Severe Thunderstorm Warning 530, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
211 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND STALL OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES IN BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 1 PM EDT...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND REACH THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY...
WHILE A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY...TO
INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND THE
FRONT...COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WILL
SUPPORT LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING.

WITH INCREASED WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH FREEZING LEVELS ARE RATHER HIGH...LARGE HAIL CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH RICH MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA...BUT MODERATE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP CELLS
MOVING...AND VEERING FLOW ALOFT THIS EVENING  SHOULD LIMIT TRAINING.
ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RUNNING 2 TO 3 INCHES...AND
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE REACHED IN ISOLATED LOCATION... NO FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...BUT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS...UPSLOPE FLOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE
TN BORDER OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN A
MOIST AIR MASS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF OUR AREA TOMORROW
MORNING...MEANING THAT FORCING AND THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL NOT
COINCIDE WITH THE BEST HEATING OF THE DAY. WITH THAT IN MIND...ONLY
CHANCE POPS WILL BE CARRIED ON SATURDAY...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
SHIFTING TO THE PIEDMONT BY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN BUILDING
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA SUN AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE MDLS
DISAGREE ON WHERE THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AND THE AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL ELY MOIST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM IS THE DRIEST
PUSHING THE BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH...BUT STILL KEEPS MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
MTNS. THE GFS AND SREF KEEP THE BOUNDARY FARTHER NORTH WITH MORE
MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND KEEPING CHC
POP CONFINED TO THE WRN UPSTATE...NE GA AND THE SRN MTN/FOOTHILLS OF
NC WITH ISOLATED POP ELSEWHERE FOR SUN. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHC POP ALL
AREAS MONDAY...BUT THIS MAY BE TOO HIGH OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS AND
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. POP WILL RETAIN A DIURNAL TREND. ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS SUNDAY GO WELL ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS.
LOWS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY AT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA BEGINS TO RETROGRADE
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS A TROF FORMS OFF THE EAST COAST.
THIS PUTS OUR AREA IN A WEAK NWLY FLOW. THIS ALLOWS WEAK SHORT WAVES
TO DROP DOWN TOWARD THE AREA PUSHING A FRONT IN FROM THE NW ON TUE.
THE GFS AND CANADIAN TRY TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WED AND
KEEP IT THERE THU AND FRI AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE AREA WED AND ONLY PUSHES
IT TO THE SRN CWFA FOR THU WITH SOME DRIER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE
N FRI. THERE IS ALWAYS A QUESTION HOW FAR SOUTH A FRONT CAN GO THIS
TIME OF YEAR...SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLN. THIS MEANS A
MAINLY DIURNAL POP TREND. WITH BEST CHC WEST TUE AND FRI AND CHC ALL
AREAS WED AND THU. WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS TUE SLOWLY FALL TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THU AND FRI AS HEIGHTS FALL. LOWS FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
AS TIMING AND LOCATION ARE NOT WELL DEFINED...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CARRIED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FIELD DURING MAXIMUM INSTABILITY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IF A CONVECTIVE CORE HITS THE
AIRFIELD DIRECTLY...IFR CONDITIONS WOULD ACCOMPANY IT IN HEAVY RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP MOISTURE...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WOULD ACCOMPANY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS ON SATURDAY. FOR
NOW GUIDANCE ONLY SUPPORTS LOW VFR FOG SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A VFR
CIG. LIGHT SSW WINDS WILL VEER TO NW BY DAWN...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. CONVECTION SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH
LESS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT.

ELSEWHERE...AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY. VCTS WILL BE CARRIED
AT NC SITES...WHERE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE GREATEST...AND CB
WILL BE CARRIED AT SC SITES. ANY SITE AFFECTED BY A CONVECTIVE CORE
HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR CIG AND VSBY. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS VFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR DAWN VSBY AT KAVL IN FOG...AND MVFR AT KHKY AND
KAND. OF COURSE ANY SITE THAT RECEIVES HEAVY RAINFALL IN CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING WOULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS AT DAWN IN RAIN
MOISTENED AIR. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW THIS EVENING TO NW BY
DAWN...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH FROM THE NORTH. KAND WILL BE THE
EXCEPTION...WITH WESTERLY WINDS REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
CONVECTION SATURDAY WILL BE MOST LIKELY NEAR THE FRONT AT KAND AND
KGMU...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO CARRY CB.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY...STALLING OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE MOVING SOUTH ON MONDAY. AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...FOLLOWED BY MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS WHERE
RAIN FELL THE DAY BEFORE. EXPECT SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS BY MONDAY.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/AVIATION.PHP#TABLE

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
325 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-091930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
325 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP WITH LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...
WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

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