Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
744 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER IN OUR AREA TODAY. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LOW LEVEL JET PROVIDING FORCING OVER A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
MID LEVEL FORCING FROM AN MCS MOVING EWD ARE COMBINING TO PRODUCE
SCT CONVECTION ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO WANE BY MID MORNING AS MIXING ERODES THE
LIFT FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET. THAT SAID...AN MCV FROM THE MCS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SWIFTLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS FORCING COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE
AREA WILL PRODUCE A BKN LINE OF CONVECTION THAN SPREADS ACROSS THE
AREA THRU THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SVR STORMS SEEMS LIKELY
TODAY GIVEN THE FORCING...INSTABILITY...MUCH STRONGER SHEAR AND HIGH
LEVELS OF DCAPE AND SFC DELTA THETA-E. THE MODE OF CONVECTION SHOULD
BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH BOW ECHOES DRIVEN BY DEVELOPING COLD
POOLS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
TIMING OF THE SVR STORMS IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...SO WILL NOT
MENTION ANY SVR IN THE GRIDS...BUT WILL IN THE HWO.

THE CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE ALL AGREES THAT ANOTHER MCV WILL
MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SCT
CONVECTION RETURNING TO MUCH OF NC AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE
IF SVR CHANCE RETURNS WITH THIS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 2 AM EDT SUNDAY...AS AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE TN AND OH
RIVER VALLEYS MONDAY...NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL DIRECT IMPULSES
INTO THE CAROLINAS...WHILE A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH FROM NC
TO VA. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
OUR AREA CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRACK AND THE FRONT...
WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH...PEAKING IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY. ON TUESDAY
OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...WITH UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS
TRACKING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA....AND THE WARM FRONT WELL OFF TO
THE NORTH. INSTABILITY REMAINS...BUT ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS LACKING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT WITH
THE BUILDING AND SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 2 AM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ALONG THE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE A TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED UPSTREAM
OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOVES SLOWLY
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK...AND THE TROUGH AXIS REACHES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY THE WEEKEND. OUR AREA REMAINS IN A WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN THE
FORECAST. FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS LATE FRIDAY...AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. CONVECTION MAY LINGER
SATURDAY IN THE IN PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND DOWNWARD FROM WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...TO NEAR
NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...MTN CONVECTION WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE AIRFIELD THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...PREVIOUS CONVECTION HAS BEEN WEAKENING TO SHRA SO
HAVE LIMITED MENTION TO VCSH AND CB. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO WANE
THIS MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVES IN
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED CB FOR THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME.
THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY
EVENING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND COULD DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. DID NOT
MENTION THIS CONVECTION FOR NOW. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO
CONVECTION MOVING OVER. WINDS WILL STAY SOUTH OF WEST UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...THINKING FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES IS BASICALLY THE SAME
AS FOR CLT. KAVL THE EXCEPTION WHERE CONVECTION WILL MOVE OVER THIS
MORNING...AND KAND WHERE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE SITE.
EXPECT GENERALLY WLY WINDS TODAY WITH LOW END GUSTS FOR THE SC
SITES. KAVL REMAINS NLY. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRIER AND HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
THOUGH ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF TSTMS...AND RESTRICTIONS...BY WED OR THU.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...MCAVOY/RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
920 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-201330-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
920 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WHERE SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS
THE SAME AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO FORM A LINE AND
MOVE INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN RAPIDLY CROSS THE REST OF THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. SHOULD THIS DEVELOP...AREAS OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS WOULD ACCOMPANY THE LINE AS IT CROSSES THE REGION...
ALONG WITH SOME LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.
DISPATCHERS PLEASE BE SURE THAT COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MADE
AWARE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TODAY.

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
959 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

NCZ049-051>053-059-062>065-505>508-191445-
BUNCOMBE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER
RUTHERFORD-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MACON-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN
JACKSON-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN
JACKSON-SWAIN-TRANSYLVANIA-YANCEY-
959 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BUNCOMBE...JACKSON...NORTHEASTERN
MACON...NORTHERN HENDERSON...NORTHERN TRANSYLVANIA...NORTHWESTERN
RUTHERFORD...SOUTHEASTERN YANCEY...SOUTHERN HAYWOOD...SOUTHERN
MCDOWELL AND SOUTHERN SWAIN COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 AM EDT...

