Severe Thunderstorm Warning 317, NWS Indianapolis, IN

513 
WWUS53 KIND 142127
SVSIND

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
427 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

INC045-107-157-165-142145-
/O.CON.KIND.SV.W.0317.000000T0000Z-111114T2145Z/
FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-TIPPECANOE-VERMILLION-
427 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL
FOUNTAIN...NORTHERN MONTGOMERY...SOUTHERN TIPPECANOE AND NORTH
CENTRAL VERMILLION COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EST...

AT 425 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE TO 11 MILES NORTH OF
CRAWFORDSVILLE TO 8 MILES EAST OF VEEDERSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 50
MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CRAWFORDSVILLE...CLARKS HILL AND DARLINGTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4010 8737 4027 8723 4035 8670 4006 8669
      3999 8754 4004 8754
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 255DEG 45KT 4033 8672 4021 8682
          4012 8707
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.75IN

$$

KOCH

806 
WWUS53 KIND 142138
SVSIND

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
438 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

INC045-107-157-165-142145-
/O.CON.KIND.SV.W.0317.000000T0000Z-111114T2145Z/
FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-TIPPECANOE-VERMILLION-
438 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL
FOUNTAIN...NORTHERN MONTGOMERY...SOUTHERN TIPPECANOE AND NORTH
CENTRAL VERMILLION COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EST...

AT 433 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF FRANKFORT TO 12 MILES WEST OF FRANKFORT TO
8 MILES NORTHWEST OF CRAWFORDSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  DARLINGTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4010 8737 4027 8723 4035 8670 4006 8669
      3999 8754 4004 8754
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 255DEG 45KT 4036 8654 4024 8664
          4015 8690
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.75IN

$$

KOCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
334 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND DRAG A
SRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS
DURING THIS TIME. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OUT IN VICINTY OF THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN COOLER AND DRIER WILL RULE UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEK. THEN CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SPC HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 879 FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.

.MESO UPDATE...

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE VERY
STRONG...AND EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES ARE WELL IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2.
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND
MATURE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND
ARE POSSIBLE. A STORM OR TWO MAY RIDE RIGHT ALONG THE WARM
FRONT...WITH A CORRIDOR OF PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR
TORNADOES POSSIBLE THERE.

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...

NOW AS THE LOW MOVES INTO MICHIGAN THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...FURTHER INITATING
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTAL INDIANA. BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR...THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (SB CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG )FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF 0-1KM
SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS....AND
POSSIBLY A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. WILL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT SEVERE WX THREATS IN THE HWO

THE CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. PWATS AROUND 1.25 INCHES
WILL MAKE FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN ANY OF THE THUNDER THAT DOES
DEVELOP SO INCLUDED THIS IN THE GRIDS AND MENTION IN HWO. DAMAGING
WINDS GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN THE MAIN THREATS AT TIME TIME.

AS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH AS
THE LOW WEAKENS MOVING FARTHER TO THE NE. SEVERE WX POTENTIAL WILL
BEGIN TO WANE TOWARD THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

NEXT BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. REFRAINED
FROM MENTIONING PATCHY FOG AT THIS TIME AS WE BELIEVE WINDS MAYE
STAY UP AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH LOW TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS COVER WILL HANG ON THROUGH THIS EVENING, WILL ALLOW EVENING
SHIFT TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AND ADD PATCHY FOG IF NEEDED LATER THIS
EVENING...BASED ON THIS EVENINGS TRENDS, FOR NOW THIS DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE A WIDESPREAD AREAL FOG EVENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED FOR MOST FEATURES.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND END UP STALLED INVOF THE OH VALLEY. SO FOR THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA SO WENT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS THERE...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL HANG AROUND TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A WEAKENING UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE COMBINATION OF THE
FORCING FROM THESE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY ANS THURSDAY
PROVIDING DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS.

MOS DOES A DECENT JOB FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM AT
MOST LOCATIONS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS QUIET AS THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY EASTWARD...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MAKE
THEIR RETURN TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO
RETURN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE NEXT STORM EJECTS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY
SATURDAY. MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE
HANDLING OF THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM. CURRENTLY EXPECT WAA SHOWERS TO
BEGIN ON SATURDAY MORNING OWING TO ISENTROPIC LIFT AOA THE 300K SFC.
BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK...BUT WITH GOOD
DYNAMICS...INTRODUCED THUNDER MONDAY NIGHT. PULLED BACK POPS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT POST FRONTAL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 142100Z TAF UPDATE/...

BUMPED UP WINDS A BIT FOR KIND FOR UPDATE. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

LIGHT SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY STARTING TO INITIATE IN THE KHUF
AREA...BUT IT HAS BEEN PRIMARILY DRY UP TO THIS POINT. THE MAIN
CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 18-23Z TIME FRAME AS
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TAF SITES. CONDITIONS WILL FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN VFR/MVFR WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE AT TIMES.

WINDS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO GUST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
AFORMENTIONED FRONT. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
14-16 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE STORMS
THAT DO FORM COULD PRODUCE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 KTS. WINDS WILL
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

IN REGARD TO FOG...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WINDS SHOULD BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO PREVENT FORMATION...AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PROHIBIT IT AT KBMG/KING/KHUF. HOWEVER...THIS WILL HAVE TO RE-
EVALUATED WITH FUTURE ISSUANCES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....MRD
AVIATION...AB/SMF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
356 AM EST MON NOV 14 2011

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067-068-150900-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-
356 AM EST MON NOV 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

HAZARDS: DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

TIMING: SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN NOON AND 700 PM.

DISCUSSION: THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK: THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM.

DISCUSSION: A SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BRINGING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ069>072-150900-
MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
356 AM EST MON NOV 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR FAR SOUTHERN CENTRAL
INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK:THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

HAZARDS: DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

TIMING: SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN 300 PM AND 700
PM.

DISCUSSION:THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK: THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM.

DISCUSSION: A SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BRINGING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
251 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0246 PM     HAIL             INDIANAPOLIS            39.78N 86.15W
11/14/2011  E0.25 INCH       MARION             IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            PEA SIZED HAIL AT I-65 AND I-465 ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
            THE CITY.

&&

AHOMANN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
343 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND GST     WEST LAFAYETTE          40.44N 86.91W
11/14/2011  E60 MPH          TIPPECANOE         IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            55-60 MPH WIND GUST ACCOMPANIED BY PENNY SIZED HAIL.

&&

AHOMANN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
350 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0347 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     LAFAYETTE               40.41N 86.87W
11/14/2011                   TIPPECANOE         IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FUNNEL CLOUD NEARING THE GROUND NEAR THE TIPPECANOE MALL
            ALONG US 52.

&&

AHOMANN