Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1019 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

.UPDATE...FOR HYDROLOGY ISSUES

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD EVENT POTENTIALLY UNFOLDING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES HAS
ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS ACROSS THE NW ALABAMA AND SRN
TN INCLUDING THE IRON CITY AND BIG NANCE BASINS. AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE
BEEN LESS EAST OF I-65 WITH 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES.

WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF ROBUST CONVECTION EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE LATE
EVENING FROPA...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES SEEM LIKELY IN THE
IMPACTED BASINS. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MODERATE FLOODING IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE PAINT ROCK AND ELK RIVERS WITH MAJOR FLOODING
ALONG THE BIG NANCE NEAR COURTLAND. IN FACT...THE RIVER STAGE AT
COURTLAND IS FORECAST TO RISE TO 23 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
WOULD BE THE HIGHEST CREST THERE SINCE 1990 AND WOULD CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN AND NEAR COURTLAND.

RESIDENTS IN LAUDERDALE COUNTY SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF
SHOAL CREEK...WITH THE RIVER STAGE FORECAST TO RISE WELL ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE UPSTREAM AT IRON CITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011/

...MESOSCALE DISCUSSION AND UPDATE....

BUSY DAY ALREADY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE
REPORTED EARLIER IN SEVERAL COUNTIES FROM OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
QLCS AND HP SUPERCELLS. NEXT ROUNDS OF SCT CONVECTION WITH ELEVATED
HAIL CORES ALREADY TRACKING INTO NW AL. STORMS ACROSS NRN MS HAVE
SHOWN ROTATION...AND STORMS ACROSS NRN AL HAVE STARTED TO EXHIBIT HP
CHARACTERISTICS AS WELL.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX LOW STRUCTURE FROM CENTRAL
INDIANA SOUTH TO THE ARKLATEX. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHES
SOUTH THROUGH EAST TEXAS. CLOSER TO THE HOME...THE EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION HAS LEFT A SMALL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR ERN COUNTIES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PROFILER DATA SHOWS AN 80KT MID LEVEL JET
STREAK PUNCHING OUT OF THE ARKLATEX THIS MORNING. CONVECTION HAS
BEGUN TO FIRE ALONG THE APEX OF THIS JET STREAK. THIS WILL BE THE
AREA TO MONITOR THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS AS THE JET STREAK AND THE
ASSOCIATE U/L JET MAX PROGRESSES EAST. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS LARGE SCALE
ASCENT IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE H25 JET DURING THE AFTN. THIS WILL
BE COINCIDENT WITH MLCAPES ~2-2.5 KJ/KG AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 600 M2/S2. THE ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR MAY BE RAIN COOLED
LOW LEVEL AIR DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTION...BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN ATTM.

AM NOT PLANNING MAJOR CHGS TO FCST FOR NOW OTHER THAN TO TWEAK FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SHORT TERM TRENDS. TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDANT ON BREAKS BETWEEN CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS...BUT NOT GOING TO
SWEAT THAT RIGHT NOW.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COLBERT...CULLMAN...DEKALB...FRANKLIN AL...JACKSON...
     LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE...MADISON...MARSHALL...
     MORGAN.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COLBERT...CULLMAN...DEKALB...FRANKLIN AL...JACKSON...
     LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE...MADISON...MARSHALL...
     MORGAN.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: FRANKLIN TN...LINCOLN...MOORE.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     FRANKLIN TN...LINCOLN...MOORE.

&&

DISCUSSION...15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1023 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-280100-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1023 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY UNTIL
200 PM CDT.

AS OF 1000 AM...A ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS ALREADY TRACKED THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
ANOTHER LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. SEVERAL ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SEVERE WEATHER ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY DESTABILIZE THROUGH MIDDAY...CREATING A
VOLATILE SITUATION ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF...AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT AND
MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION. A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG...LONG TRACK
TORNADOES EXISTS...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. RESIDENTS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ARE URGED
TO REMAIN ALERT FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE
INTO A SMALL STREAM AND RIVER FLOODING EVENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
THREAT...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AS THEY ARE
ISSUED FOR SEVERAL RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

ALSO...WINDS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA...THEREFORE A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
THROUGH 8 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND...AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
959 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0949 AM     HAIL             2 SSE ELKWOOD           34.95N 86.71W
04/27/2011  E0.25 INCH       MADISON            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED.

0950 AM     HAIL             2 ENE HARVEST           34.87N 86.71W
04/27/2011  E1.75 INCH       MADISON            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED.

&&

KWEBER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1000 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0949 AM     HAIL             2 SSE ELKWOOD           34.95N 86.71W
04/27/2011  E0.50 INCH       MADISON            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED.

&&

KWEBER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1001 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0946 AM     HAIL             HARVEST                 34.86N 86.75W
04/27/2011  E0.75 INCH       MADISON            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

KWEBER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1007 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

TNZ076-096-097-271600-
FRANKLIN-LINCOLN-MOORE-
1007 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FRANKLIN...LINCOLN AND MOORE
COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 AM CDT...

AT 1004 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FLINTVILLE...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
FAYETTEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  HARMONY...TIMS FORD LAKE.
  ESTILL SPRINGS...DECHERD.
  WOODS RESERVOIR.
  ALTO.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3536 8602 3533 8599 3533 8597 3530 8592
      3526 8589 3524 8589 3501 8638 3515 8652
      3537 8625 3536 8623 3535 8620 3537 8616
TIME...MOT...LOC 1508Z 233DEG 61KT 3513 8633

CCC

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