Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
128 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THIS COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN
COOLER WEATHER FOR TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND
LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO PUT OUT TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 411 FOR ALL OF OUR NH
ZONES PLUS A LARGE PART OF SW MAINE. OTRW NO CHANGES AT THIS
TIME EXCEPT A FEW TWEAKS TO GRIDS.

GRIDS AND FCSTS ALREADY UPDATED TO INCLUDE HIGHER POP FOR SHRA
AND TSTMS AND MENTION PSBL SVR WX THROUGH OUT THE DAY. ALREADY
ISSUED STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS ON STRONG/SVR CONVECTION PER RADAR
AND HAVE VERIFIED SOME WARNINGS DUE TO LARGE (1 INCH) HAIL THIS
MORNING.

SPC CONTINUES SLGT RISK OF SVR WX WITH 5 PCT CHC TORNADOES FOR TDA
AS A CD FNT MARCHES THRU LATER IN THE DAY. ALL INGREDIENTS
THERE...INSTABILITY WITH HIGH CAPE VALUES AND SHEAR DUE TO VEERING
WINDS FROM H9 THRU H7 THOUGH VEERING DIMINISHES DURING THE DAY BUT
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO AN END. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE 40S AND 50S. BY THURSDAY...A PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND UPSLOPE WEST NORTHWEST WINDS TO BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS MAINLY TO MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS. BUT DRIER AIR MAY LIMIT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FROM THIS. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OMEGA PATTERN AT 500MB WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...AS STRONG RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
HEARTLAND...WITH CLOSED LOWS SETTING UP JUST OFF EACH COAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A GENERAL N-NW FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
ENOUGH WEAK RIDGING TO KEEP PRECIP MAINLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST.

UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR SETTLES INTO PLACE BY THU NIGHT...BUT LOOKS
LIKE ENOUGH FLOW...AT LEAST AT THE BOUNDARY LYR...IF NOT AT THE
SFC TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD DECOUPLING...SO THE THREAT FOR FROST
SEEMS MINIMAL ATTM.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND LOOKS SEASONABLY AND MAINLY SUNNY AS WEAK
RIDGING LOOKS TO STAY IN PLACE. WITH ANOTHER COOL NIGHT INS TORE
FRI NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE WE START GETTING INTO WEAK ER FLOW BY LATER
IN THE WEEKEND...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE COASTAL STRATUS
AT NIGHT SAT AND SUN. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT AGREE THAT CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO LINGER
OFFSHORE...JUST HOW FAR IS IN DEBATE. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLT CHC
POPS IN THE FORECAST MON-TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT MUCH LOWER IN ANY
TSTMS WHICH COULD BE SVR TDA INTO THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ONLY ISSUE WILL BE POTENTIAL COASTAL STRATUS SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...WILL UPDATE FOR LATEST
OBSERVED DATA. CONT TO PUT IN PSBL SVR TSTMS TDA WITH ENHANCED
WORDING FOR ASSOCIATED MARINE HAZARDS. WILL CONT THE SCA FOR BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...WINDS/SEAS LOOK TO DIMINISH
THU NIGHT...AND SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA LVLS THROUGH HE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TSTMS MAY BE SEVERE TODAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY
ANY TSTMS.

HIGH HUMIDITY AND COOLER WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
COMBINE WITH NEARLY COMPLETE GREEN UP TO KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1041 AM EDT WED JUN 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0913 AM     HAIL             1 NW OLD ORCHARD BEACH  43.53N  70.39W
06/01/2011  M1.00 INCH       YORK               ME   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER GYX1100078

ES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1048 AM EDT WED JUN 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 AM     HAIL             JACKSON                 44.14N  71.18W
06/01/2011  M1.00 INCH       CARROLL            NH   PUBLIC

0820 AM     HAIL             LONDONDERRY             42.87N  71.37W
06/01/2011  M0.88 INCH       ROCKINGHAM         NH   PUBLIC

