Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
211 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND STALL OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES IN BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 1 PM EDT...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND REACH THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY...
WHILE A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY...TO
INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND THE
FRONT...COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WILL
SUPPORT LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING.

WITH INCREASED WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH FREEZING LEVELS ARE RATHER HIGH...LARGE HAIL CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH RICH MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA...BUT MODERATE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP CELLS
MOVING...AND VEERING FLOW ALOFT THIS EVENING  SHOULD LIMIT TRAINING.
ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RUNNING 2 TO 3 INCHES...AND
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE REACHED IN ISOLATED LOCATION... NO FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...BUT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS...UPSLOPE FLOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE
TN BORDER OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN A
MOIST AIR MASS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF OUR AREA TOMORROW
MORNING...MEANING THAT FORCING AND THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL NOT
COINCIDE WITH THE BEST HEATING OF THE DAY. WITH THAT IN MIND...ONLY
CHANCE POPS WILL BE CARRIED ON SATURDAY...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
SHIFTING TO THE PIEDMONT BY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN BUILDING
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA SUN AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE MDLS
DISAGREE ON WHERE THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AND THE AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL ELY MOIST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM IS THE DRIEST
PUSHING THE BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH...BUT STILL KEEPS MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
MTNS. THE GFS AND SREF KEEP THE BOUNDARY FARTHER NORTH WITH MORE
MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND KEEPING CHC
POP CONFINED TO THE WRN UPSTATE...NE GA AND THE SRN MTN/FOOTHILLS OF
NC WITH ISOLATED POP ELSEWHERE FOR SUN. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHC POP ALL
AREAS MONDAY...BUT THIS MAY BE TOO HIGH OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS AND
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. POP WILL RETAIN A DIURNAL TREND. ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS SUNDAY GO WELL ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS.
LOWS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY AT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA BEGINS TO RETROGRADE
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS A TROF FORMS OFF THE EAST COAST.
THIS PUTS OUR AREA IN A WEAK NWLY FLOW. THIS ALLOWS WEAK SHORT WAVES
TO DROP DOWN TOWARD THE AREA PUSHING A FRONT IN FROM THE NW ON TUE.
THE GFS AND CANADIAN TRY TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WED AND
KEEP IT THERE THU AND FRI AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE AREA WED AND ONLY PUSHES
IT TO THE SRN CWFA FOR THU WITH SOME DRIER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE
N FRI. THERE IS ALWAYS A QUESTION HOW FAR SOUTH A FRONT CAN GO THIS
TIME OF YEAR...SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLN. THIS MEANS A
MAINLY DIURNAL POP TREND. WITH BEST CHC WEST TUE AND FRI AND CHC ALL
AREAS WED AND THU. WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS TUE SLOWLY FALL TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THU AND FRI AS HEIGHTS FALL. LOWS FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
AS TIMING AND LOCATION ARE NOT WELL DEFINED...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CARRIED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FIELD DURING MAXIMUM INSTABILITY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IF A CONVECTIVE CORE HITS THE
AIRFIELD DIRECTLY...IFR CONDITIONS WOULD ACCOMPANY IT IN HEAVY RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP MOISTURE...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WOULD ACCOMPANY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS ON SATURDAY. FOR
NOW GUIDANCE ONLY SUPPORTS LOW VFR FOG SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A VFR
CIG. LIGHT SSW WINDS WILL VEER TO NW BY DAWN...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. CONVECTION SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH
LESS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT.

