Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
244 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BEFORE WEAKENING BY MID-WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
APPROACH THE AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE MTNS AND ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWFA. EXPECT SCT STORMS TO MOVE OFF THE MTNS AND ACROSS
THE CWFA THRU THE AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS NOT AS STRONG TODAY
BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DCAPE SHOULD HELP A FEW OF THE STORMS
TO PRODUCE SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS. ISOLATED FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED
OUT GIVEN HIGH PW VALUES. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCT STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER TROF
BRINGS FORCING AND UPPER DIVERGENCE INTO THE AREA. SEVERE CHANCE NOT
VERY HIGH OVERNIGHT...BUT FLOOD THREAT COULD BE GREATER GIVEN THE
CONTINUED HIGH PW VALUES AND BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING. LOWS ABOVE
NORMAL.

SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE LONG WAVE TROF AND MOVES INTO THE
AREA. DEEP MOISTURE MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY TAKING THE CHC OF
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH IT. HOWEVER...ENUF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FOR SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS NC. DRIER AIR AND WLY FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP CONVECTION TO A
MINIMUM OVER THE WRN UPSTATE AND NE GA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL BE TRICKY WITH WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP EARLY BUT CLEARING SKIES
AT LEAST ACROSS THE SWRN CWFA FOR THE AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
THE COOLER MET WHICH IS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR SC BUT NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE UPSTATE AND NE GA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 2 PM EDT SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD FORM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A WELL
DEFINED SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ITS BASE ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TO
OUR EAST WILL SLOWLY DEPART SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE NW FLOW UPSLOPE
SHOWERS PERSIST IN THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN. THESE SHOWERS WILL
ABATE ON MONDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ONE CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 2 PM EDT SATURDAY...A MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
EAST COAST FORM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME WEAKENING OF
THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDING MOVES THROUGH
BEHIND A DEPARTING SYSTEM...BUT MAJOR REAMPLIFICATION WILL TAKE
PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK AN UPPER LOW REACHES EASTERN CANADA...AND
SHORTWAVES DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS. RELATIVELY COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA FORM WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS AIR MASS WILL START OUT ABNORMALLY DRY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...BUT WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS
FROM NE TO SE...AND MOISTURE IS LIFTED UPSLOPE FROM THE ATLANTIC. A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATE
FRIDAY...AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS THE FATE OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS UNCLEAR. POPS WILL START OUT QUITE LOW...INCREASING IN
STEP WITH MOISTURE LATE IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE UPSLOPE
FLOW FAVORED BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CLOUD BASES ARE GENERALLY LOW VFR AND SHOULD
REMAIN THAT WAY UNLESS A CONVECTIVE CELL MOVES OVER THE AIRFIELD.
HAVE LOW VFR CIGS AND CB NOW OR BY 20Z GIVEN CELL MOVEMENT. CELL
MOVEMENT WILL BE THE PRIME DETERMINANT FOR RESTRICTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCT STORMS OVERNIGHT AS A
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND MVFR TO IFR CONDS. PRECIP CHC ENDS
FROM SW TO NE THRU THE DAY SUN...AS DO RESTRICTIONS. STILL TOO EARLY
TO TELL WHAT AREAS WILL NEED CB. WINDS WILL BECOME SLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THEN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WLY WIND EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID
MORNING SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...TSTM CHANCES DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST. EXPECT DRIER WEATHER MON-WED...INCREASING CHC CONVECTION THU
AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
330 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-141930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
330 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND POSSIBLY HAIL AS LARGE AS
QUARTERS. IN ADDITION...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH. ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING.
A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY EXIST ALONG THE
I-77 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
335 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

NCZ064-065-SCZ003-132015-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-HENDERSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
335 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN TRANSYLVANIA...
NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE AND SOUTHERN HENDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 415
PM EDT...

AT 333 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF TUXEDO...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HENDERSONVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  JONES GAP STATE PARK...
  TIGERVILLE...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3508 8231 3501 8259 3503 8260 3503 8258
      3505 8260 3507 8257 3508 8261 3524 8268
      3531 8252

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
339 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

NCZ504>506-508-132030-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER BURKE-GREATER RUTHERFORD-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
339 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD...
SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL AND SOUTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM
EDT...

AT 337 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NEBO...OR 4 MILES EAST OF MARION...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GLENWOOD...
  DYSARTSVILLE...
  THERMAL CITY...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3580 8174 3557 8166 3557 8167 3558 8169
      3554 8170 3549 8205 3572 8209

ARK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
349 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WNW GRANITE FALLS     35.82N 81.48W
08/13/2011                   CALDWELL           NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES DOWN ON UNION GROVE ROAD NEAR SAWMILLS.

&&

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
404 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

NCZ035-036-056-069-132045-
ALEXANDER-CATAWBA-IREDELL-LINCOLN-
404 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CATAWBA...LINCOLN...SOUTHERN
ALEXANDER AND SOUTHWESTERN IREDELL COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

AT 403 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BETHLEHEM TO CONOVER
TO 3 MILES WEST OF NEWTON TO 3 MILES NORTH OF VALE...MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  VALE...
  NEWTON...
  CLAREMONT...
  LOOKOUT SHOALS LAKE...
  MAIDEN...
  LINCOLNTON...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

LAT...LON 3581 8084 3564 8081 3557 8085 3542 8108
      3553 8151 3555 8151 3556 8153 3562 8150
      3570 8138 3577 8133 3592 8134

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
414 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

SCZ003-006-007-132100-
GREATER GREENVILLE-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-SPARTANBURG-
414 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN GREENVILLE AND
NORTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

AT 411 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CAMPOBELLO TO 3
MILES NORTHEAST OF CLEVELAND...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  TIGERVILLE...
  LAKE BOWEN...
  INMAN...
  LAKE ROBINSON...
  LYMAN...

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3506 8258 3507 8257 3508 8259 3513 8263
      3518 8246 3516 8245 3519 8242 3520 8238
      3518 8237 3520 8228 3519 8209 3496 8194
      3492 8249

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
416 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

GAZ028-SCZ004-010-132100-
ANDERSON-GREATER OCONEE-HART-
416 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ANDERSON...NORTHERN HART
AND SOUTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

AT 411 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TOWNVILLE...OR 12 MILES
NORTH OF HARTWELL...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ANDERSON...

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3445 8299 3462 8293 3456 8254 3432 8263

07