Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
851 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THIS COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN
COOLER WEATHER FOR TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND
LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED GRIDS AND FCSTS TO INCLUDE HIGHER POP FOR SHRA AND TSTMS
AND MENTION PSBL SVR WX THROUGH OUT THE DAY. ALREADY ISSUING
STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS ON STRONG/SVR CONVECTION IN NH AND EXTREME
SW ME PER LATEST RADAR.

SPC CONTINUES SLGT RISK OF SVR WX FOR TDA AS A CD FNT MARCHES THRU
LATER IN THE DAY. ALL INGREDIENTS THERE...INSTABILITY WITH HIGH
CAPE VALUES AND SHEAR DUE TO VEERING WINDS FROM H9 THRU H7 THOUGH
VEERING DIMINISHES DURING THE DAY BUT WIND SPEEDS INCREASE.

COULD BE SUPERCELL TSTMS WITH SVR WX. SPC HAS 5 PCT CHC OF TORNADO
...SO EVEN THAT IS A POSSIBILITY...THOUGH VERY SLGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO AN END. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE 40S AND 50S. BY THURSDAY...A PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND UPSLOPE WEST NORTHWEST WINDS TO BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS MAINLY TO MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS. BUT DRIER AIR MAY LIMIT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FROM THIS. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OMEGA PATTERN AT 500MB WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...AS STRONG RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
HEARTLAND...WITH CLOSED LOWS SETTING UP JUST OFF EACH COAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A GENERAL N-NW FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
ENOUGH WEAK RIDGING TO KEEP PRECIP MAINLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST.

UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR SETTLES INTO PLACE BY THU NIGHT...BUT LOOKS
LIKE ENOUGH FLOW...AT LEAST AT THE BOUNDARY LYR...IF NOT AT THE
SFC TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD DECOUPLING...SO THE THREAT FOR FROST
SEEMS MINIMAL ATTM.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND LOOKS SEASONABLY AND MAINLY SUNNY AS WEAK
RIDGING LOOKS TO STAY IN PLACE. WITH ANOTHER COOL NIGHT INS TORE
FRI NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE WE START GETTING INTO WEAK ER FLOW BY LATER
IN THE WEEKEND...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE COASTAL STRATUS
AT NIGHT SAT AND SUN. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT AGREE THAT CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO LINGER
OFFSHORE...JUST HOW FAR IS IN DEBATE. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLT CHC
POPS IN THE FORECAST MON-TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT MUCH LOWER IN ANY
TSTMS WHICH COULD BE SVR TDA INTO THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ONLY ISSUE WILL BE POTENTIAL COASTAL STRATUS SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...WILL UPDATE TO PUT IN PSBL
SVR TSTMS TDA WITH ENHANCED WORDING FOR ASSOCIATED MARINE HAZARDS.
WILL CONT THE SCA FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...WINDS/SEAS LOOK TO DIMINISH
THU NIGHT...AND SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA LVLS THROUGH HE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH HUMIDITY WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
328 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>010-013-014-021000-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-
NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-
SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-
STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
328 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

ANZ150>154-021000-
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-PENOBSCOT BAY-
PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-CASCO BAY-
CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
328 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASCO BAY...PENOBSCOT
BAY...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER
MA...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME AND
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

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