Severe Thunderstorm Warning 141, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1049 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST...CROSSING THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1448 UTC...MADE A FEW CHANGES TO TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND WINDS
IN THE COASTAL WATERS...OTHERWISE CHARACTER OF FORECAST PACKAGE
REMAINS INTACT.

1107 UTC...UPDATE TO INPUT LATEST OBS DATA...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED
ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION;
AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED BUT WILL BURN OFF
BY MID MORNING. LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. SURFACE HEATING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE
TO CLOUD COVER BUT ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT WITH A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
WIND FIELD WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS COMBINED WIND FIELD PRODUCING SHEAR ALONG WITH POOLING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROVIDES A GOOD PROBABILITY OF
WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS ALL THE DYNAMICS COME TOGETHER. TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE MTNS TO MID 80S OVER SOUTHERN
INTERIOR AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT..THEN BY LATER AT NIGHT THE CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH TO SHOWERS. TOWARD MORNING CLEARING WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
PLACE ACROSS NH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND DOWNSLOPING COMMENCES...THIS CLEARING WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS MAINE AS A DRIER AND STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSUNNY ACROSS ALL OF THE DOWNSLOPING
AREAS OF SOUTHERN MAINE AND NH BY AFTERNOON. IN THE MTNS CLOUDS
AND SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. USED A
BLEND OF THE MAV/MET TEMPS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOLER AND DRIER FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH UPPER TROF
ROTATING OVERHEAD. PERIODS OF STRATOCU AND WDLY SCT MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

WARMUP WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY WED AND THU AHEAD OF NEXT COLD
FRONT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH FROPA THURS AND
THURS EVENING.

COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY BUT THEN POSSIBLE WARMUP AND
INCREASED HUMIDITY ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
FROM WEST TO EAST AND WILL REDUCE CONDITIONS TO MVFR TO IFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING SOME OF
THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SCT
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURS WITH COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT. A SCA HAD BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE SCA WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS SOME NORTHWEST GUSTY
WINDS MAY OCCUR AND SEAS MAY TAKE A WHILE BEFORE BEING KNOCKED
DOWN TO BELOW SCA CRIT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. BEST CHANCE AT
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE THURS IN SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
COLD FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

NEAR TERM...STJEAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
130 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

NHZ001>009-221730-
NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-
SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-
130 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 795 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE TODAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO MAINE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS ALSO EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ010-013-014-221730-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-
STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
130 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE TODAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO MAINE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS ALSO EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

ANZ150>154-221730-
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-PENOBSCOT BAY-
PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-CASCO BAY-
CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
130 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASCO BAY...PENOBSCOT
BAY...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER
MA...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME AND
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE TODAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO MAINE AND THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING. A
FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS ALSO EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
258 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0254 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLAREMONT               43.38N  72.35W
08/21/2011                   SULLIVAN           NH   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN SUSPECTED MICROBURST NO HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER GYX1100376

ER

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
310 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0239 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LANGDON                 43.17N  72.38W
08/21/2011                   SULLIVAN           NH   PUBLIC

            TREE AND WIRES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER GYX1100377

MPK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
311 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0243 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ACWORTH                 43.22N  72.29W
08/21/2011                   SULLIVAN           NH   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE...SEVERAL MORE TREES AND WIRES DOWN
            IN TOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER GYX1100378

MPK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
313 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEMPSTER                43.24N  72.21W
08/21/2011                   SULLIVAN           NH   PUBLIC

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN ON GRAND VIEW ROAD AND LEMPSTER
            ROAD. COUPLE OTHER LOCATIONS ALSO WITH TREES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER GYX1100379

MPK