Severe Thunderstorm Warning 597, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
757 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS REGENERATED CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE IN
UPSLOPE AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SPILLED OUT INTO THE ADJACENT
PIEDMONT. WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
VERY LITTLE AND AN ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT WILL ACCOMPANY
THE SEVERE WIND THREAT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR IN UPSTATE SC. OTHERWISE...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER WRN NC IN THE EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE MOIST LAYER...BUT WITH ONLY ISOLD COVERAGE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. FOG MAY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH
LOCALLY DENSE RESTRICTIONS IN THE MTN VALLEYS AND IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL. MIN TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK.

SATURDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS TO START EARLY AGAIN AS THE CONTINUED SELY
FLOW ACTS ON LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. OVERALL CONVECTION COULD
BE MORE WIDESPREAD AS SOME ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES IN.
HAVE KEPT POP LIMITED TO SOLID CHC FOR NOW. HIGHS SHOULD BE JUST ON
THE LOW SIDE OF NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT 2 PM EDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
DEAMPLIFY SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SLOW
MOVING NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH A WEAK PRECEDING
SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WILL FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
ONE INCH...AND PERHAPS TWO INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS WINDS VEER TO
THE NORTHWEST...UPSLOPE FLOW SHOWERS WILL SET UP IN THE NC MOUNTAINS
BORDERING TN LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...ENDING MONDAY AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN BELOW NORMAL FORM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 2 PM EDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HEIGHTS RISE TEMPORARILY ON WEDNESDAY
BETWEEN SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH...THEN FALL LATE
IN THE WEEK AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA...CAUSING THE TROUGH AXIS TO RETROGRADE INTO THE
APPALACHIANS. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE COAST ON
TUESDAY...WHILE RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THIS HIGH CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUITE LIMITED IN THIS HIGH PRESSURE...AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
AND LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW COME INTO PLAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
LATE SUMMER OR EARLY AUTUMN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY HAS DISSIPATED...BUT
MOIST SE FLOW COULD ALLOW ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWER TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAVE KCLT PRECIPITATION FREE
FOR THE 00Z ISSUANCE...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THERE IS
DEVELOPING CONSENSUS ON A LOWER STRATUS DECK FORMING
OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS THE BEST FORECAST AT PRESENT AFT 09Z.
BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO FORECAST THAT. EXPECT SE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AND THEN STEADY SE AGAIN THROUGH SAT. CB CLOUDS WITH VFR
CIGS WILL BE FEATURED THROUGH SAT AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...A DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS ALLOWING CELLS TO
BACKBUILD OR MOVE SLOWLY JUST EAST OF THE MTNS. TSRA WILL BE CARRIED
AT KGSP AND KGMU AND IFR CONDITIONS MIGHT BE NEEDED IF THE HEAVIEST
CORES THREATEN THE AIRFIELD. TSRA MAY SPREAD TOWARD KAND AFTER 02Z.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLD TO SCT ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION AT KAVL TO
KHKY...BUT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NEARBY OVERNIGHT IN EASTERLY FLOW.
EXPECT A STRATUS DECK TO DEVELOP AT MVFR LEVELS BY 08Z...WITH IFR
POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGHOUT TOWARD DAYBREAK. IFR WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT KAVL AND KHKY. EXPECT LIGHT SE FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH CB CLOUDS DURING THE AFTN HOURS.

OUTLOOK...TSTM CHANCES INCREASE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT DRIER WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TJB
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1106 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-131515-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1106 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO DEVELOP...
ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WHERE MULTIPLE STORMS MOVE THROUGH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
640 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

SCZ002-003-005-006-122330-
GREATER GREENVILLE-GREATER PICKENS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS
MOUNTAINS-
640 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PICKENS AND WESTERN
GREENVILLE COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT...

AT 636 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PUMPKINTOWN...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF PICKENS...
MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MARIETTA...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3491 8278 3508 8275 3508 8274 3510 8272
      3510 8268 3509 8241 3483 8244

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
648 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

NCZ510-SCZ003-006-007-122330-
EASTERN POLK-GREATER GREENVILLE-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-SPARTANBURG-
648 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN GREENVILLE...
NORTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG AND SOUTHERN POLK COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM
EDT...

AT 644 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF GOWENSVILLE...OR 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF COLUMBUS...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE ROBINSON...

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3492 8225 3514 8242 3519 8234 3519 8232
      3520 8228 3520 8226 3524 8228 3526 8225
      3520 8204

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
724 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

SCZ005-006-010-130015-
ANDERSON-GREATER GREENVILLE-GREATER PICKENS-
724 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL GREENVILLE...EASTERN
PICKENS AND NORTHERN ANDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM EDT...

AT 722 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF EASLEY...OR 5 MILES EAST OF
PICKENS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LIBERTY...
  EASLEY...
  POWDERSVILLE...

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3464 8265 3488 8275 3489 8274 3496 8258
      3496 8255 3475 8238

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
739 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

SCZ002-003-006-007-130030-
GREATER GREENVILLE-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS
MOUNTAINS-SPARTANBURG-
739 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PICKENS...NORTHERN
GREENVILLE AND WESTERN SPARTANBURG COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM EDT...

AT 735 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTH OF
GOWENSVILLE TO MARIETTA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE ROBINSON...
  TRAVELERS REST...
  FURMAN UNIVERSITY...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

LAT...LON 3488 8244 3493 8252 3497 8253 3496 8257
      3504 8269 3513 8222 3498 8197

ARK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
742 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0732 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WSW EASLEY            34.81N 82.62W
08/12/2011                   PICKENS            SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES AND LARGE LIMBS DOWN ALONG SMITH GROVE ROAD. POWER
            IS ALSO REPORTED TO BE OUT FOR PARTS OF THIS AREA NEAR
            EASLEY.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
811 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             EASLEY                  34.82N 82.59W
08/12/2011  E0.88 INCH       PICKENS            SC   PUBLIC

            DIME HAIL ALONG PENDLETON HIGHWAY NEAR HIGHWAY 135.

&&

HG