Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
324 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

.SHORT TERM...VOLATILE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER
ECNTRL/SERN ZONES. 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 200-300
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KTS AT
MANY LOCATIONS. STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE PERSISTS AS A POTENT UPPER
JET PUNCHES INTO THE AREA. AFTERNOON HEATING HAS INTENSIFIED
INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE CAPE VALUES GENERALLY FROM
1500-3000...EXCEEDING 3000 OVER A LARGE PORTION OF SRN MS. THE DEEP
UPPER LOW PIVOTING OUT FROM THE SRN PLAINS HAS PROVIDED BROAD UPPER
ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA THAT HAS PROVIDED ADDITIONAL UPPER SUPPORT TO
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT HIGH REZ MODEL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT SUPERCELLULAR STORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST AHEAD
OF THE DRY LINE...WHICH WAS ROUGHLY LOCATED FROM NATCHEZ TO JACKSON
TO STARKVILLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. A SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE MOVING
AROUND THE LARGER SYSTEM SERVED TO SLOW THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE
DRYLINE EARLIER TODAY BUT THIS FEATURE HAS EXITED THE AREA AND THE
DRYLINE SHOULD BEGIN TO SPEED UP A BIT. GENERAL LARGE SCALE MODEL
AGREEMENT IS THAT THE DRY LINE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED FROM NE MS TO
SCNTRL ZONES BY 00Z AND SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER. IN THE
MEANTIME STRONG DAMAGING TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF TIGHT SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. SUPERCELLS... WHICH
WILL BE SCATTERED AHEAD OF THIS LINE... WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE
OF DAMAGING TORNADOES. THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE FROM THE WEST AS THE DRYLINE EDGES EWD...THE RISK OF ALL
TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER PERSISTING OVER EXTREME ECNTRL/SERN ZONES
THROUGH 8 OR 9 PM.

THE AIR MASS DRIES AND STABILIZES QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
DRYLINE. WLY WIND WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH HEALTHY COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS
HUMID FOR SATURDAY. AFTERNOON SURFACE OBS TODAY INDICATE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S TO OUR W/NW WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER TEMPS FORECAST AT 925/850 MBS HERE TOMORROW. WILL SEE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND HAVE CUT MAV MOS
HIGHS SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL DROP
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT...DELAYING THE EXIT OF THE
TROUGH UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINTAINING AREAS OF
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY OVER NRN AND ECNTRL ZONES...INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGING BEGINS TO REBUILD LATER TOMORROW WITH A
SURFACE HIGH CENTER POSITIONED OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. SLY LOW
FLOW RETURNS LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND
SUNDAY BUT THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY. THE SRN FRINGES OF AN UPPER
WAVE MOVIE ACROSS NRN MS SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
SYNOPTIC LIFT...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED AND THE FORECAST
WILL REMAIN DRY. /03/

.LONG TERM...A FLATTER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS SHOULD
KEEP STORM SYSTEM MOVING RIGHT ALONG FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE
HIGH(1020MB) OVER AL EARLY SUNDAY WILL MOVE OFF SRN GA COAST BY
MONDAY ALLOWING ANOTHER QUICK RETURN FLOW PATTERN TO SET UP STARTING
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL BE RACING THROUGH THE FLOW IN THE
CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS. IN RESPONSE...DEEP MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVER OUR CWFA PROBABLY IN ABOUT 2 TO 3 DAY INTERVALS...THE FIRST
BEING ON TUESDAY...THEN THURSDAY AND FINALLY SATURDAY. THE POSITION
OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE MID SOUTH OR GULF
STATES WILL BE KEY TO FOCUSING RAINFALL DURING THE WEEK.  MODEL
CONSENSUS MOVES A PLAINS LOW ACROSS THE OZARKS HEADING NEWD TUESDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
IT STALLS OUT. THE STALLING FRONT GETS STUCK UNDER PREVAILING SWLY
FLOW ALOFT SO UNCERTAINTY IN THESE FEATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
ANY QPF SHOULD INITIALLY BE UNDER ONE INCH BEFORE MID WEEK HOWEVER
PATTERN SUGGESTS A HEAVY RAINFALL EPISODE COULD BE SETTING UP FOR
THE TN VALLEY/MID SOUTH OR GULF STATES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /40/

