82 CORRIDOR
SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN ANY TAF SITES FOR NOW. OTHER THAN THE
CONVECTION ISSUES WILL BE DECREASING THE WIDESPREAD CI SHIELD ACROSS
THE S...AND THEN ANY LATE NIGHT BR/HZ. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOWER
LAYERS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST SO WILL NOT BE TOO AGGRESSIVE YET
ON VSBYS BUT DID LOWER KHBG TO MVFR GIVEN HEAVY RAIN EARLIER TODAY.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY CONVECTION IN TAFS FOR WED BUT LATER SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT THAT POTENTIAL CLOSELY.               /08/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  93  69  94 /  29  35  14  15
MERIDIAN      66  94  65  94 /  28  25  11  11
VICKSBURG     68  94  69  94 /  31  29  19  16
HATTIESBURG   70  94  68  94 /  30  36  16  14
NATCHEZ       68  93  69  92 /  36  29  17  16
GREENVILLE    70  96  70  96 /  16  20  11  16
GREENWOOD     68  95  69  95 /  12  19  11  16

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

22/BB/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
314 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ040>043-047>066-072>074-082015-
MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-
COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-
FORREST-
314 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
AS WELL AS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING MICROBURST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND QUARTER TO HALF-
DOLLAR-SIZED HAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE GREATEST
RISK WILL BE LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A QUITMAN TO JACKSON TO
BASTROP LINE BETWEEN THROUGH 10PM. TORRENTIAL RAINS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES IN QUICK BURSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE CAUSING ROADWAYS TO BE
VERY SLICK WITH PONDING OF WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

AN ISOLATED STRONG AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
WITH THE PRIMARY RISK BEING WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH...OTHERWISE THE
PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL BE LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE EVENING BUT OTHERWISE
IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025>039-044>046-082015-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-
HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
314 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS OF
50 TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER-SIZED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE-20 CORRIDOR.
TORRENTIAL RAINS OF ONE INCH IN QUICK BURSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
ROADWAYS WILL BECOME VERY SLICK ONCE WET AS LITTLE TO NO RAIN HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS TO REMOVE EXCESS OIL AND
SEDIMENTS ON ROADWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

AN ISOLATED STRONG AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
WITH THE PRIMARY RISK BEING WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH...OTHERWISE THE
PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL BE LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

28

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
643 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

LAZ007-080015-
MOREHOUSE LA-
643 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 13 MILES SOUTH OF JONES AT 644 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN MOREHOUSE PARISH SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3297 9177 3299 9150 3289 9150 3288 9153
      3286 9156 3280 9158 3279 9160 3276 9158
      3273 9162 3270 9162 3269 9170
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 174DEG 9KT 3279 9161

JA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
647 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TILTON                  31.41N 90.02W
06/07/2011                   LAWRENCE           MS   PUBLIC

            FEW TREES DOWN NEAR TILTON.

0540 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WSW RIDGELAND         32.41N 90.20W
06/07/2011                   HINDS              MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON LIVINGSTON RD.

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
656 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0329 PM     TSTM WND DMG     UTICA                   32.10N 90.62W
06/07/2011                   HINDS              MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A FEW TREES DOWN

&&

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
704 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

MSZ051-080035-
NEWTON MS-
704 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTH OF LITTLE ROCK AT 704 PM
CDT...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN NEWTON COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3239 8892 3238 8925 3258 8923 3258 8901
      3257 8891
TIME...MOT...LOC 0004Z 094DEG 9KT 3248 8902

JA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
706 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HILLSBORO               32.46N 89.51W
06/07/2011                   SCOTT              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LIGHT POLE SNAPPED AND TRANSFORMERS ON FIRE AT OLD
            HILLSBORO ROAD AND HILLSBORO VFW ROAD.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
729 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEARNED                 32.20N 90.55W
06/07/2011                   HINDS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWERLINES DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF OAK STREET AND
            BUSH ROAD.

&&

DCOX