Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
345 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER IN OUR AREA TODAY. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LOW LEVEL JET PROVIDING FORCING OVER A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
MID LEVEL FORCING FROM AN MCS MOVING EWD ARE COMBINING TO PRODUCE
SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE TN/KY BORDER. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NC MTNS AS WELL. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO WANE
AFTER DAYBREAK. THAT SAID...AN MCV FROM THE MCS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SWIFTLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS FORCING COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA WILL
PRODUCE A BKN LINE OF CONVECTION THAN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA THRU
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SVR STORMS SEEMS LIKELY TODAY GIVEN
THE FORCING...INSTABILITY...MUCH STRONGER SHEAR AND HIGH LEVELS OF
DCAPE AND SFC DELTA THETA-E. THE MODE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH BOW ECHOES DRIVEN BY DEVELOPING COLD POOLS.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. TIMING OF
THE SVR STORMS IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...SO WILL NOT MENTION
ANY SVR IN THE GRIDS...BUT WILL IN THE HWO.

THE CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE ALL AGREES THAT ANOTHER MCV WILL
MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SCT
CONVECTION RETURNING TO MUCH OF NC AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE
IF SVR CHANCE RETURNS WITH THIS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 2 AM EDT SUNDAY...AS AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE TN AND OH
RIVER VALLEYS MONDAY...NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL DIRECT IMPULSES
INTO THE CAROLINAS...WHILE A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH FROM NC
TO VA. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
OUR AREA CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRACK AND THE FRONT...
WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH...PEAKING IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY. ON TUESDAY
OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...WITH UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS
TRACKING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA....AND THE WARM FRONT WELL OFF TO
THE NORTH. INSTABILITY REMAINS...BUT ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS LACKING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT WITH
THE BUILDING AND SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 2 AM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ALONG THE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE A TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED UPSTREAM
OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOVES SLOWLY
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK...AND THE TROUGH AXIS REACHES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY THE WEEKEND. OUR AREA REMAINS IN A WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN THE
FORECAST. FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS LATE FRIDAY...AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. CONVECTION MAY LINGER
SATURDAY IN THE IN PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND DOWNWARD FROM WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...TO NEAR
NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
THRU DAYBREAK WITH LIGHT S WIND CONTINUING. CANNOT RULE OUT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FOG RESTRICTION NEAR DAYBREAK BECAUSE OF THE WET
GROUND AND FAIRLY LIGHT WIND. ANY RESTRICTION WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE. THERE COULD BE A SIMILAR TREND IN TERMS OF CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION COULD BE FARTHER
NORTH. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW. WIND SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY S OF W THRU THE DAY...THEN RETURN TO LIGHT SLY FOR THE
EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...THINKING FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES IS BASICALLY THE SAME
AS FOR CLT WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS THE RULE. IFR MTN
VALLEY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THE NITE. PATCHY
FOG WITH SOME IFR RESTRICTIONS HAVE DEVELOPED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS.
WILL HAVE TO HANDLE THESE AREAS WITH AMDS. THAT SAID...THE
DEVELOPING CONVECTION COULD DISRUPT THE USUAL FOG DIURNAL TRENDS.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS BECOME WLY THRU THE DAY WITH LOW END GUSTS
POSSIBLE. WINDS DIMINISH FOR THE EVENING. KAVL THE EXCEPTION WITH N
TO NW WIND THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...DRIER AND HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
THOUGH ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF TSTMS...AND RESTRICTIONS...BY WED OR THU.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
959 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-200200-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
959 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
436 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

NCZ048-049-053-190915-
BUNCOMBE-MADISON-YANCEY-
436 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MADISON...NORTHERN BUNCOMBE AND
SOUTHERN YANCEY COUNTIES THROUGH 515 AM EDT...

AT 430 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOT SPRINGS...OR 12 MILES
WEST OF MARSHALL...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  WEAVERVILLE...WALNUT...SWANNANOA...SPRING CREEK...MOUNT MITCHELL
  STATE PARK...MONTREAT...MARSHALL...MARS HILL...HOT SPRINGS...
  BUSICK...BLACK MOUNTAIN AND BARNARDSVILLE.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3595 8284 3593 8282 3594 8280 3583 8215
      3573 8220 3570 8226 3571 8228 3569 8230
      3563 8227 3560 8229 3558 8227 3554 8228
      3579 8296 3588 8291 3595 8290

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
442 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

SCZ006-007-012-013-190930-
GREATER GREENVILLE-LAURENS-SPARTANBURG-UNION-
442 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN GREENVILLE...
NORTHWESTERN LAURENS...SOUTHERN SPARTANBURG AND WESTERN UNION
COUNTIES THROUGH 530 AM EDT...

AT 437 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PELHAM ROAD AT I-85...OR 9 MILES EAST OF
DOWNTOWN GREENVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PELHAM ROAD
  AT I-85...SHOPS AT GREENRIDGE...GSP AIRPORT...FIVE FORKS...
  WOODRUFF...UNION...SEDALIA...ROEBUCK...REIDVILLE...PAULINE...
  MOORE...MONARCH MILLS...MAULDIN...JONESVILLE...ENOREE...CROSS
  KEYS...CROSS ANCHOR AND BUFFALO.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3475 8233 3494 8228 3487 8151 3454 8162

07