Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1030 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

.UPDATE...GOT OFF TO ONLY A SLIGHTLY COOLER START THAN YESTERDAY
MORNING BUT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT
10AM. GREENVILLE AND JACKSON WERE BOTH 10 DEGREES COOLER AT 10AM
WITH MOST OTHER SITES AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER. LOOKING AT THE JAN
SOUNDING THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A LATER START TO CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A FEW CLOUDS OVER NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV THAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE CLOUDS AND A FEW STORMS WERE NOTED SOUTH OF
PENSACOLA ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE THAT THE MODELS TRACK
WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. THIS WAVE MAY
HELP INITIATE CONVECTION OVER OUR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL
WET MICROBURST CHECKLIST CAME IN WITH LOWER CHANCES TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY FOR MICROBURSTS BUT...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN HAVE A CHANCE OF PRODUCING GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND
QUARTER SIZED HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INITIATION MAY OCCUR
OVER OUR SOUTHEAST AGAIN BUT HIGH RES MODELS ARE SHOWING GREATEST
COVERAGE TODAY OVER OUR SOUTHWEST WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST. LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN OUR
NORTHEAST. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS MORNING WITH SKC AND
PERHAPS SOME HZ IN SPOTS. BROKEN CUMULUS 4-6K FEET BY 17-23Z WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITH THE NWD MOVING
SEA BREEZE FROM THE COAST AFTER 17Z. THERE COULD BE SCATTERED TSRA
COVERAGE 4-7PM BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS NUMEROUS AS TUESDAY. ANY STORMS
COULD EASILY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 50KTS...MAINLY IMPACTING
AREAS W OF HIGHWAY 49 UNTIL SUNSET. VFR SHOULD AGAIN DOMINATE FOR
THURSDAY AND THE FOLLOWING DAYS./28/40/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2011/

..ONE MORE DAY FOR BETTER RAIN CHANCES THEN DRIER AGAIN...

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WELCOME RAINS COVERED
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SRN MS INTO PORTIONS OF NERN LA ON TUESDAY AS
THE SEA BREEZE WAS ASSISTED BY THE WWD MOVING MCV ACROSS THE REGION.
MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED ONE HALF TO ONE INCH WITH HEAVIER SPOTS UP
TO TWO INCHES GENERALLY S OF I-20 WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WERE
MORE ROBUST. EARLY THIS MORNING...PWATS OF 1.6-1.9 INCHES WERE
POSITIONED ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUTT
CENTER NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER. FESTERING STORMS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS WERE EDGING NWWD HOWEVER...THE TUTT WILL BE CREEPING
EWD LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS PIVOTS WWD AND THEN
SWD BASED ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. WHILE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST...A FINAL DAY FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA SHOULD BE SEEN FOR ABOUT OUR SWRN 2/3 OF THE
CWFA STARTING 18-21Z AS THE SEA BREEZE PROGRESSES NWD.

AGAIN TODAY...ADDED CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN A RATHER SHORT
DURATION OF THE HOTTEST HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT GET KNOCKED DOWN BY
RAIN-COOLING STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA BUILD NWWD GOING
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING SO THAT HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE MS
RIVER COUNTIES/PARISHES 21Z-01Z. K INDEXES REACH 41 AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY AXIS GENERALLY W OF A HIGHWAY 49 AXIS UNTIL THE SUN
SETS. MORE TSRA BOUNDARY COLLISIONS SHOULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
MICROBURST POTENTIAL WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES COMMON.
ISOLATED STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OF
60MPH...FROM 20Z-01Z AS OUR LAST BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEK
OCCUR. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW
WHERE QUICK 1-2 INCH RAINS MOST PROBABLE ROUGHLY KHEZ-KTVR LOCATIONS.

