Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1027 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUMP IN SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE THAT WILL GET WRUNG OUT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLY FROM THE
MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY TO WARRANT
CURRENT TORNADO WATCH OUT UNTIL 5 AM. A COUPLE OF BOW ECHOES ARE
BEARING DOWN ON THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
RECENT HEAVY RAIN...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DROP OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WHICH WILL AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING ISSUES.
WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS THAT GOT HIT HARD WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON RAIN COOLED AIR AND HOW FAST THE FRONT MOVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COVECTION WILL BE WANING ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THUNDERSTORMS
WEAKEN AND PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND
STRATUS WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS AND THE COLD AIR BEING USHERED IN WILL HAVE A NON-
DIURNAL HIGH TEMPERATURE THAT OCCURS AROUND DAYBREAK AND FALLS
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY.

CLEARING TOMORROW NIGHT WILL PUSH MIN TEMPS INTO THE 30S. ANOTHER
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL IN FLUX AS TO
WHETHER THE FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN OR NORTHERN CWA BUT
THAT IS NEGLIGIBLE COMPARED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM THERE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING AROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
NW OF THE AREA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT.

BEYOND FRIDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE GFS FAVORS A
SLIGHT WEAKER RIDGE WHICH WOULD KEEP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER KENTUCKY THIS WEEKEND. THE ECMWF FAVORS A
SLIGHT STRONGER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH WOULD DRAPE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL OHIO. HAVE BLENDED THE TWO
SOLUTIONS INTO THE FORECAST WHILE AWAITING MORE CLARITY FROM THE
MODELS. BY MONDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR SAINT LOUIS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY NE TO A POSITION NEAR FORT WAYNE BY 06Z...CENTRAL
LAKE ERIE BY 12Z...THEN EASTERN ONTARIO BY 18Z. THIS LOW WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF...STRONG...MOIST
ASCENT IN THE LOW LEVELS...ALSO STRONGLY CONVERGENT...WILL COUPLE
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO PRODUCE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AM STILL EXPECTING SOME KIND OF SQUALL LINE TO RACE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...PASSING THROUGH
KCVG...KLUK...KDAY...KILN BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z...AND KCMH...KLCK
BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL WAIT AND WATCH HOW THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS
BEFORE PUTTING IN ANY 50 KNOT GUSTS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. ONCE THE MAIN CONVECTION GOES
BY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY OCCUR BEFORE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTINESS
DIMINISHING TOWARD 00Z THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SCOURING OUT LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ060>065-070>074-
     077>080-082.
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ090>093.
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FRANKS/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...FRANKS/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...LATTO
AVIATION...HICKMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
545 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ090>093-OHZ060>065-070>074-077>080-
082-202145-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-
FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-
HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-PIKE-
545 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL
OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WELL ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE TO
DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SQUALL LINE. CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

THE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST. THE THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

KYZ089-094>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-081-088-202145-
CARROLL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-
MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-
CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-ADAMS-SCIOTO-
545 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO
AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WELL ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP
TO OUR WEST AND TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SQUALL
LINE. CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST. THE THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
745 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0406 PM     FLOOD            RICHMOND                39.83N 84.89W
04/19/2011                   WAYNE              IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL BASEMENTS IN AND AROUND RICHMOND ARE FLOODED.
            2.04 INCHES MEASURED AT RICHMOND WITH 1.62 MEASURED IN
            HAGERSTOWN. HIGH WATER SOUTH OF CENTERVILLE IS RECEDING.

&&

JOHNF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1216 AM EDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 PM     TORNADO          CELINA                  40.55N 84.57W
04/19/2011                   MERCER             OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PRELIMINARY REPORTS OF STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IN AND AROUND
            CELINA FROM A POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

SNYDER