Severe Thunderstorm Warning 143, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1049 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST...CROSSING THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1448 UTC...MADE A FEW CHANGES TO TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND WINDS
IN THE COASTAL WATERS...OTHERWISE CHARACTER OF FORECAST PACKAGE
REMAINS INTACT.

1107 UTC...UPDATE TO INPUT LATEST OBS DATA...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED
ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION;
AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED BUT WILL BURN OFF
BY MID MORNING. LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. SURFACE HEATING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE
TO CLOUD COVER BUT ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT WITH A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
WIND FIELD WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS COMBINED WIND FIELD PRODUCING SHEAR ALONG WITH POOLING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROVIDES A GOOD PROBABILITY OF
WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS ALL THE DYNAMICS COME TOGETHER. TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE MTNS TO MID 80S OVER SOUTHERN
INTERIOR AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT..THEN BY LATER AT NIGHT THE CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH TO SHOWERS. TOWARD MORNING CLEARING WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
PLACE ACROSS NH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND DOWNSLOPING COMMENCES...THIS CLEARING WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS MAINE AS A DRIER AND STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSUNNY ACROSS ALL OF THE DOWNSLOPING
AREAS OF SOUTHERN MAINE AND NH BY AFTERNOON. IN THE MTNS CLOUDS
AND SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. USED A
BLEND OF THE MAV/MET TEMPS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOLER AND DRIER FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH UPPER TROF
ROTATING OVERHEAD. PERIODS OF STRATOCU AND WDLY SCT MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

WARMUP WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY WED AND THU AHEAD OF NEXT COLD
FRONT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH FROPA THURS AND
THURS EVENING.

COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY BUT THEN POSSIBLE WARMUP AND
INCREASED HUMIDITY ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
FROM WEST TO EAST AND WILL REDUCE CONDITIONS TO MVFR TO IFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING SOME OF
THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SCT
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURS WITH COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT. A SCA HAD BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE SCA WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS SOME NORTHWEST GUSTY
WINDS MAY OCCUR AND SEAS MAY TAKE A WHILE BEFORE BEING KNOCKED
DOWN TO BELOW SCA CRIT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. BEST CHANCE AT
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE THURS IN SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

NEAR TERM...STJEAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
339 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>021-023>025-NHZ001>010-013-014-221100-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-COASTAL YORK-
COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-
NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-
SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-
COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
339 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 797 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL MOVE INTO
MAINE THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING IS ALSO EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MEZ022-026>028-221100-
INTERIOR WALDO-LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-
339 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MAINE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS NEW
HAMPSHIRE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL MOVE INTO MAINE THIS EVENING.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ153-221100-
CASCO BAY-
339 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 797 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASCO BAY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF
THE A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING IN WESTERN MAINE. A FEW STORMS MAY
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ150>152-154-221100-
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-PENOBSCOT BAY-
PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-
CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
339 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MAINE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS NEW
HAMPSHIRE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL MOVE INTO MAINE THIS EVENING.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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