Severe Thunderstorm Warning 420, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
345 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER IN OUR AREA TODAY. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LOW LEVEL JET PROVIDING FORCING OVER A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
MID LEVEL FORCING FROM AN MCS MOVING EWD ARE COMBINING TO PRODUCE
SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE TN/KY BORDER. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NC MTNS AS WELL. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO WANE
AFTER DAYBREAK. THAT SAID...AN MCV FROM THE MCS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SWIFTLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS FORCING COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA WILL
PRODUCE A BKN LINE OF CONVECTION THAN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA THRU
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SVR STORMS SEEMS LIKELY TODAY GIVEN
THE FORCING...INSTABILITY...MUCH STRONGER SHEAR AND HIGH LEVELS OF
DCAPE AND SFC DELTA THETA-E. THE MODE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH BOW ECHOES DRIVEN BY DEVELOPING COLD POOLS.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. TIMING OF
THE SVR STORMS IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...SO WILL NOT MENTION
ANY SVR IN THE GRIDS...BUT WILL IN THE HWO.

THE CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE ALL AGREES THAT ANOTHER MCV WILL
MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SCT
CONVECTION RETURNING TO MUCH OF NC AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE
IF SVR CHANCE RETURNS WITH THIS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 2 AM EDT SUNDAY...AS AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE TN AND OH
RIVER VALLEYS MONDAY...NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL DIRECT IMPULSES
INTO THE CAROLINAS...WHILE A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH FROM NC
TO VA. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
OUR AREA CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRACK AND THE FRONT...
WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH...PEAKING IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY. ON TUESDAY
OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...WITH UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS
TRACKING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA....AND THE WARM FRONT WELL OFF TO
THE NORTH. INSTABILITY REMAINS...BUT ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS LACKING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT WITH
THE BUILDING AND SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 2 AM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ALONG THE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE A TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED UPSTREAM
OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOVES SLOWLY
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK...AND THE TROUGH AXIS REACHES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY THE WEEKEND. OUR AREA REMAINS IN A WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN THE
FORECAST. FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS LATE FRIDAY...AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. CONVECTION MAY LINGER
SATURDAY IN THE IN PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND DOWNWARD FROM WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...TO NEAR
NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
THRU DAYBREAK WITH LIGHT S WIND CONTINUING. CANNOT RULE OUT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FOG RESTRICTION NEAR DAYBREAK BECAUSE OF THE WET
GROUND AND FAIRLY LIGHT WIND. ANY RESTRICTION WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE. THERE COULD BE A SIMILAR TREND IN TERMS OF CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION COULD BE FARTHER
NORTH. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW. WIND SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY S OF W THRU THE DAY...THEN RETURN TO LIGHT SLY FOR THE
EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...THINKING FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES IS BASICALLY THE SAME
AS FOR CLT WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS THE RULE. IFR MTN
VALLEY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THE NITE. PATCHY
FOG WITH SOME IFR RESTRICTIONS HAVE DEVELOPED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS.
WILL HAVE TO HANDLE THESE AREAS WITH AMDS. THAT SAID...THE
DEVELOPING CONVECTION COULD DISRUPT THE USUAL FOG DIURNAL TRENDS.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS BECOME WLY THRU THE DAY WITH LOW END GUSTS
POSSIBLE. WINDS DIMINISH FOR THE EVENING. KAVL THE EXCEPTION WITH N
TO NW WIND THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...DRIER AND HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
THOUGH ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF TSTMS...AND RESTRICTIONS...BY WED OR THU.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
514 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-200915-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
514 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO FORM A LINE AND
MOVE INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN RAPIDLY CROSS THE REST OF THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. SHOULD THIS DEVELOP...AREAS OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS WOULD ACCOMPANY THE LINE AS IT CROSSES THE REGION...
ALONG WITH SOME LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
436 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

NCZ048-049-053-190915-
BUNCOMBE-MADISON-YANCEY-
436 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MADISON...NORTHERN BUNCOMBE AND
SOUTHERN YANCEY COUNTIES THROUGH 515 AM EDT...

