Severe Thunderstorm Warning 601, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

079 
WWUS52 KGSP 131843
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
243 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

NCC011-131853-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0601.000000T0000Z-110813T1915Z/
AVERY NC-
243 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN AVERY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3605 8144 3593 8147 3581 8150 3579 8151
      3588 8183 3589 8187 3596 8182 3596 8180
      3607 8173
TIME...MOT...LOC 1843Z 301DEG 12KT 3593 8168

$$

NCC023-027-131915-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0601.000000T0000Z-110813T1915Z/
CALDWELL NC-BURKE NC-
243 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL BURKE AND WESTERN CALDWELL COUNTIES...

AT 238 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR COLLETTSVILLE...OR 10 MILES WEST OF LENOIR...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PATTERSON...GAMEWELL AND CAJAH'S MOUNTAIN

LAT...LON 3605 8144 3593 8147 3581 8150 3579 8151
      3588 8183 3589 8187 3596 8182 3596 8180
      3607 8173
TIME...MOT...LOC 1843Z 301DEG 12KT 3593 8168

$$

ARK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
154 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BEFORE WEAKENING BY MID-WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
APPROACH THE AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY JUST EAST OF
THE CWFA. A FEW CELLS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY IN UNION AND ROWAN
COUNTIES FROM THIS CONVECTION...BUT THIS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EAST.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AROUND NOON ALONG AND NEAR
THE BLUE RIDGE WITH AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWFA THRU THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED AGAIN
TODAY. ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE LOWER...IT WILL BE HIGHER
THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DCAPE WILL BE HIGH AS WELL...SO
THE STRONGER STORMS THAT FORM TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE
DOWNBURST WINDS. PW VALUES ARE HIGHER SO ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS OR
TRAINING ECHOES COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE W
TODAY. EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES WITH AT LEAST SCT SHWRS IN MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW THIS MRNG. A TSTM OR TWO IS ALSO PSBL. SHOULD SEE SOME
BREAKS IN CLOUDS BY THIS AFTN BUT OVERALL LOOK FOR MCLDY-CLDY SKIES
WITH AN INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY ENHANCED BY
HEATING... DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND LOW LEVEL E-SE FLOW. WITH THIS IN
MIND HELD ON TO SOLID CHC POPS THRU THE AFTN. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT
IN THE L90S FAR S...M-U80S N AND U70S-M80S MTNS. AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE W MTNS LATE TONIGHT THE CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS RAMPS UP
WITH LIKELY POPS SPREADING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT.
MRNG LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 240 AM SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...LIKELY CLEARING ALL BUT THE EASTERN
1/3 OF THE CWFA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WHILE LIKELY POPS
WILL START THE DAY...BY AFTERNOON...LIKELY POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE I-77 CORRIDOR. SPC HAS ACTUALLY SHIFTED THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK
FURTHER EAST...COVERING ONLY THE I-77 CORRIDOR IN THE GSP CWFA.
CONSIDERING THE TIMING AND THE FACT THAT WIND SHEAR VALUES...WHILE
NOT BAD FOR AUGUST...WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...THIS MAKES A LOT OF
SENSE. HOWEVER...I DO ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE
MORNING.

IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE NAM AND GFS HAVE PERFORMED AN ABOUT-FACE
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WHEREAS YESTERDAYS RUN OF THE THE GFS WAS
RELUCTANT TO END PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA...EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...IT IS NOW THE NAM THAT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION IN
THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN ON MONDAY
(AS THE COOL CORE UPPER LOW PASSES OVERHEARD). CLIMATOLOGICALLY
SPEAKING...IT STANDS TO REASON THAT THE THE FRONT WILL NOT SCOUR LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OUT COMPLETELY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A DEVELOPING NW
FLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH THEN PERSISTS INTO MONDAY. SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE POPS WILL BE RETAINED ACROSS THE TENN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES WILL BE CARRIED FOR MOST AREAS
MONDAY...AS LINGERING MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT MON NIGHT AND TUE WILL BE DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ANTICYCLONIC.
SUNDAY MORNING PRECIP FOLLOWED BY LOWERING HEIGHTS AND DRIER AIR
WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL MIN TEMPS AND NEAR-NORMAL MAXES THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF MORE TYPICAL MID-
SUMMER WEATHER BY MID-WEEK...AS HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE AIR MASS MODIFIES IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH AND
INCREASING FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THEREFORE...WED SHOULD SEE A
RETURN TO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE MTNS.

HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE WEEK...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT HEIGHTS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL AS A MAJOR UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM TRAVERSES SOUTHERN CANADA. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
DEPICTED OVER OUR REGION BY FRIDAY. THEREFORE...POPS WILL GRADUALLY
RAMP UP TO CHANCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CLOUD BASES ARE GENERALLY LOW VFR AND SHOULD
REMAIN THAT WAY UNLESS A CONVECTIVE CELL MOVES OVER THE AIRFIELD.
HAVE LOW VFR CIGS AND CB NOW OR BY 20Z GIVEN CELL MOVEMENT. CELL
MOVEMENT WILL BE THE PRIME DETERMINANT FOR RESTRICTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCT STORMS OVERNIGHT AS A
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND MVFR TO IFR CONDS. PRECIP CHC ENDS
FROM SW TO NE THRU THE DAY SUN...AS DO RESTRICTIONS. STILL TOO EARLY
TO TELL WHAT AREAS WILL NEED CB. WINDS WILL BECOME SLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THEN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WLY WIND EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID
MORNING SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...TSTM CHANCES DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST. EXPECT DRIER WEATHER MON-WED...INCREASING CHC CONVECTION THU
AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...RB/RWH
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
641 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-141045-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
641 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME LARGE
HAIL. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH. ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING.
A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY EXIST ALONG THE
I-77 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
917 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 WNW ANDERSON          34.56N 82.73W
08/12/2011                   ANDERSON           SC   PUBLIC

            LARGE LIMBS AND ONE TREE DOWN OFF OF CHANTILLY LN NR LAKE
            HARTWELL

&&

PTANNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1018 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1216 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 WSW CLINTON           34.44N 81.95W
08/12/2011                   LAURENS            SC   PUBLIC

            LARGE LIMBS DOWN NEAR HOLMES BRIDGE RD

&&

PTANNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
115 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

NCZ064-SCZ001-002-131800-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-TRANSYLVANIA-
115 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN OCONEE...
NORTHWESTERN PICKENS AND SOUTHERN TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES THROUGH 200
PM EDT...

AT 109 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTH OF LAKE TOXAWAY...OR 16 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BREVARD...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE JOCASSEE...
  ROSMAN...
  ROCKY BOTTOM...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3509 8303 3514 8298 3516 8300 3517 8298
      3519 8298 3515 8266 3510 8269 3506 8276
      3505 8274 3506 8269 3491 8274 3501 8305
      3503 8301 3505 8304

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
125 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

NCZ053-131815-
BUNCOMBE-
125 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL BUNCOMBE COUNTY THROUGH
215 PM EDT...

AT 121 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LEICESTER...OR 9 MILES WEST
OF DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LEICESTER...
  I-26 AT I-40...
  UNC ASHEVILLE...

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3548 8247 3553 8278 3554 8276 3556 8278
      3557 8277 3562 8281 3569 8281 3570 8279
      3570 8276 3572 8274 3572 8245

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

NCZ033-501>503-131845-
AVERY-BURKE MOUNTAINS-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN BURKE...
SOUTHEASTERN AVERY AND WESTERN CALDWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM
EDT...

AT 156 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR EDGEMONT...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NEWLAND...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GLOBE...
  COLLETTSVILLE...

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3607 8151 3583 8159 3587 8171 3589 8173
      3588 8175 3594 8192 3612 8187

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
208 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

GAZ010-SCZ001-131900-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-RABUN-
208 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN RABUN AND WESTERN OCONEE
COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT...

AT 204 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CLAYTON...MOVING EAST AT 5
MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LONG CREEK...

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3494 8311 3470 8317 3478 8348 3496 8343

07