AT 951 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WOODLAWN TO BRYSON
CITY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  WOODFIN...
  UNC ASHEVILLE...
  THORPE RESERVOIR...
  CASHIERS...
  ASHEVILLE MALL...
  I-26 AT I-40...

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3580 8220 3552 8184 3548 8194 3555 8200
      3547 8201 3542 8213 3508 8316 3542 8350

LG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1031 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

NCZ056-068-069-502-504-506-508-191515-
CATAWBA-CLEVELAND-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER BURKE-GREATER
CALDWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-LINCOLN-
1031 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN
RUTHERFORD...NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND...NORTHWESTERN
LINCOLN...SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL...SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL...SOUTHERN
BURKE AND WESTERN CATAWBA COUNTIES THROUGH 1115 AM EDT...

AT 1025 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST OF DYSARTSVILLE...OR 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MORGANTON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MORGANTON...
  POLKVILLE...
  CASAR...
  VALDESE...
  RUTHERFORD COLLEGE...
  CONNELLY SPRINGS...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3587 8138 3580 8133 3556 8113 3538 8171
      3568 8202

LG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1045 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

NCZ052-053-064-065-068-505>510-SCZ002-003-007-191515-
BUNCOMBE-CLEVELAND-EASTERN MCDOWELL-EASTERN POLK-GREATER
RUTHERFORD-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MCDOWELL
MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD
MOUNTAINS-SPARTANBURG-TRANSYLVANIA-
1045 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HENDERSON...NORTHERN
GREENVILLE...NORTHERN PICKENS...NORTHWESTERN
SPARTANBURG...POLK...RUTHERFORD...SOUTHEASTERN
BUNCOMBE...SOUTHEASTERN HAYWOOD...SOUTHERN MCDOWELL...TRANSYLVANIA
AND WESTERN CLEVELAND COUNTIES THROUGH 1115 AM EDT...

AT 1037 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF DANA...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF
COLUMBUS...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE LURE...
  SPINDALE...
  FOREST CITY...

SMALL HAIL...INTENSE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3524 8158 3501 8267 3524 8293 3529 8292
      3532 8297 3535 8297 3564 8196

LG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1055 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

NCZ068>070-191530-
CLEVELAND-GASTON-LINCOLN-
1055 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CLEVELAND...LINCOLN AND
NORTHERN GASTON COUNTIES THROUGH 1130 AM EDT...

AT 1046 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF WACO...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SHELBY...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  KINGS MOUNTAIN...
  BESSEMER CITY...
  BOGER CITY...
  DALLAS...
  STANLEY...
  MOUNT HOLLY...

SMALL HAIL...INTENSE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3530 8101 3526 8101 3521 8156 3537 8170
      3556 8110 3555 8108 3533 8098

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1120 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1017 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 N MARS HILL           35.91N 82.53W
06/19/2011                   MADISON            NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2 HOMES ALONG LAUREL VALLY RD FLOODED BY BIG CREEK

&&

PTANNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1121 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

NCZ068-508-SCZ008-009-191545-
CHEROKEE-CLEVELAND-GREATER RUTHERFORD-YORK-
1121 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CHEROKEE...NORTHWESTERN
YORK...SOUTHERN CLEVELAND AND SOUTHERN RUTHERFORD COUNTIES THROUGH
1145 AM EDT...

AT 1115 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CLIFFSIDE...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
RUTHERFORDTON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BOILING SPRINGS NC...
  EARL...
  BLACKSBURG...
  KINGS MOUNTAIN...

SMALL HAIL...INTENSE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

IF OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES.
MOVE INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND
DOORS AND AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO
UNPLUG UNNECESSARY ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM
APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3506 8121 3517 8187 3519 8188 3518 8197
      3526 8197 3538 8190 3542 8148 3520 8132
      3516 8133 3516 8129

LG