Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1044 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER IN OUR AREA BEFORE MOVING NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT EARLY IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1430Z...ANOTHER UPSTREAM MCS ENTERING EASTERN TN HAS OUR
ATTENTION. LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SE AND AFFECT THE
NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS...NC PIEDMONT AND FAR EASTERN UPSTATE.
THEREFORE...WILL SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE THE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THOSE AREAS. NOT SURE IF THE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY DUE TO CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDS/REMNANT COLD POOL
CURRENTLY OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NC AND LOWER TEMPS/SBCAPE.
HOWEVER...PIEDMONT AREAS HAVE LESS CLOUDS AND EXPECT INSTABILITY TO
BUILD NORTHWARD AS CLOUDS DISSIPATE.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED WITH BEST
COVERAGE ALONG LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPSTATE INTO NE GA. HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS DUE TO
CLOUDS/REMANT COLD POOL AFFECTS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. A WEAK
FRONT TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD BEHIND THIS
AFTERNOON'S CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT...MCS TRACK WILL BE SHIFTED EASTWARD OUT OF OUR
AREA SO EXPECT CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...20/00Z SHORT RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN
DEPICTING BLDG UPPER RIDGE ATOP THE CWFA ON TUESDAY. THE RESULTANT
VERY WEAK FLOW AND WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL
DEEP CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE FCST SNDGS STILL
LOOK TO REMAIN CAPPED. HOWEVER...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND MOISTURE
POOLING SHUD BE ENUF TO INITIATE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS. THE
HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE AND THE GOING SWATH OF MID TO UPPER 90S MAX
TEMPS LOOK GOOD.

UPPER RIDGING TO GIVE WAY TO FALLING HEIGHTS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ENERGY TO RIDE UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE EASTWARD
SHIFTING RIDGE. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE INFLUX OF INCREASED LAYER
RH...THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS ARE BECOMING MORE
PROBABLE...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE MTNS...BUT SCT CONVECTION COULD
DEVELOP ANYWHERE. IT SHOULD BE THE LAST VERY HOT DAY FOR A SHORT
WHILE AS PIEDMONT MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOLIDLY IN THE MID
90S.

UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY KEEPING SWLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA. THIS KEEPS THE POTENTIAL FOR ENERGY MOVING OVER
THE AREA IN THE SWLY FLOW. CHC OF CONVECTION REMAINS HIGHEST OVER
THE MTNS...BUT SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA BY AFTERNOON. WITH FALLING THICKNESSES...HIGHS FALL TO AROUND
90...WHICH IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS STILL
EXPECTED TO MAKE A MODEST EASTWARD PROGRESSION FRIDAY. PREFER TO
LEAN TOWARD THE LESS AMPLIFIED EVENTUALITY THAT THE ECMWF
SHOWS...BUT AT THIS POINT...AMPLIFICATION QUESTIONS WILL HAVE LITTLE
AFFECT ON THE FCST SENSIBLE WX. WITH THE PRESENCE OF TROFINESS
DEVELOPING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE ENCROACHMENT OF AN
ATTENDANT FRONTAL ZONE...FEEL ABOVE CLIMO POP IS WARRANTED EACH DAY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE EARLY SUMMER NORMALS.

THE PREVIOUS TREND TOWARD DEAMPLIFYING AND FLATTER FLOW ALOFT NEXT
WEEKEND AS SW CONUS RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD AND THE WESTERLIES
RETREAT NORTHWARD...IS STILL SHOWN BY THE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE RETREAT IS MUCH SLOWER AND NOT AS FAR
NORTH. THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE COULD HOLD UP AND LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA INSTEAD OF SHIFT BACK NORTH AS WELL. THIS WOULD MEAN GREATER
PRECIP CHANCES AND POSSIBLY COOLER MAX TEMPS. GIVEN THE
DISCREPANCY...WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AND
DAILY DIURNAL TSTM PROBABILITIES IN THE CHANCE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR WITH ANVIL CIRRUS DEBRIS UNTIL CUMULUS DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
MORE THAN CB AT THIS TIME...AND THE MOST LIKELY AXIS OF CONVECTION
IS SW OF KCLT. LIGHT WNW WINDS TODAY...SHIFTING TO NORTH AND THEN
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. NO SUPPORT FOR
MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS IN GUIDANCE EITHER TODAY OR TUESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...RESTRICTIONS WILL FOLLOW CONVECTION FROM TN BORDER
TOWARD KAVL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VLIFR CIG AND VSBY EXPECTED   IN
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS SW OF KAVL EARLY THIS MORNING FROM RAIN COOLED AIR.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS DAWN MVFR FOG AT KAVL WHERE COOL AIR WILL POOL IN
THE VALLEY. VFR OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. ANVIL DEBRIS CIRRUS WILL
LINGER...AND CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING... LASTING INTO
THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CARRY ANYTHING MORE THAN CB AT ANY TAF SITES.
BEST BET FOR THUNDER WILL BE WHERE INSTABILITY IS
HIGHEST...BASICALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 26. WNW WINDS TODAY SHIFT TO N
AND NE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES. GUIDANCE DOES NOT
SUPPORT MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY AT ANY TAF SITES...BUT DOES
SUPPORT FOG IN THE LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEY SW OF KAVL.

