Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1015 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS MORNING AND TO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OF THE
FOURTH OF JULY. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER BEFORE
MORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. FINALLY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE POPS AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THIS MORNING.

MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS KENTUCKY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEY ALSO SUGGEST WE COULD
SEE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AROUND THE RING OF FIRE WITH ANY
IMPULSE AND MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS THE UPPER RIDGE
ALSO MIGRATES SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
STATES.

PLENTY OF REMAINING INSTABILITY TODAY FOR THE MAIN BOUNDARY...LEFT
OVER CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES OR IMPULSES TO WORK WITH AS MODELS AGREE
ON MIXED LAYER CAPES ABOVE 1500 J/JG AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPES ABOVE
2500 J/KG THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

SATELLITE AND NATIONAL RADAR LOOPS WERE SHOWING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF KANSAS EARLY THIS AM...AND MODELS SUGGEST
THESE MAY REGENERATE ROSS MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...SO WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS THERE AND TAPER OFF TO
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

NOT SURE IF WE CAN MAKE IT TO SIMILAR MOS TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
80S FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 90S FAR SOUTH WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS KEEPING TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW
MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FOURTH OF JULY NIGHT/...

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT OF
POPS AS COLD FRONT SETTLES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THE FOURTH
OF JULY.

MODELS AGREE ON RETROGRADING THE UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE ROCKIES ON THE FOURTH AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON QPF...BUT THINK THE
BEST ROUTE IS FOR SMALL POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THE FOURTH BEING CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONT AND SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE RING OF FIRE. BY MONDAY NIGHT...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DONE EVEN
THERE AS THE COLUMN DRIES AND CONSEQUENTLY THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
STABLE.

MOS TEMPERATURES WERE PRETTY CLOSE AND WITH CLOUD COVER FROM
CONVECTION SOMEWHAT UP THERE AIR...BLEND SEEMS THE BEST WAY TO
GO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE EJECTING INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THE LOW
WILL TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST AND BECOME ABSORBED BY A STRONGER LOW OVER
ONTARIO BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL HELP TO DRAG THE FRONT BACK SOUTH AS A
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUING TO SHOW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ALOFT WITH THE FRONT...WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUCKLE THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHWEST U S. THIS WILL ENABLE THE
FRONT TO PRESS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY...WITH A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE GREAT
LAKES. A PREDOMINANT E/NE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A DRIER AND MUCH LESS
HUMID AIRMASS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST BEGINNING
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION.../DISCUSSION FOR THE 031500Z TAF UPDATE/...

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AS LEFTOVER MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. SHOULD SEE SOME
THINNING OF THE CLOUDS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE MORE
EXPANSIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS FROM STORMS OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI
ARRIVES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS 12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TODAY. BRIEF MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH ANY TSRA THAT STRIKES A TAF SITE.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST HAS PUSHED THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ON SATELLITE ARE EXPECTED TO
DIURNALLY FALL APART THIS MORNING RESULTING IN SOME HIGH CIRRUS
CEILINGS INITIALLY. CU RULE IS NEGATIVE TODAY BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES THAT IN THE 90S THAT
MAY BE HARD TO REACH. THUS HAVE JUST INCLUDED A FEW HIGH CU DURING
THE MAX HEATING HOURS.

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A S/W IN THE UPPER FLOW PUSHING INTO INDIANA
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT TO USE PRECISE
TIMING ON ANY TSRA DEVELOPMENT BUT WILL USE CB MENTION FOR NOW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JP/RYAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
339 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

INZ028-035-036-043>047-041000-
WARREN-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-VERMILLION-PARKE-PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-
MARION-
339 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...BUT DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ053>057-060>065-067>072-041000-
OWEN-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-
BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
339 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...BUT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ021-029>031-037>042-048-049-041000-
CARROLL-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-
DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-HANCOCK-HENRY-
339 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS...SMALL
HAIL...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...BUT DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ051-052-041000-
VIGO-CLAY-
339 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...BUT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

KOCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
919 AM EDT SUN JUL 03 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 E VINCENNES           38.68N 87.44W
07/03/2011                   KNOX               IN   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SEVERAL TREE LIMBS DOWN AND A TRAMPOLINE WRAPPED AROUND A
            TREE AND FENCE. DAMAGE LIKELY FROM WINDS NEAR 45 TO 50
            MPH.

&&

ABAKER

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