Severe Thunderstorm Warning 426, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1009 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER IN OUR AREA BEFORE MOVING NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT EARLY IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD SVR TSRA WATCH 517 ACROSS WESTERN NC EAST INTO
THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. AT 2Z...A POTENT MCS WAS LOCATED
NEAR CROSSVILLE...IN EAST TN. THE LINE WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND
35 MPH. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE LINE CONTAINS MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH GATHERING DIURNAL CIN. STEERING FLOW WILL BRING
THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN NC AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND AREAS OF LARGE HAIL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
ANTICIPATION OF THE ARRIVAL OF ADDITIONAL MCS/S.

ON MONDAY THE STRONG MCV NOW OVER SRN IN WILL MOVE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES...TURNING THE LLVL WINDS MORE OUT OF THE NW AND
WEAKENING THEM CONSIDERABLY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
OVER THE REGION AND SOME CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. SPC HAS THIS AREA IN A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. CONSIDERING THAT THE LLVL CAPPING INVERSION WILL WORK NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION...WE MAY ONCE AGAIN HAVE TROUBLE INITIATING
CONVECTION. I HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE NE PART OF THE FA TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. IF STORMS DO FORM THEY WILL CERTAINLY HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM SUNDAY...19/12 UTC SHORT RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
IN DEPICTING BLDG UPPER RIDGE ATOP THE CWFA ON TUESDAY. THE
RESULTANT VERY WEAK FLOW AND WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT
DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WHERE THE FCST SNDGS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN CAPPED. THE HEAT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE AND THE GOING SWATH OF MID TO UPPER 90S MAX TEMPS
LOOK GOOD.

UPPER RIDGING TO GIVE WAY TO FALLING HEIGHTS ON WEDNESDAY...AND
THERE WILL EXIST THE POTENTIAL FOR ENERGY TO RIDE UP THE BACKSIDE OF
THE EASTWARD SHIFTING RIDGE. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE INFLUX OF
INCREASED LAYER RH...THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS ARE
BECOMING MORE PROBABLE...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE MTNS. IT SHOULD BE THE
LAST VERY HOT DAY FOR A SHORT WHILE AS PIEDMONT MAX TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SOLIDLY IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM SUNDAY...L/WV TROUGH AXIS ACRS THE CENTRAL CONUS AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD IS STILL EXPECTED TO EXHIBIT A MODEST
EASTWARD PROGRESSION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PREFER TO LEAN TOWARD THE
LESS AMPLIFIED EVENTUALITY THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS...BUT AT THIS
POINT...AMPLIFICATION QUESTIONS WILL HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE FCST
SENSIBLE WX. WITH THE PRESENCE OF TROUGHINESS DEVELOPING INTO
THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE ENCROACHMENT OF AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL
ZONE...FEEL ABOVE CLIMO POP IS WARRANTED EACH DAY AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE EARLY SUMMER NORMALS.

A TREND TOWARD DEAMPLIFYING AND FLATTER FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEKEND AS SW CONUS RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD AND THE WESTERLIES
RETREAT NORTHWARD. WEAK FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SHIFT BACK
NORTH AS WELL. IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PRETTY TYPICAL SUMMER
WEEKEND...MAX TEMPS ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AND DAILY DIURNAL
TSTM PROBABILITIES IN THE CHANCE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...BANDS OF DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PASS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR
AREAS OF RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...I WILL INDICATE MVFR FOG AT KAVL
AND KHKY DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. WNW WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER
SUNRISE MONDAY AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CB WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...BUT PLACEMENT
AND TIMING IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...DRIER AND HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY...THOUGH
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
BETTER CHANCE OF TSTMS...AND RESTRICTIONS...BY WED OR THU.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ033-048>052-058.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...NED/MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
949 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ053-059-062>065-509-510-SCZ001>006-010-
011-210200-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-BUNCOMBE-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
949 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 517 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>508-SCZ007>009-012>014-019-210200-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
949 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ051-052-058-210200-
SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-
949 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 517 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ033-048>050-210200-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
949 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
645 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0551 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CHESTER                 34.71N 81.21W
06/19/2011                   CHESTER            SC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON HILLTOP DR NEAR HIGH SCHOOL, ANOTHER TREE ON
            HOUSE ON LESLIE ST.

&&

TBENTHAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
658 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SANTUC                  34.63N 81.52W
06/15/2011                   UNION              SC   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TREES AND LIMBS DOWN IN SANTUCK.

&&

TBENTHAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
719 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     LIGHTNING        3 NW LONG CREEK         34.80N 83.30W
06/18/2011                   OCONEE             SC   911 CALL CENTER

            *** 2 INJ *** TWO PEOPLE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING ALONG
            CHATTOOGA RIVER AT STATE LINE. TRANSPORTED TO HOSPITAL
            FOR TREATMENT. NO FURTHER DETAILS.

&&

TBENTHAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
838 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GREENVILLE              34.84N 82.37W
06/19/2011                   GREENVILLE         SC   NEWSPAPER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN NEAR THE STREET INTERSECTION OF MAIN
            AND CROFT. ONE TREE CLIPPED A HOUSE. ANOTHER TREE FELL ON
            A COUPLE OF PARKED CARS.

&&

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1001 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

NCZ051-058-062-200415-
SWAIN-GRAHAM-MACON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEROKEE...BRYSON CITY...FRANKLIN
1001 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...

A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE
WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN PART OF NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 11 PM. IF
THE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER...THEY WILL REACH GRAHAM AND SWAIN
COUNTIES AROUND 1115 PM AND MACON COUNTY AFTER 1130 PM. THE STORMS
HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
RESIDENTS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THESE STORMS AND LISTEN FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1052 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

NCZ048>050-053-505-200330-
BUNCOMBE-MADISON-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-MITCHELL-YANCEY-
1052 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MADISON...MCDOWELL...
NORTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE...SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL AND YANCEY COUNTIES
THROUGH 1130 PM EDT...

AT 1050 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WHITEROCK...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF MARSHALL...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PEOPLE IN MADISON...MCDOWELL...NORTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE...SOUTHEASTERN
MITCHELL AND YANCEY COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

MARS HILL AND BARNARDSVILLE...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3602 8260 3597 8260 3596 8257 3600 8248
      3589 8191 3585 8192 3581 8199 3579 8196
      3570 8204 3552 8216 3587 8290 3594 8283
      3593 8281 3602 8275 3604 8270

MOORE