Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
759 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND INTO THE
AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM...MAIN CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE WERE TO POPS FOR THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO REFLECT TRENDS IN RADAR AND LATEST
GUIDANCE. SUBTLE WEAK DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RIPPLE THRU
WLY FLOW ALOFT...WHILE THE LLVLS ARE DOMINATED BY VERY MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. MOST OF THE CWFA HAS BEEN WORKED
OVER WITH CONVECTION...WITH JUST PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE AND SW NC
PIEDMONT LEFT. SO HAVE CUT POP BACK MOST AREAS TO JUST SLGT CHC.
AFTER 06Z...THE ENTIRE CWFA WILL HAVE JUST SLGT CHC POP. ALSO SOME
TWEAKS TO SKY/WIND FOR AVIATION GRIDS. TEMPS/DEWPTS WERE NOT CHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK IMPULSE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS TROUGH LATE TODAY. A SECOND AND STRONGER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH ON FRIDAY....WHILE A COLD FRONT REACHES NC
FROM THE NORTH. DEEP...RICH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...THEN DECREASE
AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. CAPE WILL PEAK AT AROUND
1000 J/KG BOTH AFTERNOONS. MOIST VERTICAL PROFILES WILL LIMIT
DOWNBURST POTENTIAL TODAY. HIGH FREEZING LEVELS WILL LIMIT HAIL
POTENTIAL. ON FRIDAY UPPER LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY...INCREASING SHEAR AND DOWNBURST POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT...DESPITE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL
REMAIN HIGH BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY...WITH LESS OF A LULL
OVERNIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE STRENGTHENING
TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE
SHORT RANGE. SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE WEST. AT THE SFC...WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
IN ON SAT THEN STALLS ACROSS THE SRN CWFA FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER
DAY OF NUMEROUS DIURNAL TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY WITH THE COMBINATION
OF UPPER AND SFC SUPPORT. THAT SAID...CONVECTION COULD LINGER THRU
THE NITE GIVEN THE CONTINUED FORCING. DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
DEVELOP SATURDAY...BUT PROFILES WILL BE RATHER MOIST. THEREFORE...
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE MORE OF A THREAT THAN SVR STORMS. EVEN THO THE
SHORT WAVE WILL STILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...IT WILL BE
SHEARING OUT AS THE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WITH THE FRONT
LINGERING NEAR OR OVER THE AREA...MOISTURE POOLING AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...ALTHOUGH WEAKER THAN
SATURDAY. WARMER MID LEVELS WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN SUGGEST LOWER
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE POOLING AND CONVERGENCE COULD BE
ENUF TO KICK OFF DEEP CONVECTION...ESP ACROSS THE WRN CWFA.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE DIURNAL ISOLATED TSRA. ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS WILL SHOW A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL LOWS
SHOWING A SLIGHT COOLING TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 1205 PM EDT THURSDAY...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION MONDAY. EVEN THO H5 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -4C...SOME ISOLATED
AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS OVER THE MTNS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL. GUIDANCE AGREES ON RIDGE
RETROGRADING THRU THE PERIOD WITH A TROF FORMING IN THE ATLANTIC.
THIS FLOW WILL PUSH A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND WED. THE
BOUNDARY STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH THU. FORCING WILL INCREASE AS WEAK
WAVES MOVE OVER THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL INCREASING THE
INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER/NEAR THE AREA...GFS
ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF KEEP A DIURNAL TREND TO THE PRECIPITATION.
THEREFORE...HAVE MAINLY DIURNAL CHC POP THRU THE PERIOD. HIGHS START
OUT TUE ABOVE NORMAL BUT FALL TO NEAR NORMAL BY THU. LOWS REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIKE LAST NIGHT...VCTS AT TIME OF ISSUANCE WITH OUTFLOWS
CAUSING CHALLENGING FCST FOR OPS. THE CURRENT NWLY WND SHUD CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY FAVOR SLY...AS CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. STILL CLOSE ENUF FOR THUNDER TO BE
HEARD...SO I WILL KEEP TEMPO FOR TS FOR FIRST HOUR. CONVECTION SHUD
WANE BY ARND 03Z. SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT...SO MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBY LATE TNGT. GUIDANCE TRENDING
THAT WAY...SO I BIT THE BAIT AND ADDED A FEW HOURS OF IFR CIGS FRI
MORNING. CONDITIONS SHUD BE VFR BY LATE MORNING...WITH PLENTY OF
CONVECTION AGAIN DURING THE AFTN/EVE. SO HAVE SHRA AND CB IN AFT
18Z. PREVAILING LIGHT SOUTH WINDS FRI.

ELSEWHERE...NO IMMINENT SH OR TS...SO I WILL KEEP CB MENTION FOR
NEXT THREE HOURS. ONLY KAVL AND KHKY HAVE RECEIVED RAIN TODAY...AND
ARE FAVORED SPOTS TO HAVE MORNING FOG. IF ANY STORMS DIRECTLY AFFECT
THE OTHER SITES...THEY MAY HAVE FOG/STRATUS AS WELL. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTN/EVE.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY...STALLING OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE MOVING SOUTH ON MONDAY. AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...FOLLOWED BY MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS WHERE
RAIN FELL THE DAY BEFORE. EXPECT SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS BY MONDAY.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/AVIATION.PHP#TABLE

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
330 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-081930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
330 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE REGION REMAINS VERY MOIST...AND WITH LIGHT SHEAR...MANY
OF THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS AND LOCATIONS
WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. A FEW
OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF...DAMAGING WINDS OVER SMALL AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING...WILL DEVELOP AGAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS SHEAR COULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO CREATE ORGANIZED AREAS OF STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS...AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT LARGE HAIL...WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
747 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011

SCZ009-014-080015-
CHESTER-YORK-
747 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CHESTER AND
SOUTHEASTERN YORK COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM EDT...

AT 745 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF EDGEMOOR...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST
OF CHESTER...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RICHBURG...

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM. IN ADDITION...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS
SUCH AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

LAT...LON 3491 8092 3468 8091 3471 8119 3489 8120

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
755 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011

SCZ009-080030-
YORK-
755 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN YORK COUNTY THROUGH
830 PM EDT...

AT 755 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ROCK HILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TEGA CAY...
  FORT MILL...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3483 8107 3499 8118 3506 8105 3505 8103
      3511 8094 3506 8089 3501 8090 3495 8086
      3491 8086

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
756 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011

NCZ082-080030-
UNION-
756 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY
THROUGH 830 PM EDT...

AT 756 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES EAST OF TRINITY...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF MONROE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  STURDIVANTS...
  MARSHVILLE...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM. IN ADDITION...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS
SUCH AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS
FLOODED ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO
RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3484 8031 3480 8035 3481 8057 3482 8059
      3509 8038 3502 8029

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
811 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CONOVER                 35.71N 81.22W
07/07/2011                   CATAWBA            NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MEDIA RELAYED A REPORT OF AT LEAST THREE TREES DOWN IN
            DOWNTOWN CONOVER.

&&

AKIMBALL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
833 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011

SCZ007-080100-
SPARTANBURG-
833 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN SPARTANBURG COUNTY
THROUGH 900 PM EDT...

AT 833 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF ENOREE...OR 14 MILES NORTH
OF LAURENS...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ENOREE...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3465 8195 3465 8197 3466 8197 3466 8200
      3469 8205 3475 8209 3478 8210 3482 8179
      3468 8182 3460 8185 3460 8191

HG