Severe Thunderstorm Warning 258, NWS Indianapolis, IN

221 
WWUS53 KIND 030247
SVSIND

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1047 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

INC045-121-165-030300-
/O.CON.KIND.SV.W.0258.000000T0000Z-110703T0300Z/
FOUNTAIN-PARKE-VERMILLION-
1047 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
FOUNTAIN...NORTHERN PARKE AND NORTHERN VERMILLION COUNTIES UNTIL 1100
PM EDT...

AT 1045 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES
SOUTH OF VEEDERSBURG...OR 21 MILES WEST OF CRAWFORDSVILLE...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TURKEY RUN STATE PARK AROUND 1055 PM EDT...
  WALLACE AROUND 1100 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4003 8744 4004 8718 4003 8709 3984 8710
      3991 8754
TIME...MOT...LOC 0248Z 273DEG 17KT 3999 8726
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$
JH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
938 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY BRINGING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA. STORM
CHANCES WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EXPANDS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR MIDWEEK WITH ADDITIONAL
STORM CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR SPREADING INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES AT THIS
TIME AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LOSS OF HEATING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VERY WEAK...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP. AS A
RESULT...THREAT CONTINUES FOR A FEW PULSE TYPE SEVERE STORMS FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS. ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO BACKBUILD WITH TIME TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST GIVEN 15-20KT FLOW AT 850MB. BASED ON ABOVE
THINKING...WILL RAISE POPS A LITTLE MORE OVER THE NORTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH ABOUT 030600Z.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT GOING LOWS TONIGHT...SO NO CHANGES
NEEDED THERE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES
AND TEMPS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. PREFER A MODEL CONSENSUS LED BY THE SREF AND ECMWF THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.

FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING
AND WILL TAKE THE DAY TO PROGRESS SOUTH INTO KENTUCKY AS RIDGING
ALOFT RETROGRADES BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH RENEWED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA. STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HEAVILY RELIANT ON
INSTABILITY FROM DIURNAL HEATING AS FORCING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY REMAINS PALTRY. MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY WILL GENERATE
PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT SLIDES SOUTH TOWARDS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY BY SUNDAY EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST 30 POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH LOWER CHANCES ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND N/NE FLOW WILL BRING DRIER
AIR SOUTH INTO NORTHERN FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON.

THE HIGH WILL SPREAD SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SHIFTS INTO
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF AN MCS OVER THE
MISSOURI VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING...SPREADING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. OP GFS LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN TAKING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN ALL OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE HIGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD BRING ENOUGH DRY AIR SOUTH INTO THE REGION TO
KEEP THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY MONDAY. HAVE BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER A BIT OVER SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND MAINTAINED JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

FAIR AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ALOFT BROUGHT INTO THE
REGION MONDAY AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS FROM ANY CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST MAY
KEEP MORE CLOUDS INITIALLY...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARDS
DECREASING CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION.

TEMPS...THOUGHT MAVMOS GUIDANCE WAS A LITTLE WARM FOR SUNDAY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
REGARDLESS...TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES
NEAR 100 DEGREES OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WENT NEAR MAVMOS GUIDANCE
FOR MONDAY. MOS LOOKED REASONABLE FOR LOWS SUNDAY/MONDAY NIGHTS AS
TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE EJECTING INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THE LOW
WILL TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST AND BECOME ABSORBED BY A STRONGER LOW OVER
ONTARIO BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL HELP TO DRAG THE FRONT BACK SOUTH AS A
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUING TO SHOW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ALOFT WITH THE FRONT...WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUCKLE THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHWEST U S. THIS WILL ENABLE THE
FRONT TO PRESS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY...WITH A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE GREAT
LAKES. A PREDOMINANT E/NE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A DRIER AND MUCH LESS
HUMID AIRMASS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST BEGINNING
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/00Z TAFS/...

COLD FRONT NEAR A KSBN-KSPI LINE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA OVERNIGHT.  CURRENTLY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS INDICATES
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP OVER EAST CENTRAL TO NEAR KLAF
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS CAPES NEAR 5000-6000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX
VALUES NEAR -10. WITH STORMS DEVELOPING WEST OF KLAF WILL MENTION
TEMPO THUNDERSTORMS KLAF FIRST TWO HOURS OF TAFS.

QUESTION IS HOW FAR STORMS WILL CONTINUE AS THEY PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS REST OF THE REGION AS SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP.
RAPID REFRESH SHOWS VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY AFTER 05Z AND CONFIDENCE OF
THUNDER MUCH LESS THE REST OF OUR REGION.  FOR NOW WILL MENTION A
FEW HOURS OF CB IN TAFS KIND AND KHUF 02Z-05Z AND NOTHING AT KBMG AS
CONFIDENCE EVEN LESS THERE.

AS WEAK FRONT SINKS ACROSS THE AREA...WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING MAY
HELP DEVELOP FOG AND SOME STRATUS AS LOWER LAYERS QUITE MOIST. FOR
NOW WILL MENTION 3-5 MILES VISIBILITIES AND SCT025.

ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS...BUT AT TIME CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

NO WIND ISSUES OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
354 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051-052-031000-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-
354 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL. TIMING FOR THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE FROM 6 PM
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS...MAXIMUM
HEAT INDICES FROM THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 105 DEGREES ARE LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE...BUT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ053>057-060>065-067>072-031000-
OWEN-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-
BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
354 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. TIMING FOR THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE FROM 8 PM THROUGH 2 AM.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS...MAXIMUM
HEAT INDICES FROM THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 105 DEGREES ARE LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN EARLY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
ON THE FOURTH OF JULY SOUTH AND WEST OF BLOOMINGTON. THE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...BUT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

RYAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
711 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

INZ028-030000-
WARREN-
711 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY UNTIL 800
PM EDT...

AT 708 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HOOPESTON...OR 18 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF FOWLER...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
TAB AROUND 720 PM EDT...
RAINSVILLE AROUND 740 PM EDT...
PINE VILLAGE AROUND 750 PM EDT...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 4048 8753 4048 8752 4048 8710 4047 8709
      4036 8710 4034 8714 4033 8719 4033 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 263DEG 20KT 4043 8754

JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
951 PM EDT SAT JUL 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0944 PM     HAIL             4 ENE BATTLE GROUND     40.53N 86.77W
07/02/2011  E0.75 INCH       TIPPECANOE         IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN AMERICUS INDIANA.

&&

ABAKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1006 PM EDT SAT JUL 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     HAIL             4 ENE BATTLE GROUND     40.53N 86.77W
07/02/2011  E0.50 INCH       TIPPECANOE         IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MARBLE SIZE HAIL AND ESTIMATED 40 MPH WIND GUST IN
            AMERICUS INDIANA.

&&

ABAKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1007 PM EDT SAT JUL 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0918 PM     HAIL             BATTLE GROUND           40.51N 86.84W
07/02/2011  E0.25 INCH       TIPPECANOE         IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ABAKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1017 PM EDT SAT JUL 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1013 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SSW ATTICA            40.25N 87.27W
07/02/2011  M0.81 INCH       FOUNTAIN           IN   COCORAHS

            0.81 INCH OF RAIN MEASURED IN LAST HOUR.

&&

ABAKER