River Flood Advisory 16, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
200 PM EDT WED APR 20 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT AND A MOIST AIRMASS WILL AFFECT
THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH SEVERE WEATHER IS EAST OF THE AREA. COLD
FRONT OVER INDIANA WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS. WITH RAINFALL LINGERING...WILL KEEP FLOOD WATCH
IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE...THOUGH SKIES WILL PROBABLY REMAIN CLOUDY WITH SATELLITE
AND OBS SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT THAN USUAL
DUE TO COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER. WENT WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE LOW 50S NORTHWEST UP TO THE MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AND
THEN LIFT NORTH TOWARD CENTRAL OHIO ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING
THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SLOW MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
APPROACHING 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO
THE MID 60S SOUTH. WITH THE WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH ON FRIDAY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NW OF THE AREA WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

BEYOND FRIDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE GFS FAVORS A
SLIGHT WEAKER RIDGE WHICH WOULD KEEP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER KENTUCKY THIS WEEKEND. THE ECMWF FAVORS A
SLIGHT STRONGER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH WOULD DRAPE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL OHIO. HAVE BLENDED THE TWO
SOLUTIONS INTO THE FORECAST WHILE AWAITING MORE CLARITY FROM THE
MODELS. BY MONDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENSIVE SC DECK EXTENDS BACK TO PLAINS. MODELS ARE STILL FCTG
THAT THE SC WILL BREAK UP FROM W TO E SHORTLY AFT 00Z. DELAYED THE
CLRG TO 03Z IN THE WRN TAFS AND 06Z IN THE E.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE TAFS FOR THU...WITH SOME AC
ADVECTING INTO CVG AFT 18Z.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...LATTO
AVIATION...SITES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
948 AM EDT WED APR 20 2011

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-211400-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
948 AM EDT WED APR 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

RIVERS THROUGH OUT THE AREA ARE RUNNING HIGH...WITH SEVERAL POINTS
IN FLOOD. PLEASE CHECK THE RIVER FLOOD PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS AND
THE LATEST FORECASTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1245 PM EDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0201 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ENE NEW ANTIOCH       39.42N 83.70W
04/20/2011                   CLINTON            OH   PUBLIC

            TIN ROOF OFF BARN. RAFTERS IN BARN ROOF BROKEN AND DOOR
            KNOCKED OFF BARN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
139 PM EDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0141 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 ENE FORT THOMAS       39.12N 84.37W
04/20/2011                   HAMILTON           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE 100 YEAR OLD TREE KNOCKED DOWN ONTO HOUSE. OTHER
            PINE TREES IN AREA SNAPPED.

0233 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CARROLL                 39.80N 82.70W
04/20/2011                   FAIRFIELD          OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE LARGE PINE AND MAPLE TREES 10 TO 15 INCHES IN
            DIAMETER BROKEN AT GROUND LEVEL. ONE TREE FELL ONTO
            HOUSE.

0245 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HEATH                   40.03N 82.44W
04/20/2011                   LICKING            OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            3 BUILDINGS DAMAGED

&&

KURZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
140 PM EDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W BROOKVILLE          39.42N 85.05W
04/20/2011                   FRANKLIN           IN   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            LEVEE ROAD IS UNDER WATER. OTT ROAD NEAR LAUREL IS ALSO
            UNDER WATER. SEVERAL ROADS ACROSS THE COUNTY EXPERIENCED
            HIGH WATER. LEVEE ROAD MAY BE UNDERMINED.

&&

JOHNF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
158 PM EDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0104 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N WARSAW              38.86N 84.88W
04/20/2011                   SWITZERLAND        IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            AT LEAST 3 BARNS DESTROYED AND 2 HOMES WITH ROOFS BLOWN
            OFF NEAR SR 250 AND ANTIOCH RD. RELAYED BY WLWT.

&&

KURZ

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