Severe Thunderstorm Warning 316, NWS Indianapolis, IN

753 
WWUS53 KIND 141936
SVSIND

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
236 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

INC171-142000-
/O.CON.KIND.SV.W.0316.000000T0000Z-111114T2000Z/
WARREN-
236 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
WARREN COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM EST...

AT 230 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES
EAST OF HOOPESTON...OR 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FOWLER...MOVING EAST AT
40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

THIS IS A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. DUE TO THE ROTATING NATURE OF
SUPERCELLS...THEY ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL TYPES OF SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. BE PREPARED TO ACT QUICKLY SHOULD A
TORNADO OCCUR OR A TORNADO WARNING BE ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 4045 8753 4048 8753 4048 8752 4048 8737
      4046 8739 4041 8747 4037 8753 4045 8754
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 263DEG 34KT 4045 8744
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

KOCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
100 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THE FRONT WILL HANG UP TO OUR
SOUTH...AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY. COOLER AND DRIER WILL
RULE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK...WHEN CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

...UPDATE...

SPC HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 879 FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.

ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE VERY
STRONG...AND EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES ARE WELL IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2.
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM
AND MATURE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WIND ARE POSSIBLE. A STORM OR TWO MAY RIDE RIGHT ALONG THE WARM
FRONT...WITH A CORRIDOR OF PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR
TORNADOES POSSIBLE THERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

FOCUS IS ON RAIN AND SEVERE THREAT TODAY. MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN
DECENT AGREEMENT SO WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND.

THE INITIAL SURGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER HAS LIFTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES INTO MO.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE INTO LOWER MI THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH 17Z.

NOW AS THE LOW MOVES INTO MICHIGAN THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BEING IN THE WARM
SECTOR...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (SB CAPE OF AROUND 500
J/KG )FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF 0-1KM SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK LOOKS GOOD. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN HWO.

THE CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON LEADS TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. PWATS AROUND 1.25 INCHES
WILL MAKE FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN ANY OF THE THUNDER THAT DOES
DEVELOP SO INCLUDED THIS IN THE GRIDS AND MENTION IN HWO.

MOS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART GIVEN THE WARM START AND
REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MUCH OF TODAY. NO CHANGES TO
TEMPS ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED FOR MOST FEATURES.

AT 00Z THIS EVENING THE FRONT WILL STILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA SO WENT HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELY POPS THERE...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. AS THE FRONT WORKS SOUTH
OVERNIGHT WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL HANG AROUND TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A WEAKENING UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE COMBINATION OF THE
FORCING FROM THESE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY PROVIDING DRY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS.

MOS DOES A DECENT JOB FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM AT
MOST LOCATIONS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

MODELS START OFF SIMILAR...BUT ECM GRADUALLY BECOMES FASTER. ITS
TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH CONFIDENCE WHICH IS RIGHT. FOR NOW ENSEMBLE
APPROACH SHOULD WORK. DID NOT CHANGE ALLBLEND MODEL WHICH USES
ENSEMBLES VERY STRONGLY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 14/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

LIGHT SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY STARTING TO INITIATE IN THE KHUF
AREA...BUT IT HAS BEEN PRIMARILY DRY UP TO THIS POINT. THE MAIN
CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 18-23Z TIME FRAME AS
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TAF SITES. CONDITIONS WILL FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN VFR/MVFR WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE AT TIMES.

WINDS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO GUST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
AFORMENTIONED FRONT. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
14-16 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE STORMS
THAT DO FORM COULD PRODUCE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 KTS. WINDS WILL
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

IN REGARD TO FOG...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WINDS SHOULD BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO PREVENT FORMATION...AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PROHIBIT IT AT KBMG/KING/KHUF. HOWEVER...THIS WILL HAVE TO RE-
EVALUATED WITH FUTURE ISSUANCES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...TDUD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
356 AM EST MON NOV 14 2011

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067-068-150900-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-
356 AM EST MON NOV 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

HAZARDS: DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

TIMING: SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN NOON AND 700 PM.

DISCUSSION: THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK: THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM.

DISCUSSION: A SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BRINGING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ069>072-150900-
MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
356 AM EST MON NOV 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR FAR SOUTHERN CENTRAL
INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK:THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

HAZARDS: DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

TIMING: SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN 300 PM AND 700
PM.

DISCUSSION:THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK: THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM.

DISCUSSION: A SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BRINGING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
906 AM EST MON NOV 14 2011

INZ021-029-030-141445-
CARROLL-CLINTON-TIPPECANOE-
906 AM EST MON NOV 14 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CLINTON...SOUTHERN
CARROLL AND EASTERN TIPPECANOE COUNTIES UNTIL 945 AM EST...

AT 905 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES EAST OF LAFAYETTE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ROSSVILLE...
  FLORA...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4056 8651 4038 8637 4029 8671 4044 8683
TIME...MOT...LOC 1406Z 243DEG 44KT 4040 8666

77/TDUD