AT 430 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOT SPRINGS...OR 12 MILES
WEST OF MARSHALL...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  WEAVERVILLE...WALNUT...SWANNANOA...SPRING CREEK...MOUNT MITCHELL
  STATE PARK...MONTREAT...MARSHALL...MARS HILL...HOT SPRINGS...
  BUSICK...BLACK MOUNTAIN AND BARNARDSVILLE.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3595 8284 3593 8282 3594 8280 3583 8215
      3573 8220 3570 8226 3571 8228 3569 8230
      3563 8227 3560 8229 3558 8227 3554 8228
      3579 8296 3588 8291 3595 8290

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
442 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

SCZ006-007-012-013-190930-
GREATER GREENVILLE-LAURENS-SPARTANBURG-UNION-
442 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN GREENVILLE...
NORTHWESTERN LAURENS...SOUTHERN SPARTANBURG AND WESTERN UNION
COUNTIES THROUGH 530 AM EDT...

AT 437 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PELHAM ROAD AT I-85...OR 9 MILES EAST OF
DOWNTOWN GREENVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PELHAM ROAD
  AT I-85...SHOPS AT GREENRIDGE...GSP AIRPORT...FIVE FORKS...
  WOODRUFF...UNION...SEDALIA...ROEBUCK...REIDVILLE...PAULINE...
  MOORE...MONARCH MILLS...MAULDIN...JONESVILLE...ENOREE...CROSS
  KEYS...CROSS ANCHOR AND BUFFALO.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3475 8233 3494 8228 3487 8151 3454 8162

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
457 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

NCZ048-052-053-190945-
BUNCOMBE-HAYWOOD-MADISON-
457 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN BUNCOMBE...
NORTHWESTERN HAYWOOD AND SOUTHERN MADISON COUNTIES THROUGH 545 AM
EDT...

AT 450 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HARTFORD...OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF NEWPORT...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WOODFIN...
  WEAVERVILLE...WATERVILLE...WALNUT...SPRING CREEK...MARSHALL...MARS
  HILL...LUCK...LEICESTER...CANTO AND BARNARDSVILLE.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3585 8242 3583 8242 3581 8240 3561 8242
      3571 8320 3573 8320 3577 8316 3578 8310
      3580 8308 3578 8299 3584 8292 3588 8291

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
612 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NW MARSHALL           35.85N 82.75W
06/19/2011                   MADISON            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON GARAGE IN WALNUT COMMUNITY.

&&

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
653 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

NCZ048>050-053-191145-
BUNCOMBE-MADISON-MITCHELL-YANCEY-
653 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE...
NORTHEASTERN MADISON...SOUTHERN MITCHELL AND YANCEY COUNTIES THROUGH
745 AM EDT...

AT 649 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WHITEROCK...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF MARSHALL...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  WHITEROCK...SWISS...RAMSEYTOWN...MOUNT MITCHELL STATE PARK...
  MICAVILLE...MARS HILL...LEDGER...FAUST...CELO...BUSICK...
  BURNSVILLE...BARNARDSVILLE...BANDANA AND ALLENSTAND.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3606 8261 3604 8259 3597 8260 3596 8257
      3598 8251 3604 8244 3600 8206 3597 8205
      3579 8217 3576 8217 3570 8226 3570 8229
      3590 8279 3602 8274 3607 8266

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
701 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

NCZ048-052-053-191145-
BUNCOMBE-HAYWOOD-MADISON-
701 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN BUNCOMBE...NORTHERN
HAYWOOD AND SOUTHERN MADISON COUNTIES THROUGH 745 AM EDT...

AT 658 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROUND MOUNTAIN...OR 14 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF NEWPORT...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  WEAVERVILLE...WALNUT...SPRING CREEK...MARSHALL...MARS HILL...
  LUCK...HOT SPRINGS...CANTO AND BARNARDSVILLE.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3589 8244 3586 8242 3582 8241 3582 8237
      3564 8239 3573 8311 3578 8310 3580 8308
      3580 8305 3578 8299 3584 8292 3591 8291

07