SLOWLY DECREASING MOISTURE AXIS ON THURSDAY APPEARS TO LINGER OVER
THE WRN CWFA INCLUDING NERN LA/SERN AR BUT THE WEAKENING MID-UPPER
SHEAR AXIS PULLS SEWD AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE TUTT CIRCULATION
TURNS EWD INTO THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO AND RESULTS IN A WEAKER
OVERALL SEA BREEZE SET UP. WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA BUT DRYING TREND COULD LAST FOR SEVERAL ADDITIONAL
DAYS GOING FORWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES HOLDING 96-100F
TODAY AND THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE U60S LIKELY AS
EFFECTIVE OVERNIGHT RECOVERY PERIODS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT. GENERALLY
STAYED CLOSE TO MAV MOS FOR HIGHS/LOWS BOTH DAYS. /40/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...OVERALL MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A "DIRTY" RIDGE LYING ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION
THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE STOUTER PORTION OF THE RIDGE
AND MORE-PRONOUNCED HEAT SHIFTED WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
ARKLATEX. WITH THE FORECAST LAST NIGHT I WAS VERY RELUCTANT TO
ACCEPT THE IDEA OF A PATTERN MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLING JUNE
CLIMATOLOGY HOLDING SWAY IN THE EXTENDED. TONIGHT I AM STILL A
LITTLE RELUCTANT TO DROP NOTIONS OF RETURNING DRYNESS AND EXTREME
HEAT TO MOST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...GFS MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT
AND OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN MODEL OUTPUT PRESENTS PRETTY STRONG
ARGUMENTS THAT I CANNOT IGNORE WITH THE LATEST LONG TERM FORECAST.

THUS...20 POPS WERE INCLUDED FOR MOST AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS
IN THE EXTENDED OVER THE EASTERN THREE-QUARTERS TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT MAINLY IN THE MID 90S THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH ANY UPPER 90S MAINLY INCLUDED IN FAR WESTERN ZONES
WHERE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BE LESS. MEXMOS
(GFS-BASED) TEMPS WERE STILL RAISED AT LEAST A LITTLE IN MANY AREAS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED...MAINLY IN AN EFFORT TO KEEP SOME
CONSISTENCY IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE GFS MEAN TEMPS ARE
MORE SOLIDLY IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS IN THE EXTENDED AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TEMPS MAY HAVE TO BE TRENDED FURTHER DOWNWARD IF
MODELS CAN BE CONSISTENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE OUTPUTS FOR ANOTHER
DAY. MEXMOS POPS WERE NOT LOWERED AT ALL IN THE EXTENDED...BUT IN
FACT RAISED SOME PERIODS TO KEEP MATCH EARLIER MENTIONED
EXPECTATIONS.

PULSE CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED MAY STILL BE VIGOROUS AT
TIMES CONSIDERING 500 MB TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE MUCH ABOVE
-10 CELSIUS...THUS CONSISTENTLY DELIVERING STEEPISH LAPSE RATES.
MOISTURE SHOULD BECOME GRADUALLY DEEPER THROUGH THE EXTENDED IN MOST
AREAS...LOWERING MICROBURST POTENTIAL A LITTLE FROM THE RECENT
EXTREME VALUES...BUT THE POTENTIAL WILL BY NO MEANS BE ZERO. WILL
NOT BE MENTIONING THIS RISK IN THE HWO YET...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO
KEEP IN MIND AT THIS POINT. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       94  69  94  69 /  47  20  19   4
MERIDIAN      95  65  95  65 /  25  11  13   7
VICKSBURG     94  68  93  67 /  56  20  22   3
HATTIESBURG   95  68  95  69 /  53  17  20   9
NATCHEZ       93  69  91  68 /  58  20  22   8
GREENVILLE    96  72  95  71 /  39  20  22   3
GREENWOOD     95  69  95  69 /  31  17  16   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

40/BB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
451 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ040>043-047>066-072>074-
091000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-ISSAQUENA-
SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
451 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...AND ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS UP
TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER-SIZED HAIL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM FOUNTAIN HILL ARKANSAS TO CANTON
MISSISSIPPI TO MERIDIAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE
BETWEEN 1PM TO 9PM AS DAYTIME HEATING COMBINES WITH A VERY MOIST
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL BE LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

MSZ018-019-025>039-044>046-091000-
BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-
LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-
WINSTON-NOXUBEE-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
451 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS
OF 50 TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER-SIZED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 2PM
TO 8PM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH
A VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE THE STORMS WHICH SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL BE LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

40

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1111 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             2 NW GOODWILL           32.80N 91.58W
06/07/2011  E1.00 INCH       MOREHOUSE          LA   PUBLIC

            HAILED FOR 10-15 MINUTES.

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1135 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W INVERNESS           33.35N 90.68W
06/07/2011                   SUNFLOWER          MS   PUBLIC

            SHINGLES WERE PEALED OFF A ROOF AND LAWN FURNITURE WAS
            BLOWN ACROSS THE YARD...DIME HAIL ALSO OCCURRED.

&&

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1139 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

MSZ051-057-081720-
JASPER MS-NEWTON MS-
1139 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROSE HILL AT
1139 AM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE AT ANY TIME.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWTON AND NORTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3214 8910 3237 8920 3242 8894 3214 8891
TIME...MOT...LOC 1639Z 168DEG 11KT 3220 8903

JC