Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
247 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A LINGERING WARM FRONT OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
TODAY THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER AND VERY HUMID AIR
TO SURGE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PROVIDE AMPLE
MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD IN ACROSS INDIANA ON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINGING A RETURN
TO DRY AND COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POPS. SINCE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
APPEARS TO MESH WELL WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS WILL USE A BLEND FOR
TODAY.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE WAS HINTING AT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FORMING
VERY EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY ORIENTED NW-SE...FROM
ROUGHLY VERMILLION COUNTY EXTENDING DOWN INTO LAWRENCE. SURE ENOUGH
THIS HAS COME TO FRUITION IN THE LAST HOUR AND A CORE ON ONE OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS GROWN TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HAIL THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS PER A RECENT REPORT.

AS RAPID REFRESH AND OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES...THIS LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH 12Z THIS
MORNING...POTENTIALLY PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL IN SOME OF THE
STRONGER TSTMS. LATER THIS MORNING...AN MCS WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER
ERN IOWA (ABOUT TO ENTER WRN IL) SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
INDIANA THROUGH 18Z TODAY...BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO
THE AREA.

IN TERMS OF POPS FOR TODAY...WENT LIKELY THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING
WHERE THE LINE CURERNTLY IS AND WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FOR THE 12-18Z TIMEFRAME PAINTED IN LIKELY
POPS AROUND AND NORTH OF I-70 WITH LOWER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. BY
THIS AFTERNOON WE SHOULD BE SUFFIENTLY CAPPED THAT WENT ISOLATED FOR
MOST AREAS. SPC HAS ONCE AGAIN PLACE OUR CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SVR...CONSIDERING THE AMPLE INSTABILITY...WITH THE MAIN THREATS
BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

USED A MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY AND CUT BACK ON TEMPS ACROSS THE
NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS MOVING ACROSS HERE
EARLY IN THE DAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S N TO NEAR 90 S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PATTERN OVERALL SO WILL USE A
BLEND THIS PERIOD TOO. STRONGER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA BY TONIGHT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW OUR
ATMOSPHERE WELL CAPPED. DRY WX AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE IN STORE
FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 70.

RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND HIGH INSTABILITY
RETURNS. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN FOR CHANCES OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE. PER SPC/S SEVERE
WEATHER OUTLOOK...SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...DAYTIME HEATING WILL
STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS A BROAD AND UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR SUCH THAT INHIBITION WILL BECOME NEGLIGIBLE. AS A RESULT
...ISOLATED-SCT THUNDERSTORMS MAY SEEMINGLY DEVELOP WITHIN A
SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC OR RANDOM FASHION IN AREAS WELL AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. EVEN SO...DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A MIX OF
SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

USED A MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN AND WILL USE A BLEND. WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE
IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS ON
WEDNESDAY...THUS WILL KEEP TSRA MENTIONS AT THAT TIME AND CONTINUE
CHANCES INTO THURSDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN ON THURSDAY
WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME INSTABILITY
SHOWERS.

COOLER AND DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BUILD ACROSS INDIANA FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY AS LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURES SLOWLY
DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT. MEXMOS
POPS LOOK TOO HIGH AS THEY ARE LEANING TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY TOO MUCH
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR GIVEN THIS PATTERN. THUS WILL KEEP A DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200600Z TAFS/...
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN SITES BEFORE
12Z...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL COME AFTER 12Z AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. BY 18Z OR SO CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN. FOR NOW WILL USE A
COMBINATION OF CB AND VCTS TO HIGHLIGHT THREAT. STORM THREAT
SHOULD EB GONE BY 00Z.

OTHER PROBLEM IS FOG TONIGHT. GROUND FOG IS LIKELY WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MENTION AREAS OF DENSE FOG NEARBY WITH BCFG. FOG WILL
BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND LESS THAN 15 KNOTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...PUMA/SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK/50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
933 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

INZ021-028>031-035>049-057-210145-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-RUSH-
933 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FOR TONIGHT.
THESE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BECOME SEVERE...HOWEVER
LIGHTNING IS A HAZARD WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN WITH ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR
FLOODING REPORTS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ051>056-060>065-067>072-210145-
VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-
BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
933 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FOR TONIGHT.
THESE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BECOME SEVERE...HOWEVER
LIGHTNING IS A HAZARD WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

LOW LAND FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WABASH AND
LOWER WHITE RIVER. SEE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR MORE DETAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK STORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY BE SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

LOW LAND FLOODING MAY OCCUR ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WABASH AND
LOWER WHITE RIVER THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. SEE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN WITH ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR
FLOODING REPORTS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
205 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0203 AM     HAIL             WILLIAMS                38.80N 86.65W
06/20/2011  E1.00 INCH       LAWRENCE           IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

SMFLECHT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
231 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0229 AM     HAIL             MITCHELL                38.74N 86.48W
06/20/2011  E1.00 INCH       LAWRENCE           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SMFLECHT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
237 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0236 AM     HAIL             MITCHELL                38.74N 86.48W
06/20/2011  E1.25 INCH       LAWRENCE           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SMFLECHT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
253 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

INZ053-054-062-063-200745-
BROWN-MONROE-MORGAN-OWEN-
253 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BROWN...NORTHERN
MONROE...SOUTHERN MORGAN AND EASTERN OWEN COUNTIES UNTIL 345 AM
EDT...

AT 251 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF SPENCER...OR 14 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BLOOMINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
PARAGON AROUND 315 AM EDT...
MARTINSVILLE AROUND 340 AM EDT...
MAHALASVILLE AROUND 345 AM EDT...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3953 8632 3929 8624 3922 8676 3945 8684
TIME...MOT...LOC 0653Z 255DEG 15KT 3933 8667

50