0830 AM     HAIL             RAYMOND                 43.04N  71.18W
06/01/2011  M0.88 INCH       ROCKINGHAM         NH   PUBLIC

0830 AM     HAIL             RAYMOND                 43.04N  71.18W
06/01/2011  M1.00 INCH       ROCKINGHAM         NH   AMATEUR RADIO

0835 AM     HAIL             SALEM                   42.79N  71.20W
06/01/2011  M1.00 INCH       ROCKINGHAM         NH   TRAINED SPOTTER

0835 AM     HAIL             RAYMOND                 43.04N  71.18W
06/01/2011  M1.00 INCH       ROCKINGHAM         NH   PUBLIC

0836 AM     HAIL             2 SE LONDONDERRY        42.84N  71.35W
06/01/2011  E1.00 INCH       ROCKINGHAM         NH   PUBLIC

0840 AM     HAIL             DOVER                   43.20N  70.87W
06/01/2011  M0.88 INCH       STRAFFORD          NH   PUBLIC

0843 AM     LIGHTNING        SANDOWN                 42.93N  71.19W
06/01/2011                   ROCKINGHAM         NH   AMATEUR RADIO

            LIGHTNING STRIKE HOUSE ON FIRE ALEXIS LANE

0851 AM     HAIL             1 SSW DOVER             43.18N  70.89W
06/01/2011  M1.00 INCH       STRAFFORD          NH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STRONG THUNDERSTORM... PEA SIZED TO 1 INCH HAIL... NO
            WIND... HEAVY RAIN

0901 AM     HAIL             1 NE WELLS              43.33N  70.57W
06/01/2011  E1.00 INCH       YORK               ME   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0908 AM     HAIL             1 ENE WELLS             43.33N  70.56W
06/01/2011  M1.00 INCH       YORK               ME   PUBLIC

0913 AM     HAIL             1 NW OLD ORCHARD BEACH  43.53N  70.39W
06/01/2011  M1.00 INCH       YORK               ME   PUBLIC

0915 AM     HAIL             2 NE WELLS              43.34N  70.55W
06/01/2011  M1.00 INCH       YORK               ME   PUBLIC

0920 AM     HAIL             POLAND                  44.06N  70.39W
06/01/2011  E0.50 INCH       ANDROSCOGGIN       ME   AMATEUR RADIO

            SOME NICKEL SIZE HAIL... AND SMALLER INTENSE FOR ABOUT
            2 MIN. HAM PA2SHY

&&

EVENT NUMBER GYX1100063 GYX1100068 GYX1100065 GYX1100076 GYX1100062
GYX1100066 GYX1100074 GYX1100067 GYX1100061 GYX1100060 GYX1100064
GYX1100069 GYX1100078 GYX1100077 GYX1100070

TFH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1050 AM EDT WED JUN 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 AM     HAIL             2 SW OXFORD             44.11N  70.52W
06/01/2011  M1.00 INCH       OXFORD             ME   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER GYX1100079

ES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1231 PM EDT WED JUN 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MINOT                   44.09N  70.32W
06/01/2011                   ANDROSCOGGIN       ME   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE ON PWR LINE

&&

EVENT NUMBER GYX1100080

TFH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
150 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

NHZ002-003-011830-
NORTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN COOS-
150 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT COOS COUNTY AND GRAFTON COUNTY
THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

AT 149 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 4 MILES WEST OF LITTLETON...MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND
LISBON...LITTLETON...DALTON...GILMAN...FRANCONIA...BETHLEHEM
...LITTLETON...FOREST LAKE STATE PARK AND WHITEFIELD THROUGH 245 PM.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

LAT...LON 4434 7193 4435 7191 4434 7186 4436 7182
      4441 7179 4443 7169 4447 7165 4449 7161
      4452 7159 4471 7109 4429 7106 4419 7194
      4434 7198

JC