Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
430 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IN
THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH
THE AREA ON MONDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. EXPECT THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS HOWEVER GENERALLY EXPECT THEM TO DECREASE IN SEVERITY AND
COVERAGE LATER THIS EVENING AROUND SUNSET. SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AND THEREFORE INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. HOW FAST THIS PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND HOW
MUCH RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER REMAINS WILL IMPACT AFTERNOON
DEVELOPMENT. BELIEVE THAT STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY
ENOUGH FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL LAY OUT ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS A FAIRLY
STRONG SHORT WAVE TREKS EASTWARD. THESE FACTORS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY
OF FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES
EAST DURING THE EVENING THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH QUITE A
BIT ALTHOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.

BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS LIFT STARTS TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH. SHOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE OF
STORMS PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT MIDWEEK
WILL SLOWLY OPEN UP AND LIFT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AS ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL BE HIGH
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE LEAD UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COOLER WITH A SUSTAINED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE SECOND UPPER LOW SAGS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A
KLUK/KILN LINE UNTIL 00Z TODAY. CURRENTLY HAVE ONLY VFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST...HOWEVER MAY NEED ADD TEMPOS TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS IF CURRENT THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST HOLD TOGETHER OR
DEVELOP FURTHER. BY 12Z MONDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE...WHICH WILL BRING A HIGHER CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...LATTO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
353 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ060>063-070>073-077>082-
088-232000-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-
FAYETTE OH-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
353 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO
AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED DUE TO A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR MAY LEAD TO
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE
MAIN THREATS.

A FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DUE TO THIS REPEATED
PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY OCCUR THIS WEEK THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-064-065-074-232000-
HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-
CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-
HOCKING-
353 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY
OF OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT IN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING
THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR MAY LEAD TO
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE
MAIN THREATS.

A FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DUE TO THIS REPEATED
PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY OCCUR THIS WEEK THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
506 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HAIL             1 N HAMILTON            39.41N 84.56W
05/22/2011  E1.75 INCH       BUTLER             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ANOVAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
509 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 PM     HAIL             PIKETON                 39.07N 83.00W
05/22/2011  M1.25 INCH       PIKE               OH   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
511 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HAIL             AURORA                  39.07N 84.90W
05/22/2011  E1.00 INCH       DEARBORN           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MYRONP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
514 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 PM     HAIL             MAINEVILLE              39.32N 84.22W
05/22/2011  M1.00 INCH       WARREN             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&