ELSEWHERE...AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY. VCTS WILL BE CARRIED
AT NC SITES...WHERE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE GREATEST...AND CB
WILL BE CARRIED AT SC SITES. ANY SITE AFFECTED BY A CONVECTIVE CORE
HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR CIG AND VSBY. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS VFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR DAWN VSBY AT KAVL IN FOG...AND MVFR AT KHKY AND
KAND. OF COURSE ANY SITE THAT RECEIVES HEAVY RAINFALL IN CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING WOULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS AT DAWN IN RAIN
MOISTENED AIR. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW THIS EVENING TO NW BY
DAWN...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH FROM THE NORTH. KAND WILL BE THE
EXCEPTION...WITH WESTERLY WINDS REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
CONVECTION SATURDAY WILL BE MOST LIKELY NEAR THE FRONT AT KAND AND
KGMU...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO CARRY CB.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY...STALLING OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE MOVING SOUTH ON MONDAY. AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...FOLLOWED BY MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS WHERE
RAIN FELL THE DAY BEFORE. EXPECT SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS BY MONDAY.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/AVIATION.PHP#TABLE

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
325 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-091930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
325 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP WITH LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...
WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
336 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

NCZ036-056-069-082000-
CATAWBA-IREDELL-LINCOLN-
336 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN CATAWBA...IREDELL AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 336 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SCOTTS TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF DENVER TO 3 MILES WEST OF CROUSE...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LINCOLNTON...
  BOGER CITY...
  DENVER...

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY FLOOD LOW
LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND
DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS.

LAT...LON 3597 8070 3586 8070 3569 8077 3560 8075
      3553 8077 3551 8081 3551 8092 3549 8095
      3543 8096 3540 8102 3542 8146 3544 8147
      3563 8118 3579 8110 3586 8104 3598 8100

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
341 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

SCZ002-003-006-082015-
GREATER GREENVILLE-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
341 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL GREENVILLE AND
NORTHEASTERN PICKENS COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 341 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PUMPKINTOWN...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF
PICKENS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CAESARS HEAD...
  MARIETTA...
  TRAVELERS REST...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3492 8251 3497 8253 3492 8266 3492 8273
      3509 8274 3510 8270 3511 8268 3513 8236
      3491 8235

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
401 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

NCZ036-056-069-071-082030-
CATAWBA-IREDELL-LINCOLN-MECKLENBURG-
401 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN LINCOLN...NORTHERN
MECKLENBURG...SOUTHEASTERN CATAWBA AND SOUTHERN IREDELL COUNTIES
THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

AT 402 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF IRON STATION...OR 7 MILES
EAST OF LINCOLNTON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DENVER...
  LOWESVILLE...
  LAKE NORMAN...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3541 8121 3559 8123 3563 8085 3540 8083

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
405 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

NCZ036-037-057-082030-
DAVIE-IREDELL-ROWAN-
405 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT DAVIE...EASTERN IREDELL AND
WESTERN ROWAN COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

AT 405 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HARMONY TO 4 MILES
EAST OF STATESVILLE TO 4 MILES WEST OF MOORESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  MOORESVILLE...
  CLEVELAND...
  MOCKSVILLE...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS
SUCH AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

LAT...LON 3583 8045 3582 8047 3578 8046 3551 8056
      3551 8096 3553 8094 3555 8096 3558 8095
      3562 8093 3564 8096 3606 8082 3605 8049
      3607 8046 3598 8040

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
408 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

SCZ003-006-007-082045-
GREATER GREENVILLE-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-SPARTANBURG-
408 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN GREENVILLE AND WESTERN
SPARTANBURG COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

AT 408 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTH OF TIGERVILLE...OR 12 MILES NORTH
OF DOWNTOWN GREENVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TIGERVILLE...
  LAKE ROBINSON...
  GREER...
  LYMAN...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3512 8206 3489 8208 3493 8249 3511 8248

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
411 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

NCZ071-082-SCZ009-082045-
MECKLENBURG-UNION-YORK-
411 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN YORK...SOUTHWESTERN
MECKLENBURG AND WESTERN UNION COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

AT 411 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FORT MILL...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROCK
HILL...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CAROWINDS...
  PINEVILLE...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3497 8068 3495 8080 3505 8089 3501 8090
      3496 8087 3494 8087 3492 8102 3510 8107
      3519 8074

HG