Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
642 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A LINGERING WARM FRONT OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
TODAY THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER AND VERY HUMID AIR
TO SURGE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PROVIDE AMPLE
MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD IN ACROSS INDIANA ON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINGING A RETURN
TO DRY AND COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POPS. SINCE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
APPEARS TO MESH WELL WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS WILL USE A BLEND FOR
TODAY.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE WAS HINTING AT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FORMING
VERY EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY ORIENTED NW-SE...FROM
ROUGHLY VERMILLION COUNTY EXTENDING DOWN INTO LAWRENCE. SURE ENOUGH
THIS HAS COME TO FRUITION IN THE LAST HOUR AND A CORE ON ONE OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS GROWN TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HAIL THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS PER A RECENT REPORT.

AS RAPID REFRESH AND OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES...THIS LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH 12Z THIS
MORNING...POTENTIALLY PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL IN SOME OF THE
STRONGER TSTMS. LATER THIS MORNING...AN MCS WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER
ERN IOWA (ABOUT TO ENTER WRN IL) SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
INDIANA THROUGH 18Z TODAY...BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO
THE AREA.

IN TERMS OF POPS FOR TODAY...WENT LIKELY THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING
WHERE THE LINE CURRENTLY IS AND WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FOR THE 12-18Z TIMEFRAME PAINTED IN LIKELY
POPS AROUND AND NORTH OF I-70 WITH LOWER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. BY
THIS AFTERNOON WE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED THAT WENT ISOLATED
FOR MOST AREAS. SPC HAS ONCE AGAIN PLACE OUR CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SVR...CONSIDERING THE AMPLE INSTABILITY...WITH THE MAIN THREATS
BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

USED A MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY AND CUT BACK ON TEMPS ACROSS THE
NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS MOVING ACROSS HERE
EARLY IN THE DAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S N TO NEAR 90 S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PATTERN OVERALL SO WILL USE A
BLEND THIS PERIOD TOO. STRONGER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA BY TONIGHT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW OUR
ATMOSPHERE WELL CAPPED. DRY WX AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE IN STORE
FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 70.

RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND HIGH INSTABILITY
RETURNS. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN FOR CHANCES OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE. PER SPC/S SEVERE
WEATHER OUTLOOK...SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...DAYTIME HEATING WILL
STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS A BROAD AND UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR SUCH THAT INHIBITION WILL BECOME NEGLIGIBLE. AS A RESULT...
ISOLATED-SCT THUNDERSTORMS MAY SEEMINGLY DEVELOP WITHIN A SOMEWHAT
CHAOTIC OR RANDOM FASHION IN AREAS WELL AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. EVEN
SO...DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND
ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

USED A MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN AND WILL USE A BLEND. WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE
IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS ON
WEDNESDAY...THUS WILL KEEP TSRA MENTIONS AT THAT TIME AND CONTINUE
CHANCES INTO THURSDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN ON THURSDAY
WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME INSTABILITY
SHOWERS.

COOLER AND DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BUILD ACROSS INDIANA FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY AS LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURES SLOWLY
DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT. MEXMOS
POPS LOOK TOO HIGH AS THEY ARE LEANING TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY TOO MUCH
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR GIVEN THIS PATTERN. THUS WILL KEEP A DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 201200Z TAFS/...

AS ONE AREA OF TSRA CURRENTLY OVER THE KIND AND KLAF AREAS SHIFTS
NORTHEAST...A LINE OF STORMS ACROSS ILLINOIS WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE
AREA AFTER 12Z. AT THE MOMENT IT APPEARS THAT THIS LINE WILL IMPACT
KLAF AND BRUSH KIND. THUS HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS THERE THIS
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR KIND...BUT ERRED ON SIDE OF CAUTION.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT KBMG AND KHUF MIGHT BE SPARED ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL ONLY GO WITH A CB MENTION THERE.

TSRA THREAT WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN. OVERNIGHT LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT RAIN SHOULD LEAD TO AT
LEAST MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...PUMA/SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
254 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-210700-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
254 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS...IN ADDITION TO
LIGHTNING WHICH IS A HAZARD WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. LOCALIZED
FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN ANY OF THE SLOWER MOVING THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AS THE MAIN
THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN WITH ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR
FLOODING REPORTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

SMF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
406 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0401 AM     HAIL             MARTINSVILLE            39.42N 86.42W
06/20/2011  E0.88 INCH       MORGAN             IN   PUBLIC

&&

SMFLECHT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
420 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0419 AM     HAIL             2 S GREENWOOD           39.59N 86.11W
06/20/2011  E1.00 INCH       JOHNSON            IN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SMFLECHT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
430 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 AM     HAIL             MOORESVILLE             39.62N 86.37W
06/20/2011  E0.88 INCH       MORGAN             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SMFLECHT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
544 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 AM     HAIL             INDIANA STATE FAIRGROUN 39.83N 86.13W
06/20/2011  E0.88 INCH       MARION             IN   PUBLIC

&&

SMFLECHT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
546 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 AM     HAIL             INDIANAPOLIS            39.78N 86.15W
06/20/2011  E1.00 INCH       MARION             IN   PUBLIC

&&

SMFLECHT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
746 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

INZ037-039-047-048-201230-
BOONE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-MARION-
746 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BOONE...HAMILTON...
NORTHERN HANCOCK AND NORTHEASTERN MARION COUNTIES UNTIL 830 AM EDT...

AT 744 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAWRENCE...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF
INDIANAPOLIS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...
ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
MCCORDSVILLE AROUND 800 AM EDT...
FORTVILLE AROUND 830 AM EDT...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4003 8586 3995 8587 3994 8578 3983 8566
      3975 8603 4010 8635 4022 8618 4022 8604
TIME...MOT...LOC 1146Z 241DEG 7KT 3987 8595

PUMA