Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
938 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY BRINGING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA. STORM
CHANCES WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EXPANDS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR MIDWEEK WITH ADDITIONAL
STORM CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR SPREADING INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES AT THIS
TIME AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LOSS OF HEATING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VERY WEAK...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP. AS A
RESULT...THREAT CONTINUES FOR A FEW PULSE TYPE SEVERE STORMS FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS. ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO BACKBUILD WITH TIME TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST GIVEN 15-20KT FLOW AT 850MB. BASED ON ABOVE
THINKING...WILL RAISE POPS A LITTLE MORE OVER THE NORTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH ABOUT 030600Z.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT GOING LOWS TONIGHT...SO NO CHANGES
NEEDED THERE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES
AND TEMPS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. PREFER A MODEL CONSENSUS LED BY THE SREF AND ECMWF THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.

FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING
AND WILL TAKE THE DAY TO PROGRESS SOUTH INTO KENTUCKY AS RIDGING
ALOFT RETROGRADES BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH RENEWED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA. STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HEAVILY RELIANT ON
INSTABILITY FROM DIURNAL HEATING AS FORCING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY REMAINS PALTRY. MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY WILL GENERATE
PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT SLIDES SOUTH TOWARDS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY BY SUNDAY EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST 30 POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH LOWER CHANCES ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND N/NE FLOW WILL BRING DRIER
AIR SOUTH INTO NORTHERN FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON.

THE HIGH WILL SPREAD SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SHIFTS INTO
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF AN MCS OVER THE
MISSOURI VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING...SPREADING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. OP GFS LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN TAKING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN ALL OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE HIGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD BRING ENOUGH DRY AIR SOUTH INTO THE REGION TO
KEEP THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY MONDAY. HAVE BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER A BIT OVER SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND MAINTAINED JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

FAIR AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ALOFT BROUGHT INTO THE
REGION MONDAY AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS FROM ANY CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST MAY
KEEP MORE CLOUDS INITIALLY...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARDS
DECREASING CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION.

TEMPS...THOUGHT MAVMOS GUIDANCE WAS A LITTLE WARM FOR SUNDAY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
REGARDLESS...TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES
NEAR 100 DEGREES OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WENT NEAR MAVMOS GUIDANCE
FOR MONDAY. MOS LOOKED REASONABLE FOR LOWS SUNDAY/MONDAY NIGHTS AS
TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE EJECTING INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THE LOW
WILL TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST AND BECOME ABSORBED BY A STRONGER LOW OVER
ONTARIO BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL HELP TO DRAG THE FRONT BACK SOUTH AS A
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUING TO SHOW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ALOFT WITH THE FRONT...WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUCKLE THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHWEST U S. THIS WILL ENABLE THE
FRONT TO PRESS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY...WITH A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE GREAT
LAKES. A PREDOMINANT E/NE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A DRIER AND MUCH LESS
HUMID AIRMASS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST BEGINNING
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/00Z TAFS/...

COLD FRONT NEAR A KSBN-KSPI LINE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA OVERNIGHT.  CURRENTLY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS INDICATES
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP OVER EAST CENTRAL TO NEAR KLAF
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS CAPES NEAR 5000-6000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX
VALUES NEAR -10. WITH STORMS DEVELOPING WEST OF KLAF WILL MENTION
TEMPO THUNDERSTORMS KLAF FIRST TWO HOURS OF TAFS.

QUESTION IS HOW FAR STORMS WILL CONTINUE AS THEY PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS REST OF THE REGION AS SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP.
RAPID REFRESH SHOWS VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY AFTER 05Z AND CONFIDENCE OF
THUNDER MUCH LESS THE REST OF OUR REGION.  FOR NOW WILL MENTION A
FEW HOURS OF CB IN TAFS KIND AND KHUF 02Z-05Z AND NOTHING AT KBMG AS
CONFIDENCE EVEN LESS THERE.

AS WEAK FRONT SINKS ACROSS THE AREA...WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING MAY
HELP DEVELOP FOG AND SOME STRATUS AS LOWER LAYERS QUITE MOIST. FOR
NOW WILL MENTION 3-5 MILES VISIBILITIES AND SCT025.

ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS...BUT AT TIME CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

NO WIND ISSUES OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

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