River Flood Warning 51, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
748 AM EDT WED APR 20 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT AND A MOIST AIRMASS WILL AFFECT
THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH SEVERE WEATHER IS EAST OF THE AREA. COLD
FRONT OVER INDIANA WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS. WITH RAINFALL LINGERING...WILL KEEP FLOOD WATCH
IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE...THOUGH SKIES WILL PROBABLY REMAIN CLOUDY WITH SATELLITE
AND OBS SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT THAN USUAL
DUE TO COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER. WENT WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE LOW 50S NORTHWEST UP TO THE MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AND
THEN LIFT NORTH TOWARD CENTRAL OHIO ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING
THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SLOW MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
APPROACHING 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO
THE MID 60S SOUTH. WITH THE WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH ON FRIDAY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NW OF THE AREA WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

BEYOND FRIDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE GFS FAVORS A
SLIGHT WEAKER RIDGE WHICH WOULD KEEP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER KENTUCKY THIS WEEKEND. THE ECMWF FAVORS A
SLIGHT STRONGER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH WOULD DRAPE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL OHIO. HAVE BLENDED THE TWO
SOLUTIONS INTO THE FORECAST WHILE AWAITING MORE CLARITY FROM THE
MODELS. BY MONDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG TSTM ARE E OF THE TAFS...WHILE A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS IS
ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FNT IS RUNNING FROM NR MRT-
MWO-CVG ATTM. HAVE THE FRONT TIMED TO BE E OF ALL THE TAFS BETWEEN
13-14Z. WINDS ARE GUSTING AROUND 30KTS WITH FROPA.

MVFR/IFR SC WILL WORKING IN POST FRONTAL. NUMEROUS OBS ACRS
INDIANA HAVE CIGS 700 FT. NOT SURE IF CIGS WILL RISE A LITTLE WITH
DAYLIGHT SO TEMPOED THE IFR CIGS INSTEAD OF GOING PREVAILING.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE COLD AIR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AFTER 00Z AND MVFR SC SHOULD SCT OUT.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ060>065-070>074-
     077>080-082.
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ090>093.
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...LATTO
AVIATION...SITES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
948 AM EDT WED APR 20 2011

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-211400-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
948 AM EDT WED APR 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

RIVERS THROUGH OUT THE AREA ARE RUNNING HIGH...WITH SEVERAL POINTS
IN FLOOD. PLEASE CHECK THE RIVER FLOOD PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS AND
THE LATEST FORECASTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1154 AM EDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNE MILFORD           38.60N 84.15W
04/20/2011                   BRACKEN            KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ACROSS HIGHWAY 19.

0158 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E NEAVE               38.65N 84.19W
04/20/2011                   BRACKEN            KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ACROSS ROUTE 22.

&&

JOHNF