&&

.AVIATION...DANGEROUS FLYING CONDS XPCTD THRU THE DAY TODAY AS A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS
WILL PERSIST THRU THE DAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS
INVOF OF JAN/GTR/HBG/MEI. MOD TO SEVERE TURBULENCE...GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL BE PSBL ACROSS THESE AREAS. MVFR/OCSNL VFR
CIG XPCTD TO ACCOMPANY THE SEVERE WEATHER ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH SFC
WINDS...PEAKING IN THE 20-30KT RANGE. STORMS WILL PUSH EAST INTO AL
THIS EVENING...WITH A SHIFT TO WESTERLY WINDS XPCTD BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION. SKIES WILL BE VFR...GENERALLY
CLEAR...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN DECKS AROUND
4K FT POSSIBLE IN THE NW. /BK/03/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       46  69  42  77 /  28   8   8   6
MERIDIAN      45  70  40  78 /  48   8   9   6
VICKSBURG     47  69  40  78 /  11   8   6   6
HATTIESBURG   50  75  44  79 /  39   8   5   6
NATCHEZ       46  67  39  75 /  13   5   4   6
GREENVILLE    47  65  42  77 /   9   8   6   6
GREENWOOD     46  65  40  77 /  11   8   7   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

03/40/BK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
421 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>028-034>036-
040>042-047-160930-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-
HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-WARREN-
421 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CROSSING LOCATIONS WEST OF A
LINE FROM TALLULAH LOUISIANA TO WINONA MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING.
INITIALLY... THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS OF 70 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS. THIS
LINE SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK UP DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS WITH A
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUING AND INCLUDING TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS OF 75 MPH...AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS POSSIBLE. THE
MAIN RISK SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS AND
END COMPLETELY BEFORE MID AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS BUT
SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED AFTER ABOUT 3 PM.

MSZ029>033-037>039-043>046-048>066-072>074-160930-
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
421 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND EAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING SHOULD BEGIN BREAKING UP ROUGHLY ALONG THE NATCHEZ TRACE
PARKWAY CORRIDOR BEFORE NOONTIME. THEN...SCATTERED SEVERE SUPERCELLS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
ESPECIALLY IMPACTING EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. AT THIS
POINT...THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED RISK OF TORNADOES...WHICH COULD BE
STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS TO 80 MPH... AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
BASEBALLS. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM NOON TO
800 PM.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF
THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

40

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
320 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0223 PM     TORNADO          POSSUMNECK              33.14N 89.74W
04/15/2011                   ATTALA             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 2 INJ *** COUNTY SHERIFF DEPUTY REPORTS TORNADO ON
            THE GROUND...UPDATE...HOMES DAMAGED IN AREA...1 MOBILE
            HOME DESTROYED

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
323 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             8 ENE BAY SPRINGS       32.02N 89.16W
04/15/2011  E1.75 INCH       JASPER             MS   AIRPLANE PILOT

            REPORTED BY MHP OFFICER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
338 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 PM     HAIL             MCCOOL                  33.20N 89.34W
04/15/2011  E1.00 INCH       ATTALA             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
353 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             CLINTON                 32.34N 90.33W
04/15/2011  E1.00 INCH       HINDS              MS   PUBLIC

            QUARTER HAIL REPORTED.

&&

JF/DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
403 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND GST     MARION                  32.43N 88.65W
04/15/2011  E65 MPH          LAUDERDALE         MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0325 PM     HAIL             MARION                  32.43N 88.65W
04/15/2011  E1.75 INCH       LAUDERDALE         MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
419 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             5 W QUITMAN             32.04N 88.81W
04/15/2011  E1.75 INCH       CLARKE             MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

0405 PM     HAIL             1 S RUTH                31.37N 90.32W
04/15/2011  E1.75 INCH       LINCOLN            MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&