OUTLOOK...MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AT DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE VFR TUE...THEN
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...CSH/RWH
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
617 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-211030-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
617 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA
THIS MORNING MAY SPREAD INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLY THE
PIEDMONT BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER THIS MORNING. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
815 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG OLD FORT                35.63N 82.18W
06/20/2011                   MCDOWELL           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TWO TREES DOWN IN THE OLD FORT AREA...ONE OF WHICH IS
            BLOCKING I-40E AT MILE MARKER 77. ALSO A COUPLE OF TREES
            DOWN IN THE PLEASANT GARDEN AREA.

&&

BSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
852 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

NCZ033-048>050-052-053-056-065-501>506-201330-
AVERY-BUNCOMBE-BURKE MOUNTAINS-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-CATAWBA-EASTERN
MCDOWELL-GREATER BURKE-GREATER
CALDWELL-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCDOWELL
MOUNTAINS-MITCHELL-YANCEY-
852 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL AFFECT BUNCOMBE
...BURKE...CALDWELL...EASTERN HAYWOOD...MADISON...
MCDOWELL...MITCHELL...NORTHWESTERN CATAWBA...NORTHWESTERN HENDERSON
AND YANCEY COUNTIES THROUGH 930 AM EDT...

AT 843 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH
CAROLINA FOOTHILLS. THE GUSTY WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF A GUST FRONT
FRONT FROM DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS WILL TEND TO
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THROUGH
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

LAT...LON 3612 8181 3610 8149 3587 8133 3580 8133
      3579 8128 3569 8121 3538 8287 3577 8299
      3584 8292 3593 8292 3593 8281 3597 8279
      3602 8261 3597 8260 3596 8256 3608 8242
      3616 8215 3611 8208 3620 8199 3623 8190

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
932 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 AM     LIGHTNING        4 NNE FAUST             35.96N 82.50W
06/20/2011                   MADISON            NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HOUSE FIRE STARTED BY LIGHTNING.

0815 AM     LIGHTNING        2 N WALNUT              35.88N 82.74W
06/20/2011                   MADISON            NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HOUSE FIRE STARTED BY LIGHTNING.

&&

BSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1047 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

NCZ033-048>050-201545-
AVERY-MADISON-MITCHELL-YANCEY-
1047 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WIND WILL AFFECT
AVERY...EASTERN MADISON...MITCHELL AND YANCEY COUNTIES THROUGH 1145
AM EDT...

AT 1040 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROAN MOUNTAIN
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS NEAR BURNSVILLE... BULADEAN... SPRUCE
PINE... CROSSNORE... AND NEWLAND.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3621 8190 3620 8185 3605 8174 3596 8181
      3600 8190 3589 8198 3583 8213 3572 8222
      3573 8231 3582 8236 3575 8264 3601 8277
      3607 8263 3604 8259 3597 8260 3596 8256
      3610 8239 3617 8222 3611 8208 3629 8192

LGL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1055 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE ROBBINSVILLE       35.34N 83.78W
06/19/2011                   GRAHAM             NC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            2 TREES DOWN NEAR 1214 MOUNTAIN CREEK ROAD.

1115 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SW ROBBINSVILLE       35.27N 83.87W
06/19/2011                   GRAHAM             NC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            2 TREES DOWN ON STATE ROAD 1122 IN THE SNOWBIRD
            COMMUNITY.

&&

BSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1121 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

NCZ033-048>050-201545-
AVERY-MADISON-MITCHELL-YANCEY-
1121 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

...WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AVERY...EASTERN MADISON...
MITCHELL AND YANCEY COUNTIES THROUGH 1145 AM EDT...

AT 1115 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WAS APPROACHING THE NORTH CAROLINA
BORDER FROM THE NORTHWEST HAS WEAKENED.  HOWEVER... WIND GUSTS OF 30
TO OCCASIONALLY 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS AVERY... MITCHELL...
YANCEY... AND EASTERN MADISON COUNTIES BEFORE 1145 AM AS THE
WEAKENING STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

THE RAIN LEFT OVER FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADS AND AN INCREASE IN WATER LEVELS IN SMALL STREAMS
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

LAT...LON 3628 8189 3621 8190 3607 8174 3596 8181
      3600 8190 3589 8198 3583 8213 3570 8226
      3575 8234 3582 8236 3578 8259 3601 8276
      3607 8262 3597 8260 3596 8256 3612 8237
      3615 8217 3611 8208 3613 8203 3629 8192

LGL